Market Overview - Wall Street has continued its upward trend in 2024, with the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite up 3.7%, 9.2%, and 9.5% year-to-date, respectively [1] - The S&P 500 reached a new closing high on March 19, while the Dow had its best daily performance since February 22 [1] - The investment management industry has shown impressive growth, with a 45.2% return over the past year and a year-to-date return of 7.7% [1] Interest Rate Environment - Current interest rates are between 5.25% and 5.5%, the highest in over 22 years, which is expected to support margins in the near term [2] - The Federal Reserve has paused rate hikes and indicated fewer rate cuts than previously expected for 2024, with Chairman Jerome Powell suggesting at least four cuts of 25 basis points each [2] Economic Outlook - The probability of a soft landing has increased to 52% in March, up from 47% in January, while the likelihood of a recession in the next 12 months has decreased to 32% [3] - Client activities have remained strong, supporting growth in assets under management (AUM) [3] Asset Management Growth - A significant inflow of $1.4 trillion into U.S. money market funds has been attributed to high interest rates, with cash yielding around 5% [4] - Growth in AUM is expected to continue, positively impacting asset managers' revenues through higher performance and investment advisory fees [4] Company Highlights - SEI Investments Co. (SEIC) has an expected revenue growth rate of 6.7% and earnings growth rate of 15.6% for the current year, with a recent earnings estimate improvement of 0.8% [7] - Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc. (APAM) is projected to have a total AUM CAGR of 4.6% by 2025, with expected revenue and earnings growth rates of 3.7% and 10.5%, respectively [8] - KKR & Co. Inc. (KKR) anticipates revenue and earnings growth rates of 18% and 46.8%, respectively, for the current year, with a recent earnings estimate improvement of 2.4% [9] - T. Rowe Price Group Inc. (TROW) expects AUM and revenue growth of 2.5% and 4% in 2024, with revenue and earnings growth rates of 4.9% and 2.1%, respectively [10] - Affiliated Managers Group Inc. (AMG) projects total revenues and AUM to grow at CAGRs of 3.1% and 2.1% by 2026, with expected revenue and earnings growth rates of 4% and 10%, respectively [12]
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