Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the utility and power industry, focusing on the opportunities in the new energy absorption sector [1] Core Viewpoints - The rapid growth of new energy and lagging grid construction have increased the pressure on new energy absorption, especially in the northern regions where new energy penetration is high but electricity consumption is low [1][7] - Key solutions to improve local electricity demand include green hydrogen production and electrification, with green hydrogen being highly sensitive to electricity prices and having significant potential for cost reduction [1][7] - Grid-side solutions involve flexible DC transmission to enhance new energy delivery efficiency and strengthening distribution network construction to address distributed energy absorption issues [1][7] - Flexibility resources such as energy storage, solar thermal, and flexibility retrofitting are critical for improving the power system's ability to absorb new energy [1][7] Detailed Summary by Sections New Energy Growth and Grid Construction Lag - In 2023, China added 75.9GW of wind power and 216.9GW of solar power, bringing the total new energy capacity to 1.05 billion kW, accounting for 36% of the total installed capacity [7] - The northern regions, particularly the "Three North" areas, have high new energy penetration but low electricity consumption, exacerbating the absorption pressure [7][9] - Grid construction has lagged behind power generation development, with the source-grid coordination index rising to 1.39 in 2023, indicating a significant mismatch [7][13] Increasing Local Electricity Demand - Green hydrogen production is a key method to increase local electricity demand, with green hydrogen accounting for only 1% of total hydrogen production but having vast application potential [1][7] - Electrode boilers, which can provide both heating electrification and flexibility retrofitting, are expected to see increased market space due to their dual functionality [1][7] Grid-Side Solutions - Flexible DC transmission is expected to improve new energy delivery efficiency, with four UHVDC projects approved in 2023, marking a significant acceleration in construction [1][7] - Distribution network construction needs to be strengthened to accommodate distributed energy sources, with many regions facing limitations in distributed photovoltaic access [1][7] Flexibility Resources - Energy storage, solar thermal, and flexibility retrofitting are key directions for enhancing the power system's flexibility [1][7] - Pumped storage, with over 130GW approved in 2022 and 2023, is expected to contribute significantly to the market, with major players like Dongfang Electric and Harbin Electric benefiting [1][7] - Flexibility retrofitting of coal-fired power plants is also a major focus, with the potential to contribute over 100 billion RMB in market space by 2027 [1][7] Investment Analysis - The report recommends focusing on green hydrogen, electrification, main grid equipment, distribution network construction, and flexibility resources [1][7] - Key companies to watch include Huaguang Electric, Dongfang Electric, Xuji Electric, and others in the green hydrogen, electrification, and flexibility resource sectors [1][7]
新能源消纳系列报告之一：新能源高速增长加大消纳压力 关注消纳产业链机会
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan·2024-06-17 03:01