Core Viewpoint - In 2025, JD Logistics is projected to achieve a revenue of 217.147 billion yuan, representing an 18.8% year-on-year growth, while adjusted net profit is expected to decline by 2.6% to 7.711 billion yuan [1] Revenue Growth - The revenue growth in 2025 is significantly higher than the 9.7% growth in 2024, primarily driven by the rapid increase in instant delivery services [1] - Revenue from JD Group is expected to reach 80.31 billion yuan, a 45.9% increase year-on-year, while revenue from external customers is projected to be 136.83 billion yuan, growing by 7.1% [1] - The proportion of revenue from external customers has decreased to approximately 63% [1] Cost and Profitability - Operating costs for 2025 are estimated at 164.1 billion yuan, reflecting a 20.3% increase, slightly outpacing revenue growth [2] - The gross margin is expected to decline from 10.2% in the previous year to 9.1% due to high employee compensation and outsourcing costs, which increased by 29.8% and 16.4% respectively [2] - The company anticipates that profit margins will improve as the scale effects of the instant delivery business materialize [2] International Expansion - The company successfully doubled its self-operated overseas warehouse area in 2025, enhancing its fulfillment capabilities with a total management area of nearly 2 million square meters across 25 countries and regions [2] - Positive progress has been made in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, and Asia-Pacific, driving high growth in overseas business [2] Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company expects continued improvement in performance as the scale effects of the instant delivery business are gradually realized [2] - Projected net profits for 2026-2028 are 8.0 billion, 9.28 billion, and 10.32 billion yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 10.4X, 9.0X, and 8.1X, maintaining a "recommend" rating [2]
京东物流(02618.HK)：即时配送业务带动营收高增 看好26年规模效应释放