国泰海通晨报 2025 年 04 月 07 日 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 [Table_Summary] 1、宏观：对主要对美顺差国加征幅度超预期； [周津宇 Table_Authors] 电话：021-38676666 登记编号：S0880516080007 [Table_ImportantInfo] 今日重点推荐 行业双周报：《关税背景下关注农业自主可控度高》2025-04- 05 王艳君（分析师）021-38676666、林逸丹（分析师）021-38676666 种业：中国关税反制，自美农产品进口有望进一步降低，自主可控势在必行。 国务院关税税则委员会公告自 2025 年 4 月 10 日 12 时 01 分起，我国对原产于美国的所有进 口商品加征 34%关税。美国是中国的第二大粮食进口来源地，2024 年中国自美国进口农产品的规模为 249 亿美元。据海关统计，2024 年中国自美国进口粮食总量 3179.33 万吨。其中大豆 2213.4 万吨、高 粱 568.3 万吨、玉米 207.4 万吨和小麦 190.23 万吨。我们认为，中国自美国进口农产品有望进一步降 低，推动国内粮价景气度提升， ...

低利率环境下，资负匹配定保险股价值 [Table_Industry] 保险 ——上市险企 2024 年年报综述 | | | | [table_Authors] 刘欣琦(分析师) | 李嘉木(分析师) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | [Table_subIndustry] 细分行业评级 | | 登记编号 S0880515050001 | S0880524030003 | | 本报告导读： 2024 年上市险企价值率推动 NBV 景气增长，投资收益提振推动利润大幅提升；长 端利率下行对 CSM 及净资产造成冲击，预计资负联动更为重要，维持"增持"。 投资要点： 股 票 研 究 行 业 专 题 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.04.06 [Table_Summary] 投资建议：负债端看，预定利率调整、分红险占比提升以及全渠道 报行合一的实施将推动行业负债成本的下移，预计 2025 年上市公司 NBV 回归平稳增长；投资端看，由于近年刚性负债成本的抬升，预 ...

经营阶段性承压，探索海外市场布局 茶百道(2555) ——茶百道 2024 年报业绩点评 | ——茶百道 2024 | 年报业绩点评 | | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [table_Authors] 刘越男(分析师) | | 宋小寒(分析师) | | | | | | | [当前价格 Table_CurPrice] (港元)： | 9.02 | | 021-38676666 | | 021-38676666 | | | | 登记编号S0880516030003 | | S0880524080011 | [Table_Market] 交易数据 | | 本报告导读： 公司通过强化产品研发能力、供应链能力、运营管理能力、品牌影响力及数字化能 力等，有望提高竞争力。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万人民币） | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收 ...

批零贸易业[Table_Industry] /可选消费品 | | | ——孩子王 年报点评 2024 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [table_Authors] 刘越男(分析师) | 陈笑(分析师) | | [Table_Target] 目标价格： | 19.14 | | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | | | | | 登记编号S0880516030003 | S0880518020002 | | | | 本报告导读： 公司执三扩战略，加速推进加盟、直播、AI 等新业务布局，看好长期发展。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 8,753 | 9,337 | 10,381 | 11,517 | 12,654 | | (+/-)% | 2.7% | 6.7% | 11.2% | 10. ...

