Ge Long Hui·2026-03-19 23:21Core Viewpoint - In 2025, Geely's total revenue is expected to increase by 25.1% year-on-year to CNY 345.23 billion, with a gross margin remaining stable at 16.6% and a net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 0.2% to CNY 16.85 billion, while core net profit is projected to grow by 36% to CNY 14.41 billion [1] Group 1 - Geely's total sales are projected to increase by 39.0% year-on-year to 3.025 million units in 2025, with new energy vehicle (NEV) sales expected to rise by 90% to 1.688 million units, accounting for 55.8% of total sales, an increase of 15 percentage points [2] - The sales forecast for 2026 indicates a steady growth target of 3.45 million units, representing a 14% year-on-year increase, driven by the expansion of luxury products under the Zeekr brand and new models from Lynk & Co and Galaxy [2] Group 2 - Zeekr's privatization was successfully completed by December 2025, with all revenue and profits being fully integrated into Geely, and Zeekr achieving profitability in Q4 2025 with a gross margin of approximately 23% [3] - Geely's global expansion is accelerating, with a target of 640,000 units in export sales for 2026, focusing on key overseas markets and increasing the number of overseas channels to over 2,200 [3] - The company is enhancing its AI capabilities, with plans for the mass production of the H9 model and the scaling of Robotaxi operations, aiming to create a comprehensive intelligent mobility ecosystem [3] Group 3 - The investment rating is maintained at "Buy," with a slight downward adjustment in net profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027, and a new forecast for 2028, alongside a target price adjustment to HK$25.70, reflecting a 13x PE for 2026 [4] - The positive outlook is supported by improvements in product structure and significant growth in export sales [4]