大摩美团业绩点评：无惊吓无惊喜，核心博弈点依然在市场份额与利润率回升

Core Insights - Meituan's Q4 performance aligns with previous profit warnings, showing no unexpected surprises or additional downward pressure [1] - Morgan Stanley maintains an "Overweight" rating with a target price of HKD 120, emphasizing that market share trends and profit margin recovery remain key variables for stock price direction [1] Financial Overview - Total revenue for Q4 reached RMB 92.1 billion, a 4% year-on-year increase, with a 4% quarter-on-quarter decline, closely matching Morgan Stanley's forecast of RMB 92.2 billion and market expectations of RMB 92.3 billion [2] - Gross profit was RMB 24.1 billion, down 28% year-on-year, indicating significant pressure on gross margins [2] - Adjusted net loss was RMB 15.1 billion, with an adjusted net margin of -16.4%, slightly improving from -16.8% in the previous quarter but down 27.5 percentage points from a positive margin of 11.1% a year ago [2] - Operating loss was RMB 16.1 billion, narrowing by 19% quarter-on-quarter, and aligning closely with market expectations [2] Core Local Business - Revenue for the core local business segment was RMB 64.8 billion, a 1% year-on-year decline, slightly missing Morgan Stanley's and market expectations of approximately RMB 65.4 billion [3] - The segment reported an operating loss of approximately RMB 10 billion, transitioning from profit to loss, with an operating margin of -15.5%, down about 35 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The loss was better than Morgan Stanley's forecast of -RMB 11.1 billion and market expectations of -RMB 10.9 billion, aligning with prior profit warnings [3] - Quarter-on-quarter, the operating loss improved from RMB 14.1 billion to RMB 10 billion, with the operating margin improving by approximately 5.4 percentage points [3] New Business Segment - The new business segment generated revenue of RMB 27.3 billion, a 19% year-on-year increase, slightly exceeding Morgan Stanley's and market expectations of RMB 26.9 billion [4] - However, operating losses in this segment expanded significantly from RMB 1.3 billion in the previous quarter to RMB 4.7 billion, with a loss margin of -17.1% [4] - The increase in losses was primarily driven by investments in overseas operations, with the loss slightly worse than Morgan Stanley's forecast of -RMB 4.4 billion [4] Rating and Investment Thesis - Morgan Stanley maintains an "Overweight" rating for Meituan, with a target price of HKD 120, indicating approximately 38% upside potential from the current price of HKD 86.70 [6] - The valuation is based on a DCF model, assuming a 12% weighted average cost of capital and a 3% perpetual growth rate [6] - Key risks include potential recovery in the food delivery market share and profit margin improvements, as well as monetization of merchant ARPU and returns from new business investments [6] - The core local business's margin recovery and market share trends remain critical variables for Meituan's valuation re-evaluation [6]