Ge Long Hui·2026-03-12 06:26Core Viewpoint - Daiwa's report indicates that China Resources Beer forecasts a net profit of 2.92 billion to 3.35 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 30% to 39% [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - Excluding the impairment of the liquor business, the estimated net profit for the year is between 5.89 billion to 6.14 billion yuan, with the median being 5% higher than Daiwa's expectation of 5.74 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The service-oriented consumption, primarily in dining, performed better than market expectations in February, potentially boosting the recovery of beer consumption in on-premise channels [1] - The industry is expected to benefit from a low base effect due to the "anti-waste" initiative starting in May, paving the way for potentially better-than-expected performance during the summer beer consumption peak [1] Group 3: Investment Recommendation - Daiwa maintains China Resources Beer as its top pick in the industry due to high visibility in product mix and average price upgrades, primarily benefiting from the strong growth momentum of the premium brand Heineken and a higher-than-industry share of home channel sales [1] - The "buy" rating is reiterated with a target price of 36 HKD [1]