Ge Long Hui·2026-03-09 23:14Company Overview - The recent communication with Bosideng's management indicated that the brand's down jacket business performed slightly below previous expectations due to fluctuations in seasonal temperatures and retail environment [1] - The OEM business is expected to decline in FY26 due to tariff fluctuations [1] Business Performance - Despite the challenging environment, the down jacket business is expected to achieve mid to high single-digit growth in FY26, with the main brand projected to see mid single-digit growth [1] - The successful launch of new product lines, such as extreme cold and puff jackets, along with collaborations like KJ, is anticipated to increase the new product sales ratio to 85% and slightly raise product prices, reflecting Bosideng's brand strength [1] - The Xuezhongfei brand is expected to perform well online, with revenue projected to grow at a high double-digit rate [1] Channel Performance - Online business is expected to perform exceptionally well, benefiting from the rapid enhancement of product content and variety on platforms like Douyin [1] - The offline business is expected to remain stable, with same-store sales projected to increase year-on-year [1] Inventory and Profitability - The company is expected to maintain healthy inventory levels, which will support good discount levels [2] - Despite challenges in revenue, the profit growth rate is anticipated to exceed the revenue growth rate, with the main brand's gross margin expected to remain stable [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The EPS forecast for FY26/27 has been revised down by 6%/9% to 0.32/0.34 yuan, with the current stock price corresponding to 13/12 times FY26/27 earnings [2] - The target price has been reduced by 4% to 5.65 yuan, corresponding to 16/15 times FY26/27 earnings, maintaining an outperform rating with a 21% upside potential from the current stock price [2]