Ge Long Hui·2026-03-18 07:22Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that due to a warmer winter, the main brand's revenue growth is expected to be stable but slightly below previous expectations, with a projected revenue increase of approximately mid-single digits for the full year [1] - The average temperature in China for the winter of 2025 is forecasted to be -1.54℃, which is 1.51℃ higher than the historical average, marking it as the second warmest winter since 1961 [1] - For FY26H1, the main brand's revenue reached 5.719 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, but FY26H2 revenue growth is anticipated to slow down due to the warm winter [1] Group 2 - The main brand maintains high operational quality, with the launch of the AREAL series in collaboration with designer KIM JONES, positioning it as a high-end urban line with an average product price above 2,600 yuan [2] - The brand's sales structure is expected to show significant growth across three key product series: extreme cold, puff, and non-extreme cold outdoor series, which, along with the KJ series, is likely to enhance the average selling price (ASP) [2] - OEM business revenue for FY26H1 was 2.044 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.7%, primarily due to the impact of the 2025 tariff policy, which led to some orders being advanced to March [2] Group 3 - Profit forecasts for FY26-28 have been adjusted downwards due to the main brand's sales being slightly lower than expected and temporary pressure on OEM business, with net profit estimates revised to 3.71 billion, 4.03 billion, and 4.39 billion yuan respectively [3] - The company is expected to maintain a robust growth trend in the long term due to its strong brand assets and operational management capabilities [3] - The company has a high dividend payout ratio, consistently above 80% over the past four years, leading to a current dividend yield of over 7% based on an 80% payout ratio, maintaining a "buy" rating [3]