Is Taiwan Semiconductor Stock Going to $500?

Core Viewpoint - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is a leading player in the global AI infrastructure ecosystem, manufacturing chips for major AI chip designers [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - TSMC stock has gained 104% over the past year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 15% gain [2] - Current trading price of TSMC shares is $370, raising questions about the sustainability of this momentum and the potential to reach $500 [2] Group 2: Earnings Growth - TSMC reported a 51% increase in earnings for 2025, reaching $10.65 per share, driven by a 36% increase in revenue [4] - The company's earnings growth is attributed to strong pricing power, with expectations of a 34% increase in earnings this year [9] Group 3: Market Position - TSMC holds a 72% share in the pure-play foundry market and over a third of the Foundry 2.0 market, which includes additional services beyond traditional foundry operations [6] - The company's share of the Foundry 2.0 market increased to 39% in Q3 2025, up six percentage points from the previous year [7] Group 4: Future Projections - Analysts expect TSMC's revenue to increase by 30% this year, with AI accelerator revenue projected to grow at a mid-to-high 50% range through 2029 [11] - TSMC's earnings could reach $19.24 per share by 2028, with potential for faster growth leading to a stock price of $500 if trading at 25 times earnings [12][13]