小摩：降恒基地产目标价至35港元 公司目标今年盈利反弹

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley reports that based on Hang Lung Properties' (00012) historical tendency to maintain stable dividends rather than a fixed payout ratio since 2018, it expects the future dividends per share to remain unchanged over the next few years [3] - The bank anticipates that the company's stock price may come under pressure following a dividend cut, suggesting investors take advantage of lower prices, with a projected annual compound growth rate of 19% for earnings from 2025 to 2028 [3] - Hang Lung Properties is expected to see a 38% year-on-year decline in basic earnings for 2025, which the market is unlikely to find surprising, while a 30% reduction in dividends has somewhat alleviated uncertainties [3] Group 2 - Management indicated during the earnings call that the goal is to stabilize dividends by 2026, with earnings expected to rebound by 28% in 2026, and the profit margin from development properties in Hong Kong is projected to recover to mid-teens (approximately 13% to 17%) [3] - The bank believes that as long as the macroeconomic environment does not significantly deteriorate, the stated targets should be achievable [3]