LI AUTO-How Do Li Auto (LI) & XPeng (XPEV) Stack Up Post Q1 Earnings?

Core Insights - XPeng's first-quarter 2024 results showed significant improvement, leading to a 6% increase in stock price, while Li Auto's stock declined due to profit decreases and model delays [1][2][9] - XPeng aims for a Level 4 autonomous driving experience by 2025 and plans to launch a mass-market EV priced under 200,000 yuan ( $27,630) [1] - Li Auto faced challenges with insufficient fast-charging infrastructure, leading to the postponement of three electric SUV models to next year [2] Q1 Key Metrics - Deliveries: XPeng sold 21,821 vehicles (up 20%), while Li Auto's deliveries increased 53% to 80,400 units [3] - Revenues: XPeng's revenues reached$ 906.9 million (up 62.3% YoY), with vehicle sales at $767.9 million (up 58% YoY). Li Auto's revenues rose 36.4% to$ 3.6 billion, with vehicle sales at $3.4 billion (up 32.3% YoY) [3] - Vehicle Margin: XPeng's vehicle margin improved to 5.5% from negative 2.5% YoY, while Li Auto's margin decreased to 19.3% from 19.8% YoY [3] Operating Expenses and Earnings - Operating Expenses: XPeng's R&D and SG&A costs rose 4.2% and 0.1% YoY, while Li Auto's R&D and SG&A costs surged 64.6% and 81% YoY, respectively [4] - Earnings: Li Auto's net income fell 37% YoY to approximately$ 82 million, while XPeng's net loss narrowed by 41.4% YoY to $190 million [4] Q2 Outlook - XPeng expects deliveries between 29,000-32,000 units (up 25-37.9% YoY) and revenues of RMB 7.5-8.3 billion (up 48.1-63.9% YoY) [5] - Li Auto projects second-quarter deliveries of 105,000-110,000 units (up 21.3-27.1% YoY) and revenues of RMB 29.9-31.4 billion (up 4.2-9.4% YoY) [5] Financials - As of March 31, XPeng had cash/cash equivalents of$ 2 billion and long-term borrowings of $752.5 million. Li Auto's cash and cash equivalents were 11.8 billion with long-term borrowings of$ 249 million [6] - Li Auto's long-term debt-to-capitalization stands at 12.6%, lower than XPeng's 23% [6] EPS & Sales Estimates - Li Auto's 2024 sales estimate implies 32% YoY growth, with EPS projected at $1.50 (down 6.9% YoY). XPeng's consensus estimate suggests a loss of$ 1.25 per share, improving from a loss of $1.68 in 2023, with sales expected to increase by 63% [7] Stock Performance & Valuation - Year-to-date, XPeng and Li Auto shares have decreased by 40% and 44%, respectively, compared to the industry's growth of 3.8% [8] - Li Auto trades at a forward sales multiple of 0.86, below its five-year median of 2.59 but above the industry's 0.68. XPeng's forward sales multiple is 0.93 [8] Conclusion - XPeng's advancements in autonomous driving and positive second-quarter outlook position it favorably, while Li Auto's delays and financial challenges have affected investor confidence despite strong delivery growth [9]