Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-03-18 06:37Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports that Li Auto-W (02015) has met expectations for Q4 2025 performance, but the guidance for Q1 2026 and full-year sales and gross margin is below expectations [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Li Auto's Q4 2025 performance aligns with expectations, but the guidance for Q1 2026 and the full year is disappointing [1] - Goldman Sachs has lowered the target price for Li Auto from HKD 93 to HKD 74 and downgraded the rating from "Buy" to "Neutral" [1] Group 2: Sales and Profitability Forecast - The firm anticipates that Li Auto will experience two consecutive quarters of expanded net losses, with sluggish sales growth and pressured vehicle gross margins [1] - The decline in performance is attributed to a lack of new model launches, rising raw material and memory costs, and an increased proportion of low-margin models [1] Group 3: Revised Projections - Following Li Auto's Q4 2025 results, Goldman Sachs has revised its sales forecasts for 2026 to 2028 down by 5% to 22% [1] - The gross margin forecast has been adjusted down by 0.4 to 1.0 percentage points due to lower-than-expected guidance for Q1 2026 and the full year, along with reduced sales and revenue [1] - Consequently, the net profit forecast has been reduced by 21% to 34% [1]