国盛证券：维持申洲国际(02313)“买入”评级 短期改善趋势清晰 长期核心竞争力持续增强

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosheng Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Shenzhou International (02313), citing that the recent fundamentals are in line with expectations, with projected net profits for 2023-2025 at 4.57 billion, 5.53 billion, and 6.47 billion yuan, representing year-on-year changes of +0%, +21%, and +17% respectively [1] Orders - The company is experiencing a steady improvement in order demand, aligning with expectations [2] - The company’s shipments are estimated to have turned positive year-on-year in September, with robust growth since October, leading to a projected mid-single-digit revenue growth for H2 2023 [2] - Sales to major clients in H1 2023 were as follows: 3.47 billion to Nike, 2.54 billion to Uniqlo, 1.89 billion to Adidas, and 1.34 billion to Puma, with year-on-year changes of -22%, +5%, -26%, and -29% respectively, accounting for 30%, 22%, 16%, and 12% of total sales [2] - Orders from Uniqlo, Adidas, and Lululemon are expected to grow healthily in 2024, while Nike's orders are anticipated to remain stable, with domestic brand orders expected to perform relatively flat [2] Capacity - Short-term capacity utilization has improved, with domestic utilization around 90% and overseas capacity nearly saturated, which is expected to enhance gross margins in H2 2023 [3] - The company plans to increase hiring to restore domestic capacity utilization to normal levels in 2024, while continuing to advance its integrated and international supply chain strategy [3] - As of the end of 2022, the company employed over 94,000 people, producing over 200,000 tons of self-used knitted fabrics and approximately 500 million knitted garments, with ongoing efforts to enhance product variety [3] Financial Outlook - The company’s revenue for H1 2023 decreased by 15% to 11.57 billion yuan, with a 10% decline in performance to 2.13 billion yuan, primarily due to client destocking and adjustments in upstream orders [4] - For the full year of 2023, the company expects a gradual improvement in revenue performance in H2, estimating a mid-single-digit decline in revenue and flat performance in earnings [4] - With improving orders, the company anticipates a double-digit revenue growth in 2024, alongside a gradual recovery in capacity utilization that is expected to drive gross margin improvements and stable earnings growth [4]