Goldman Sachs raises 2026 Brent crude average price forecast by $8 to $85 a barrel

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has raised its 2026 average price forecast for Brent crude oil to $85 per barrel from $77, and for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $79 per barrel from $72, due to expected disruptions in crude shipments and increased strategic stockpiling [1][2]. Price Forecast Adjustments - The bank anticipates Brent to average $110 per barrel in March and April, up from a previous forecast of $98, as traders are adding a risk premium amid uncertainties regarding supply disruptions [2]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that Brent and WTI prices will stabilize at $80 and $75 per barrel, respectively, through 2027, as the effects of supply and demand adjustments balance out with countries rebuilding their strategic oil reserves [5]. Risk Scenarios - In a scenario of prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, Brent prices could exceed the 2008 peak, and a sustained loss of 2 million barrels per day in Middle Eastern production could lead to significant price spikes [4]. - The bank suggests that if uncertainty peaks, prices could reach $135 per barrel if precautionary demand destruction offsets supply destruction over a six-month period [3]. Geopolitical Factors - On the geopolitical front, tensions are rising as Iran has threatened to strike the energy and water systems of its Gulf neighbors in response to U.S. military threats, which could further impact oil prices [6].