Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-03-30 02:25Core Viewpoint - China Biopharmaceutical (01177) maintains a "Buy" rating, but the target price is lowered by 7.4% from HKD 9.4 to HKD 8.7, reflecting a downward adjustment in non-BD revenue expectations [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth of 13.5%/7.1%/9.2% for the years 2026/2027/2028, with non-BD revenue growth projected at 10.5%/10.0%/9.2% [1] - Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow by 5.4%/8.3%/10.5% for the same years [1] Group 2: 2025 Financial Performance - In 2025, the company's revenue is projected to increase by 10.3% to RMB 31.83 billion, with innovative product revenue expected to rise by 26.2% to RMB 1.52 billion, accounting for 47.8% of total revenue (up from 37.8% in 2023) [1] - Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders is anticipated to grow by 31.4% to RMB 4.54 billion, and even excluding dividends from Sinovac Biotech, the adjusted net profit is expected to increase by 15% [1] Group 3: Comparison with Market Expectations - The company's 2025 revenue is projected to be 7.4% lower than the firm's expectations and 3.9% lower than consensus estimates, while the adjusted net profit is expected to be 27.5% and 9% lower than the firm's and consensus estimates, respectively [1] - The shortfall is primarily due to the milestone payment of USD 300 million from Merck not being included in the 2025 revenue expectations [1] Group 4: Future Outlook - With stable revenue from generic drugs and continued growth in innovative drug sales, the company is expected to see steady performance in 2026 [1]