Wolfe Research: Nvidia’s $1T Orders Guidance Is a Floor, Not a Ceiling

Core Insights - NVIDIA's CEO announced that purchase orders for the Blackwell and Vera Rubin platforms are expected to reach $1 trillion, which is seen as a significant milestone for the company [2][5] - Wolfe Research analyst Chris Caso believes that this $1 trillion figure represents a floor rather than a ceiling, suggesting that current market estimates may be conservative [3][6] Financial Performance - NVIDIA reported Q4 FY2026 revenue of $68.13 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 73.2%, with Data Center revenue accounting for $62.31 billion, or 91% of total revenue [7][8] - Data Center Networking revenue grew by 263% year-over-year, reaching $10.98 billion, indicating strong demand for the full NVLink stack [7] - The company's full-year free cash flow was reported at $96.58 billion [7][8] Future Outlook - The $1 trillion order figure expands the visibility of orders to cover 2025, 2026, and 2027, with the 2027 order book still open as hyperscalers and enterprises continue to sign deals [5][8] - Current consensus estimates for 2027 are likely understated, as the order book is not yet closed and further growth is anticipated [6][8]