瑞银：维持恒安国际“买入”评级 升目标价至34.9港元

Group 1 - The company reported a 3.9% year-on-year revenue growth in the second half of 2025, reaching 11 billion RMB, with a net profit increase of 31% to 1.1 billion RMB, outperforming both the bank and market expectations [1] - Excluding foreign exchange gains and losses, the estimated net profit growth for the second half of the year is 21% year-on-year [1] - The company's tissue and hygiene products business saw a sales increase of 8% year-on-year in the second half, accelerating from 3% growth in the first half [1] Group 2 - The management indicated that the tissue business volume grew by approximately 5% in 2025, benefiting from an improved high-end product mix and a 1 percentage point increase in average price [1] - Although sales volume in hygiene products declined, this was offset by an increase in average price [1] - The overall gross margin improved by 4 percentage points year-on-year and 3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 35.5%, aided by lower raw material prices and increased sales of high-margin products [1] Group 3 - The management expects continued intense competition in the hygiene products industry in 2026, planning to shift towards mid-to-high-end products to avoid price wars [1] - While wood pulp prices are expected to stabilize, management is concerned about supply chain uncertainties and raw material price increase risks due to conflicts in the Middle East [1] - Expansion into international markets and new product categories is anticipated to be the two main growth engines for sales over the next five years [1] Group 4 - UBS maintained a "Buy" rating for the company, raising profit forecasts for 2026 to 2028 by 4% to 9% based on strong performance in the second half of last year and better-than-expected high-end product performance [2] - The target price was increased from 32.5 HKD to 34.9 HKD, based on discounted cash flow valuation, equivalent to a projected price-to-earnings ratio of 14 times for 2026 [2] - The current price corresponds to a projected price-to-earnings ratio of 11 times for 2026, with an expected dividend yield of 6% [2]