Ge Long Hui·2026-03-30 05:28Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that due to the improvement in the global lithium supply-demand balance, the investment rating for Ganfeng Lithium has been upgraded from "Underperform" to "Outperform" with a target price raised from HKD 53 to HKD 85, marking the first positive outlook since the previous pessimistic view for 2023 to 2025 [1] - The report anticipates a global lithium supply shortage in 2026, primarily due to the early implementation of Zimbabwe's lithium mine export ban and the slower-than-expected recovery of CATL's lithium mica mines [1] - The earnings per share forecast for Ganfeng Lithium for 2026 to 2027 has been increased by 213% to 583%, reflecting the rise in lithium prices, and a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.3 times has been assigned, which is lower than the 20 times for Ganfeng's A-shares, to account for the lower liquidity of H-shares [1] Group 2 - The forecast for lithium prices in 2026 to 2027 is set at CNY 130,000 to CNY 145,000 per ton, which is conservative compared to the market's optimistic expectation of CNY 200,000, mainly due to concerns over increased production in Africa and China [1]