房地产2024年中期策略报告：老龄化背景下，日本地产龙头大和房屋为何依旧表现抢眼

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the real estate industry [1] Core Viewpoints - Japan's real estate market has rebalanced supply and demand since 2000, leading to a resurgence in market activity, with Tokyo area housing prices hitting record highs in 2023 [2] - The Bank of Japan entered a rate hike cycle in 2024 to curb excessive housing price increases [2] - Diversified real estate companies significantly outperformed the market, with Daiwa House becoming a 10-bagger stock over a 10-year period [4] - Daiwa House successfully transformed its business model and maintained industry leadership despite challenges such as long-term debt risks, deep aging population, and economic downturns [6][13] Industry Performance - From 1991 to 2022, Japan's diversified real estate, real estate development, and real estate operation sectors grew by 218.35%, 49.13%, and 19.60% respectively [4] - During the period of Japan's bubble economy collapse (2000-2010), the Nikkei 225 index fell by over 47%, while sectors like steel (109%), real estate (85%), and shipping (109%) performed exceptionally well [2] Company Analysis (Daiwa House) - Daiwa House cleared historical financial burdens through measures such as accelerated fixed asset depreciation, one-time amortization of retirement benefit reserves, inventory impairment losses, and investment securities impairment losses [10] - The company built a full-cycle value chain in the real estate business, integrating stock businesses like leasing management and REITs with flow businesses like construction, creating a closed-loop value chain from land proposal to capital exit [13] - Daiwa House's asset turnover rate and financial performance showed significant improvement from 2000 to 2021 [9][11] Investment Recommendations - A-shares to focus on: Vanke A, Poly Development, China Merchants Shekou, Huafa, C&D, Seazen Holdings, Urban Construction Development, Tianjian Group, Zhangjiang Hi-Tech, Shouqi [17] - H-shares to focus on: China Overseas Land & Investment, China Resources Land, Longfor Group, Yuexiu Property, Wanwu Cloud, China Resources Mixc Living, China Overseas Property, Poly Property, Yuexiu Services [17]