Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-03-13 08:02Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that Li Auto (02015) aims for a sales growth of over 20% by 2026, with an expected vehicle gross margin of 15% for the year [1] - Citigroup has maintained a neutral rating and a target price of HKD 72.7 for Li Auto [1] - Li Auto's Q4 2025 net profit was reported at RMB 20 million, which fell short of the market consensus expectation of RMB 140 million [1] Group 2 - The sales guidance for Q1 2026 is set between 85,000 to 90,000 units, aligning with expectations, while total revenue is projected to be between RMB 20.4 billion and RMB 21.6 billion [1] - The average selling price of vehicles is expected to decline by 9% quarter-on-quarter to RMB 227,000, which is at the high end of the guidance [1] - Citigroup has kept the sales forecasts for 2026 and 2027 unchanged at 430,000 and 468,000 units, respectively, along with revenue forecasts of RMB 112.7 billion and RMB 114.5 billion [2] Group 3 - The forecasted vehicle gross margins for 2026 and 2027 have been reduced by 0.3 to 1.7 percentage points to 15.1% and 16.4%, respectively, reflecting updated guidance [2] - Operating expenses have been adjusted upwards to account for increased investments in embodied artificial intelligence, with projected sales, general, and administrative expenses as well as R&D expenses as a percentage of revenue for 2026 to 2028 being 19.5%, 17.4%, and 16.3% respectively [2] - Consequently, the forecasted net profits for Li Auto in 2026 and 2027 have been revised from RMB 1.85 billion and RMB 2.58 billion to a loss of RMB 2.02 billion and a profit of RMB 1.22 billion [2]