光大环境(00257.HK)：归母净利/每股派息齐增 固废龙头经营拐点显现

Core Viewpoint - The company experienced a decline in revenue but achieved a significant increase in net profit due to a higher proportion of construction revenue and reduced impairments [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2025, the company reported an operating income of 27.521 billion HKD, a year-on-year decrease of 9.05%, primarily due to a reduction in new projects leading to lower construction revenue [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 3.925 billion HKD, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.23%, driven by an increase in the proportion of higher-margin construction revenue and a reduction in impairments [1]. - The gross margin for the reporting period was 40.28%, an increase of 2.15 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin improved to 17.1%, up by 4 percentage points [1]. Group 2: Segment Performance - The Environmental Energy segment generated revenue of 15 billion HKD, down 6% year-on-year, with operating income of 10.1 billion HKD (up 4%) and construction income of 1.3 billion HKD (down 49%) [1]. - The Environmental Water segment reported revenue of 5.4 billion HKD, a decline of 22%, with operating income of 3 billion HKD (up 5%) and construction income of 1.3 billion HKD (down 56%) [2]. - The Green Environmental segment achieved revenue of 6.7 billion HKD, down 4%, with operating income of 6.3 billion HKD (down 2%) and construction income of 0.1 billion HKD (down 59%) [2]. Group 3: Dividend Policy - The company has enhanced its dividend capability and willingness, with a proposed dividend of 0.27 HKD per share for 2025, increasing the payout ratio from 41.8% in 2024 to 42.3% [2]. - The absolute value of dividends rose from 1.41 billion HKD to 1.66 billion HKD, corresponding to a dividend yield of approximately 5.2% based on the closing price on March 23, 2026 [2]. Group 4: Investment Outlook - The company has raised its profit forecasts and target price, maintaining an "outperform" rating, citing the increasing proportion of higher-margin operating income and improved cash flow [3]. - Projected net profits for 2026-2028 are estimated at 4.127 billion HKD, 4.386 billion HKD, and 4.475 billion HKD, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.1%, 6.3%, and 2.0% respectively [3]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 7.7, 7.2, and 7.1 times for the years 2026-2028, with a fair valuation estimated between 5.75 and 6.03 HKD, indicating a premium of 11%-16% over the current stock price [3].