中金：予太平洋航运(02343)“跑赢行业”评级 目标价升至3.15港元

Core Viewpoint - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) has upgraded Pacific Basin Shipping (02343) to an "outperform" rating, anticipating an upward cycle in the dry bulk shipping market, raising the 2025 profit forecast by 38% to $350 million, while maintaining the 2024 profit forecast unchanged, and increasing the target price by 10.5% to HKD 3.15 [1] Group 1: Company Performance - In Q1 2024, the company's core business for handy and super handy vessels achieved TCE rates of $11,050/day and $13,610/day, representing year-on-year declines of -18% and flat respectively, but exceeding market spot indices by $540/day and $1,300/day, benefiting from flexible operational strategies and a high proportion of scrubber-equipped vessels [2] - The company announced a share buyback plan starting from April 25, 2024, to December 31, 2024, with a maximum buyback fund of $40 million (approximately HKD 312 million), potentially covering up to 2.45% of the issued shares, reflecting management's confidence in operational capabilities and growth prospects [3] Group 2: Market Outlook - Supply growth remains constrained while demand is expected to gradually improve, indicating a potential upward cycle in the dry bulk market, supported by reduced effective capacity due to restrictions in the Red Sea and Panama Canal, alongside a 25.6% year-on-year increase in the Baltic Supramax Index (BSI) and a 22.7% increase in the Baltic Handysize Index (BHSI) [3][4] - As of April 2024, the order book for handy and super handy vessels accounts for 10.2% and 9.2% of capacity respectively, while vessels over 25 years old represent 4.4% and 9.0% of capacity, with Clarkson's projecting a supply increase of 4.4% and 3.3% for handy vessels in 2024 and 2025, respectively, and a corresponding demand increase of 4.0% and 3.3% for minor bulk transportation [4] Group 3: Fleet Optimization - The company continues to optimize its fleet structure, having sold a 20-year-old handy vessel in Q1 2024 and signed long-term lease agreements for 11 newbuild vessels (8 of which are pending delivery), which are expected to enhance profitability by over 20% compared to the current core handy and super handy fleet [4]