Trump’s war in Iran is costing the U.S. economy 10,000 jobs a month, Goldman Sachs says

Core Insights - The U.S. military conflict with Iran is negatively impacting the American labor market, with Goldman Sachs estimating a loss of approximately 10,000 jobs per month due to rising oil prices, particularly affecting the leisure, hospitality, and retail sectors [1][5] Economic Impact - Goldman Sachs projects that Brent crude oil prices will average $105 in March, spike to $115 in April, and gradually decline to $80 by the fourth quarter, assuming disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz last for about six weeks [3] - In a more severe scenario, Brent prices could reach as high as $140 per barrel, or even $160 in a "severely adverse" situation [3] Sector Analysis - The leisure and hospitality industry is the most affected, losing around 5,000 jobs per month, while retail trade is expected to lose an additional 2,000 jobs [5] - The increase in energy prices leads consumers to reduce discretionary spending, impacting sectors like travel and dining first, while essential spending remains stable [5] Demographic Effects - Generation Z is particularly vulnerable, as they have the highest ratio of gasoline spending to discretionary spending among all generations, and many work in the sectors projected to experience the most job cuts [6] - A report from Bank of America indicates that rising gas prices, which have increased by approximately 26% year-over-year, could hinder the spending recovery of Gen Z, who had previously shown growth in spending [6]