Ollie’s Stock Won’t Stay a Bargain Much Longer

Core Insights - Ollie's Bargain Outlet's stock price downtrend is over, with Q4 2025 results reaffirming a robust outlook despite slight misses on consensus forecasts [2] - Analysts at RBC highlight the company's aggressive expansion and potential for outperformance, particularly due to the Big Lots bankruptcy creating a customer conversion opportunity [3] - Ollie's reported $779.26 million in net revenue, a 16.8% year-over-year increase, with comp-store sales growth of 3.6% and a 15.4% increase in store count [3] Financial Performance - Revenue growth fell short of consensus estimates, but the company's performance outpaced competitors, driven by better-than-expected comp and store-count growth [3] - Adjusted EPS missed consensus by two cents, but earnings growth outpaced revenue growth, indicating solid margin control and revenue leverage [4] - Guidance for future revenue is projected between $2.985 billion and $3.013 billion, with an earnings midpoint of $4.45, both slightly below consensus expectations [4] Market Position - The Big Lots bankruptcy is seen as a multi-year event that will benefit Ollie's, with analysts believing this opportunity is not yet reflected in the stock price [5] - Institutional investors own nearly all of the float and have been consistent buyers, supporting a company that funds its own growth and trades below analyst targets [5]