Ge Long Hui·2026-03-09 23:14Core Viewpoint - ASMPT's 4Q25 performance exceeded expectations, driven primarily by TCB, with revenue reaching HKD 39.59 billion (USD 5.09 billion) [1] Financial Performance - 4Q25 order volume was USD 500 million, supported by TCB and SMT's mainstream business; gross margin was 35.8%; net profit was HKD 11.1 billion, with adjusted profit at HKD 1.2 billion [1] - For 2025, revenue is projected at HKD 137.36 billion (USD 17.6 billion) with a net profit of HKD 9.02 billion; orders are expected to reach USD 1.86 billion, with a shipment ratio of 1.05 [1] - The company anticipates 1Q26 revenue between USD 470 million and USD 530 million [1] Business Development Trends - The growth in orders for 2025 is primarily attributed to TCB, with a projected market size of USD 1.6 billion by 2028, aiming for a market share of 35-40%, equating to USD 560-640 million [1] - TCB equipment is expected to remain the fastest-growing segment for the company, considering applications in logic chips and ongoing validation of HBM technologies [1] Market Analysis - In 2025, advanced packaging (AP) is expected to contribute 30% to the company's revenue, up from 26% in 2024; the computer (including HPC) segment will account for 22% of revenue, while automotive revenue share is projected to decrease from 21% in 2024 to 16% [2] Asset Changes - The company plans to divest the ASMPTNEXX business, which focuses on middle-end packaging equipment, with expected revenue of HKD 785 million in 2025; the sale is anticipated to be completed by 2026 [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2026 remains largely unchanged, with the introduction of a 2027 forecast of HKD 168.30 billion in revenue and HKD 17.07 billion in profit; the current stock price corresponds to a 29.7x 2026E PE [2] - The target price has been raised by 50% to HKD 135, reflecting a 36x 2026E PE, indicating a 22% upside potential [2]