Where Could Tesla Be in 3 Years? The Base Case.

Core Insights - Tesla is expected to evolve into a mature EV leader by 2028, with emerging autonomy revenue, but will still be in transition rather than experiencing dramatic changes or collapse [1] EV Business Outlook - By 2028, Tesla's EV segment is likely to stabilize, moving away from hypergrowth due to increased competition from Chinese manufacturers, legacy automakers, and new entrants, which will keep pricing pressure elevated [5] - Delivery growth is projected to settle in the mid-single to low double-digit range annually, with sales expected to reach around 3 million units in 2029, up from 1.6 million units in 2025 [6] - Margins are expected to stabilize below the peak levels of 2021 to 2022 but remain healthy enough to generate consistent free cash flow [6] Funding Future Phases - The EV business does not need to return to explosive growth; it needs to fund the company's next phase without stressing the balance sheet [7] Autonomous Vehicle Development - The biggest factor influencing Tesla over the next three years will be the development of autonomous vehicles [8] - The robotaxi initiative is expected to expand beyond limited pilot programs into multiple U.S. metro areas, with regulatory approvals gradually broadening [9] - By 2028, robotaxi revenue may start contributing to Tesla's services segment, although it will still account for a small fraction of total revenue [10]