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/房地产/房地产 证券研究报告 中海物业（2669）公司年报点评 2025 年 04 月 02 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 股票数据 | 0[4Ta月b0le2_日S收to盘ck价I（nf港o]元） | 5.37 | | --- | --- | | 52 周股价波动（港元） | 3.77-7.19 | | 总股本（百万股） | 3284 | | 总市值（亿港元） | 176 | 2024.09.02 《业务发展稳中向好，业态拓展量增质升》 2024.04.02 Tel:(021)23183953 Email:czy15598@haitong.com 投资评级 优于大市 维持 物管服务稳健增长，盈利能力修复向上 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 主要财务数据及预测 市场表现 [Table_QuoteInfo] 恒生指数对比 1M 2M 3M | 绝对涨幅（%） | 1.7 | 11.1 | 4.3 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 相对涨幅（%） | -1.4 | 19.2 | 18.6 | 资料来源：海通证券研究所 分 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [6] Core Views - The report highlights a recovery in core business in the second half of 2024, alongside the rise of AI-related products and services [6][9] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 16.95 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.62%, with full-stack AI products contributing 957 million yuan, accounting for 5.65% of total revenue [9] - The report emphasizes a multi-dimensional improvement in gross margin and effective cost control measures [9] Financial Data and Forecasts - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 17.23 billion yuan - 2024: 16.95 billion yuan (YoY -1.6%) - 2025E: 18.65 billion yuan (YoY +10.0%) - 2026E: 20.88 billion yuan (YoY +12.0%) - 2027E: 24.02 billion yuan (YoY +15.0%) [8][10] - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 713.39 million yuan - 2024: 512.93 million yuan (YoY -28.1%) - 2025E: 707.65 million yuan (YoY +38.0%) - 2026E: 883.31 million yuan (YoY +24.8%) - 2027E: 1.12 billion yuan (YoY +26.5%) [8][10] Business Segmentation - The revenue breakdown by business segment for 2024 is: - Technical Professional Services (TPG): 14.77 billion yuan (YoY -1.7%) - Internet Information Technology Services (IIG): 2.18 billion yuan (YoY +4%) [9][10] - The top five customers account for 57.4% of service revenue, while the top ten customers account for 65.1% [9] Profitability and Cost Management - The company aims to improve gross margin through: - Increasing the proportion of high-margin services - Transitioning to productized software and hardware offerings - Integrating AI tools into delivery processes [9] - The gross profit for 2024 is projected at 3.74 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 22.1% [9] Valuation and Investment Recommendation - The report suggests a dynamic PE of 23-27 times for 2025, with a 6-month fair value range of 6.43-7.55 HKD [9] - The company is expected to maintain a competitive edge in the AI sector, particularly through its partnerships and product offerings [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Insights - The company has achieved over 100% growth in its generative AI business, which has become its largest revenue source, accounting for 63.7% of total revenue in 2024 [6][8] - The company completed a restructuring of its "1+X" organizational framework, focusing resources on core businesses, particularly generative AI and visual AI [6] - The company is set to release its new model, "Riri Xin 6.0," in Q2 2025, which is expected to significantly enhance multimodal understanding and interaction capabilities [6] - The company maintains a leading position in the visual AI market, with a customer repurchase rate increase of 31 percentage points in 2024 [8] - The company has made significant advancements in its autonomous driving business, with over 1.1 million new designated vehicles added in 2024 [8] Financial Data and Forecast - Revenue is projected to grow from 34.06 billion CNY in 2023 to 73.97 billion CNY by 2027, with a year-on-year growth rate of 27% in 2027 [6][9] - The net profit is expected to improve from a loss of 6.44 billion CNY in 2023 to a profit of 305 million CNY by 2027, reflecting a significant turnaround [6][9] - The gross margin is forecasted to increase from 44.07% in 2023 to 57.82% in 2027 [6][9] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to turn positive by 2026, reaching 1.33% in 2027 [6][9] Market Performance - The company's stock closed at 1.47 HKD on April 1, 2025, with a market capitalization of 54.401 billion HKD [2] - The stock has experienced a 52-week price range of 0.58 to 2.35 HKD [2] Valuation - The company is assigned a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 16-20 times for 2025, indicating a fair value range of 2.15 to 2.69 HKD per share [6][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][18]. Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 142.99 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, while the core net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.27 billion yuan, down 1.6% year-on-year [7]. - The property development business contributed 138.62 billion yuan to revenue, accounting for approximately 97% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 13.3% and a net profit margin of 3.4% in 2024 [7]. - The company maintained a high dividend payout ratio of over 50%, proposing a final dividend of 1.2 HKD per share, resulting in a dividend yield of 7.4% based on the closing price on March 26, 2025 [7][18]. - The company ranked 7th in the sales performance among the top 100 real estate companies in 2024, with a total contract signing amount of 133.5 billion yuan [7]. - The company has a strong liquidity position with cash on hand amounting to 57.26 billion yuan and a net debt-to-equity ratio of approximately 31.78% [7]. Financial Data and Forecast - Total revenue is projected to grow from 134.43 billion yuan in 2023 to 142.99 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.4% [6]. - The net profit is expected to decrease slightly from 4.34 billion yuan in 2023 to 4.27 billion yuan in 2024, with a forecasted recovery to 4.72 billion yuan in 2025 [6]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 11.1% in 2023 to 13.27% in 2024, while the return on equity (ROE) is projected to decline from 13.0% to 11.36% [6][7]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 2.34 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 8-10 times, leading to a reasonable market capitalization range of 41.2-51.5 billion HKD [18]. Market Performance - The company's stock closed at 16.42 HKD on April 1, with a 52-week price range of 10.06-19.58 HKD [2]. - The company’s absolute performance over the last month was a gain of 2.53%, while it underperformed the Hang Seng Index over the last two and three months [4].

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/旅游服务业/酒店、餐馆 证券研究报告 达势股份（1405）公司年报点评 2025 年 04 月 02 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 股票数据 | 0[4Table_StockInfo 月 01 日收盘价（港币] ） 99.55 | | --- | | 52 周股价波动（港币） 49.05-125.20 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（亿股） 1.31/1.31 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿港币） 130/130 | | 相关研究 | | [Table_ReportInfo] 《门店销售表现亮眼，盈利能力持续增强》 | 2024.09.01 《新增长市场表现强劲，首次实现年度盈利》 2024.04.07 市场表现 [Table_QuoteInfo] 恒生指数对比 1M 2M 3M 绝对涨幅（%） 0.20 25.54 31.59 | 绝对涨幅（%） | 0.20 | 25.54 | 31.59 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 相对涨幅（%） | -0.96 | 10.79 | 13.33 | | 资料来源 ...

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/房地产/房地产 证券研究报告 新城控股（601155）公司年报点评 2025 年 04 月 02 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 股票数据 | 04[Table_StockInfo 月 02日收盘价（元）] 12.36 | | --- | | 52 周股价波动（元） 7.95-16.70 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万股） 2256/2256 | | 总市值/流通市值（百万元） 27879/27879 | | 相关研究 | | [Table_ReportInfo] 《商业收入保持稳定，出租率持续提升》 | | 2024.11.18 | | 《毛利率转升，租金收入贡献稳定现金流》 | | 2024.09.05 | | 《减值计提影响利润，租金收入再提升》 | | 2024.05.29 | | 市场表现 | | [Table_QuoteInfo] 新城控股 | | 海通综指 | -14.01% 4.99% 23.99% 42.99% 61.99% 2024/4 2024/7 2024/10 2025/1 沪深 300 对比 1M ...