Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-03-31 03:23Core Viewpoint - CMB International has lowered the target price for China Tower (00788) from HKD 13.1 to HKD 12.1 while maintaining a "Hold" rating [1] Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2025, China Tower's revenue is expected to increase by 2.7% year-on-year to RMB 100.4 billion, aligning closely with CMB International's forecast of RMB 101.4 billion and the consensus estimate of RMB 100.87 billion [1] - Net profit is projected to rise by 8.4% year-on-year to RMB 11.6 billion, slightly exceeding CMB International's estimate by 1% but falling short of the consensus by 3.5% [1] - The net profit margin is expected to improve by 0.6 percentage points to 11.6%, primarily due to a decrease in depreciation and amortization (D&A) expense ratio, as the depreciation period for tower assets acquired in 2015 will end in November 2025, along with an extended lifespan for some DAS equipment [1] EBITDA and Operational Costs - EBITDA is anticipated to decline by 1.1% year-on-year to RMB 65.8 billion, with the EBITDA margin narrowing by 2.6 percentage points to 65.5% [1] - The decrease in EBITDA is attributed to an increase in bad debt provisions and a reduction in asset disposal gains, leading to a significant year-on-year rise of 23.5% in other operating expenses [1] Quarterly Performance - In the fourth quarter of 2025, revenue is expected to reach RMB 26.1 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.6%, indicating a typical seasonal recovery [1] Dividend Announcement - The company has announced a dividend of HKD 0.458 per share, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.8%, with a payout ratio of 77%, which is higher than the payout ratios from 2021 to 2024 [1]