Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2024-04-12 02:37Core Viewpoint - The stock of China Merchants Energy Shipping Company (01138) has increased by over 4%, reaching HKD 8.92, with a trading volume of HKD 45.5289 million, driven by strong VLCC-TCE rates in Q1 2023 [1] Group 1: VLCC-TCE Performance - In Q1 2023, the VLCC-TCE recorded USD 44,648 per day, representing a nearly 200% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 30% increase year-on-year [1] - On February 16, 2023, VLCC-TCE surged to USD 65,537 per day, marking the highest level since the second half of 2023 [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - According to Haitong Futures, the freight rates for VLCCs are expected to face a potential adjustment in Q2 due to Saudi Arabia's voluntary oil production cuts extended until the end of June 2023, alongside concentrated refinery maintenance in Asia and Europe, which may constrain procurement demand [1] - Guosen Securities forecasts that only one VLCC will be available for delivery globally in 2024, with supply constraints due to aging vessels, stricter environmental regulations, and increasing administrative sanctions [1] - The demand side anticipates that the expected interest rate cuts in the U.S. starting in 2024 may boost global economic momentum, leading to an increase in global crude oil demand [1] - It is projected that the global oil transportation supply-demand gap will be 4.1% in 2024, indicating a continued upward trend in freight rate levels [1]