中国银河证券:AI推升VC和金刚石散热需求 国产替代仍具备广阔市场空间
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-03-16 01:52

Core Insights - The domestic thermal materials industry in China has formed a clustering effect in fields such as TIM, ceramic substrates, and liquid cooling materials, with significant potential for domestic substitution [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - The thermal materials industry chain consists of upstream raw materials, midstream device manufacturing, and downstream applications, characterized by high barriers in upstream, high value in midstream, and strong demand in downstream [1] - Upstream raw materials include high-purity ceramic powders (AlN/BN/SiC/diamond), carbon-based materials (graphene/CNT/graphite), metal materials (copper/aluminum/copper alloys/tantalum), and liquid cooling working fluids (fluorinated liquids/synthetic esters/water-based liquids) [1] - Major players in the first tier of thermal materials are concentrated in Europe, America, and Japan, while the second tier includes domestic companies like Zhongshi Technology, Feirongda, Zhongci Electronics, Sanhuan Group, and Tianyue Advanced, focusing on TIM, ceramic substrates, and liquid cooling materials [1] Group 2: Key Technologies - VC vapor chamber and graphite film have become the preferred cooling solutions for AI smartphones, with VC vapor chambers offering a heat transfer efficiency that significantly increases the heat dissipation area by 5 to 8 times compared to traditional solid thermal methods [2] - The thermal conductivity of VC vapor chambers ranges from 0.2 to 50 KW/mK, while that of heat pipes is approximately 10 to 100 KW/mK, and liquid cooling plates range from 1 to 5 KW/m*K [2] Group 3: Emerging Materials - Diamond alloy materials are expected to be promoted in high-power AI chip cooling, with diamond being an excellent heat sink material when thermal conductivity requirements exceed 500 W/m·K [3] - CVD polycrystalline diamond is highlighted as an ideal cooling solution for the high computing power era, with a thermal conductivity of 2000-2200 W/(m·K) compared to copper's 380-400 W/(m·K) [3] - The global diamond cooling market is projected to reach 17.2 to 48.3 billion yuan by 2028, benefiting related enterprises [3] Group 4: Advanced Cooling Solutions - Thermoelectric cooling offers precise temperature control with no moving parts and rapid response, penetrating applications in AI optical modules, medical devices, lasers, and automotive sectors [4] - Liquid metal cooling, utilizing gallium-based, indium-based, and bismuth-based alloys, provides a thermal conductivity of 15-73 W/(m·K), significantly improving upon traditional silicone grease by 5-10 times, making it crucial for high-power density cooling in AI servers and high-end consumer electronics [4]