A 3x Expected Rise In Mounjaro Sales Is Likely To Drive Eli Lilly's Q1

Core Viewpoint - Eli Lilly is expected to report strong Q1 results driven by its diabetes and weight-loss drugs, with projected sales of $8.9 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $2.46, reflecting significant growth from previous periods [1][5]. Stock Performance - Eli Lilly's stock has increased by 330% from $170 in January 2021 to around $730, significantly outperforming the S&P 500, which rose about 35% during the same period [2]. - The stock delivered returns of 64% in 2021, 32% in 2022, and 59% in 2023, while the S&P 500 had returns of 27% in 2021, -19% in 2022, and 24% in 2023 [2]. Revenue and Earnings Growth - In the previous quarter, Eli Lilly reported revenue of $9.4 billion, a 28% year-over-year increase, driven by market share gains for drugs like Mounjaro, Verzenio, and Jardiance [4]. - Mounjaro sales surged 8x to $2.2 billion, while Verzenio sales increased by 42% year-over-year to $1.1 billion [4]. - Adjusted earnings grew by 19% to $2.49 per share, despite a charge of $0.62 per share related to acquired in-process research and development [4]. Future Projections - For the latest quarter, Mounjaro sales are expected to rise over 3x year-over-year to around $2 billion, with Verzenio sales projected to exceed $1 billion [5]. - Eli Lilly anticipates 2024 sales between $40.4 billion and $41.6 billion, with adjusted earnings per share ranging from $12.20 to $12.70, marking a significant increase from 2023's sales of $34.1 billion and adjusted EPS of $6.32 [5]. Market Position and Valuation - Eli Lilly's valuation is heavily reliant on future pipeline potential rather than current earnings, with analysts' average price estimates at $825, over 10% above the current market price of around $730 [3].