Citi(US:C) Reuters·2026-03-17 08:23Core Viewpoint - Citigroup has reduced its 12-month price forecasts for bitcoin and ethereum due to stalled U.S. legislative progress, which limits potential regulatory catalysts that could enhance ETF-driven demand and institutional adoption [1][2]. Price Forecasts - The 12-month bitcoin price forecast has been lowered to $112,000 from $143,000, while the ethereum estimate has been adjusted to $3,175 from $4,304 [2]. - Current trading prices are approximately $74,298.11 for bitcoin and $2,345.51 for ethereum [3]. Market Conditions - Under a recessionary macro backdrop, bitcoin could potentially drop to $58,000 and ether to $1,198, while a bullish scenario could see bitcoin rise to $165,000 and ether to $4,488 [3]. - Bitcoin is expected to trade within a range, with $70,000 identified as a significant price level ahead of the U.S. elections [6]. Legislative Environment - Progress on U.S. crypto market-structure legislation has stalled, particularly regarding the Clarity Act, due to disagreements on stablecoin regulations and a diminishing window for approval by 2026 [2][4]. - The likelihood of passing a crypto bill may decrease if Democrats gain seats in the upcoming mid-term elections, as they are more divided on cryptocurrency regulations [4][5]. User Activity and Market Trends - Ethereum's performance is particularly sensitive to user activity metrics, which have recently shown weakness; however, trends in stablecoins and tokenization may drive renewed interest and usage [4].