Can NVIDIA Shares Hit $500 By 2030?

Core Viewpoint - NVIDIA's stock price could potentially reach $500 by 2030 if the company achieves an adjusted EPS of $20 to $25, despite current trading at $177.82 and facing challenges in share price growth due to market skepticism about AI spending sustainability [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Projections - NVIDIA's revenue and adjusted EPS estimates for the upcoming fiscal years are as follows: FY2027 at $366 billion and $8.25 EPS, FY2028 at $465 billion and $10.74 EPS, FY2029 at $548 billion and $12.85 EPS, and FY2030 at $601 billion and $12.31 EPS [1]. - The company delivered a revenue of $215.9 billion and adjusted EPS of $4.77 in the past 12 months, indicating significant growth potential [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Current market conditions show NVIDIA shares are down 4.65% in 2026, despite positive news regarding hyperscaler spending and strong earnings [1]. - The aggressive spending plans of hyperscalers have created a paradox, as they are deploying most of their free cash flow into AI infrastructure, which may limit further investment without new revenue generation [1][2]. Group 3: EPS Estimates and Growth Potential - Analysts currently underestimate NVIDIA's EPS, with predictions of $9 to $10 for the current fiscal year, which could lead to higher EPS estimates for FY2028 and FY2029 if growth continues [1]. - For NVIDIA to reach the $500 target, it would need to generate adjusted EPS of at least $20 to $25, which would imply a trading multiple of 20x to 25x EPS [1]. Group 4: Current Valuation - At a price of $177.82, NVIDIA trades at approximately 18x the next-year EPS estimate of $9 to $10, which is below market averages for a company expected to double profits year-over-year [1]. - The trailing P/E ratio is 37x, but the forward multiple is expected to compress as earnings scale [1].