第一上海 | 【公司评论】友邦保险（1299，未评级）：新增17亿美元回购计划，VONB利润率新高

Core Insights - AIA Group's 2025 performance exceeded expectations with significant growth in key metrics, including VONB, OPAT, UFSG, and embedded value, all reaching historical highs. The company reported a robust rebound in Hong Kong and strong expansion in mainland China, with a clear three-pronged growth strategy involving ASEAN and India [1][17]. Financial Performance - New Business Value (VONB) for 2025 is projected at $5.516 billion, a 15% increase year-on-year, with a VONB margin of 58.5%, marking a 3.6 percentage point improvement [2][3]. - Operating Profit After Tax (OPAT) is expected to reach $7.136 billion, reflecting a 12% increase per share [2]. - Basic Free Surplus (UFSG) is anticipated to be $6.765 billion, an 11% year-on-year growth [2]. - Embedded Value (EV) is projected at $79.7 billion, a 14% increase per share [2]. Regional Performance - Hong Kong's VONB is expected to be approximately $2.3 billion, with a 28% year-on-year growth, contributing significantly to the group's overall performance [4][5]. - Mainland China's VONB is projected at around $1.2 billion, with a 14% growth rate, and a target of over 20% growth in early 2026 [6]. - The ASEAN region, including Thailand and Singapore, shows steady double-digit growth, with India’s Tata AIA reporting a remarkable 33% increase in VONB [7][8]. Distribution Channels - The agency channel remains a core competitive advantage, contributing 73% of the group's VONB, with significant improvements in productivity and recruitment [8]. - The bancassurance channel has seen a 2.4 times increase in VONB since 2022, with a notable improvement in profit margins [10]. Capital Management and Shareholder Returns - Total shareholder returns for 2025 are projected at $4.3 billion, a 13% increase, including a new $1.7 billion share buyback program [15]. - The company maintains a strong capital base with a shareholder capital ratio of 221%, well above regulatory requirements [14]. Growth Strategy and Future Outlook - Management is confident in achieving or exceeding the OPAT per share CAGR target of 9-11% from 2023 to 2026, with a mid-term goal of 40% CAGR for new regions in mainland China from 2025 to 2030 [17].