中国宏桥(1378.HK)：一体化布局业绩稳健 继续保持高分红

Core Viewpoint - The company demonstrates robust growth and financial health in its 2025 performance, maintaining a strong commitment to shareholder returns, and retains a "strong buy" investment rating [1]. Financial Performance - In 2025, the company's revenue reached 162.354 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.0%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 22.636 billion yuan, up 1.2% year-on-year, indicating stable core profitability. The gross margin was 25.56%, down 1.44 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in alumina prices. The debt-to-asset ratio improved to 42.25%, a decrease of 5.99 percentage points from the end of 2024, reflecting a more optimized and stable financial structure. The expense ratio was 5.24%, down 0.53 percentage points year-on-year, indicating effective internal operational management [1]. Business Segmentation - In the aluminum alloy segment, the gross margin improved, while the gross margins for alumina and aluminum processing segments declined. In 2025, aluminum alloy product sales were approximately 5.824 million tons, roughly flat year-on-year. The average selling price for aluminum alloy products increased by about 3.8% to approximately 18,216 yuan/ton (excluding VAT), with a gross margin of 28.5%, up 3.9 percentage points year-on-year. Alumina product sales were about 13.397 million tons, a year-on-year increase of approximately 22.7%. The average selling price for alumina products decreased by about 15.2% to approximately 2,899 yuan/ton (excluding VAT), with a gross margin of 22.2%, down 13.2 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to falling alumina prices. The sales volume of deep-processed aluminum products was approximately 716,000 tons, down from 766,000 tons last year. The average selling price increased by about 3.1% to approximately 20,874 yuan/ton (excluding VAT), with a gross margin of 19.2%, down 6.7 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to decreased capacity utilization and the cancellation of export tax rebates [2]. Shareholder Returns - The company maintains a high dividend policy, actively returning value to shareholders. The final dividend per share is 0.165 HKD, with a total cash dividend of 14.475 billion HKD in 2025, resulting in a payout ratio of 57.76% and a dividend yield of 5.06% [2]. Future Outlook - The company’s high dividend and yield characteristics remain unchanged, with positive developments in core business operations and multiple projects coming online. In 2025, the Yunnan Honghe project launched the world's first large-scale NEUI600+ super electrolytic cell production line, and the Yunnan Hongyan project commenced production of 250,000 tons of high-precision aluminum alloy ingots. The Ximangdu iron ore project is set to enhance the company's resource attributes and profitability. The company expects continued earnings growth, with projected EPS for 2026, 2027, and 2028 at 3.30, 3.39, and 3.51 yuan, respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 15.0, 14.6, and 14.1, while maintaining a "strong buy" investment rating [3].