港股业绩掘金：三大航合计亏损超百亿，航空板块为何“回血”难?

Core Viewpoint - The aviation sector is struggling to fully recover despite some positive operational data, with many airlines still in a state of loss and unable to achieve profitability [1][2][8]. Group 1: Passenger Flow and Demand - During the 2024 Qingming Festival, the total inter-regional passenger flow reached 750 million, with an average of 250 million per day, marking a 56.1% increase compared to the same period in 2023 and a 20.9% increase compared to 2019 [1]. - The aviation sector saw a passenger volume of 5.1 million during the holiday, which is a 24% increase year-on-year, but only a 2% increase compared to 2019, indicating weak demand relative to other transport modes [1][2]. Group 2: Financial Performance of Airlines - In 2023, only one out of six Hong Kong-listed airlines, Cathay Pacific, reported a profit of 9.067 billion, while the other five remained in loss, with China Eastern Airlines reporting a net loss of 8.168 billion [2][8]. - The overall loss for airlines in 2023 was approximately 17.1 billion, with a significant portion attributed to traditional off-peak seasons and rising oil prices [6][8]. Group 3: Operational Metrics - Domestic flight capacity has surpassed 2019 levels, with international flights recovering to over 60% by the end of 2023. Daily passenger flights averaged 13,514, a 6.5% decrease from 2019 [4]. - The passenger transport volume for domestic routes exceeded 380 million, showing a 1.5% increase compared to 2019, while international routes saw a significant decline of 58% [4][5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The Civil Aviation Administration of China aims for a passenger transport volume of 690 million in 2024, representing an 11% increase from 2023 and a 4.6% increase from 2019 [8]. - The 2024 Spring Festival saw record passenger numbers, with 83.45 million transported, a 51.1% increase from 2023 and a 14.5% increase from 2019, indicating a potential recovery trend [8]. - Analysts predict a positive outlook for airline performance in 2024, driven by the recovery of international flights, improved cost conditions, and a favorable demand environment [8].