TRINA(688599) 海通国际·2024-06-17 01:00Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Trina Solar (688599 CH) [4][11] Core Views - Trina Solar's diversified business structure drives growth, with upcoming US component production capacity expected to contribute significantly [2] - The company faces profitability pressure due to declining component prices, but maintains strong shipment growth across multiple business segments [3][8][9] - Trina Solar continues to expand TOPCon capacity and invest heavily in R&D, maintaining technological leadership in the industry [10] Financial Performance - In 2023, Trina Solar achieved operating revenue of CNY 113.392 billion, a 33% YoY growth, with net profit attributable to shareholders reaching CNY 5.531 billion, a 50% YoY increase [3][7] - Q1 2024 saw a 14% YoY decrease in operating revenue to CNY 18.256 billion, with net profit attributable to shareholders dropping 71% YoY to CNY 0.516 billion [3][7] - The company's gross profit margin increased by 3.7 percentage points YoY to 15.54% in 2023, but declined to 14.84% in Q1 2024 due to component price pressures [3][8] Business Segments - Component shipments reached 65.2GW in 2023, a 51% YoY growth, with exports accounting for 54.5GW [3][8] - Distributed generation shipments grew 55% YoY to 9.6GW in 2023, with stable profitability per watt [9] - Mounting business shipments surged 118.2% YoY to 9.6GW in 2023, with expected growth of over 50% in 2024 [9] - Energy storage shipments reached 2GWh in 2023, with expectations to double to 5GW in 2024 [9] Capacity and Technology - By end of 2023, Trina Solar's silicon wafer/cell/component production capacity reached 55/75/95GW, with TOPCon cell capacity exceeding 40GW [10] - The company expects to expand capacity to 60/105/120GW by end of 2024 [10] - R&D expenses reached CNY 5.53 billion in 2023, a 19.7% YoY increase, with N-type i-TOPCon component laboratory power output reaching 740W [10] - The company has 6.5GW integrated capacity in Southeast Asia and is building 5GW component capacity in the US, expected to start production in October 2024 [10] Market Performance - The US market performed exceptionally well, with revenue reaching CNY 10.834 billion in 2023, a 99% YoY growth, and gross profit margin increasing by 18.2 percentage points to 34.24% [3][8] Valuation and Forecast - The report projects 2024-2026 net profit attributable to shareholders at CNY 4.281 billion (-50%), CNY 5.873 billion (-43%), and CNY 7.075 billion respectively [11] - The target price is adjusted downward by 33% to CNY 29.40, with a 2024 PE ratio of 15x [11]