[Table_Summary] 重点推荐： 国泰海通晨报 2025 年 05 月 23 日 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 1、金工团队认为，通过涨跌停个股数量和可交易收益有关的因子，成功构建能够预测市场短期 情绪变化的择时模型。 [汤蔚翔 Table_Authors] 电话：021-38676666 登记编号：S0880511010007 [Table_ImportantInfo] 今日重点推荐 金融工程专题报告：《从涨停板、"打板策略"到赚钱效应引 发的情绪择时指标》2025-05-22 郑雅斌（分析师）021-38676666、曹君豪（分析师）021-38676666、余浩淼（分析师）021-38676666 涨停板、"打板策略"、赚钱效应的背后情绪 通过构建与涨跌停个股数量和可交易收益有关的因子，我们成功构建了能够预测市场短期情绪变 化的择时模型。对模型进行改进后，回测区间内无论是收益还是风控能力均较为出色。 情绪择时模型的构建 情绪择时模型组合的年化收益率为 6.65%（3.82%），年化波动率为 15.37%（22.40%），最大回撤 29.39%（55.08%）。将模型运用在沪深 300 等宽 ...

国泰海通晨报 2025 年 05 月 22 日 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 [Table_Summary] 金工团队认为，从交易结构的视角分析黄金的价格节奏。 煤炭团队认为， 5 月底前将迎来向上的拐点，叠加 6 月迎峰度夏，我们预计当前的价格加速是 旺季前的最后一跌。 轻工团队认为，日本市场产品上新如期推进，市场表现值得期待。 美妆团队认为，锦波生物积极把握充足胶原蛋白医美蓝海红利，近期发布 HiveCOL"蜂巢"胶原 组织网新技术，彰显龙头研发优势，看好 25 年凝胶新品类接力，多品相协同加速渗透。 [汤蔚翔 Table_Authors] 电话：021-38676666 登记编号：S0880511010007 [Table_ImportantInfo] 今日重点推荐 金融工程专题报告：《黄金回调后应如何把握交易节奏》 2025-05-02 郑雅斌（分析师）021-38676666、张晗（分析师）021-38676666、梁誉耀（分析师）021-38676666 从微观供需层面看，各国央行购金成为驱动金价上涨的重要动力，2024 年各经济体央行购 金约 1044 吨。随着金价的快速爬升，投资需求逐渐接 ...

国泰海通晨报 2025 年 05 月 20 日 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 [Table_Summary] 重点推荐： 1、固收，固收团队认为，中美第一阶段关税摩擦缓和，形成有利的做多窗口，建议围绕"科技成 长+消费复苏"双主线布局。关税博弈下自主可控和内需发力仍然是确定性较强的主线，由于权 益市场风险偏好有望回升，人形机器人、AI、低空经济等主题投资机会有望回归。 2、机械，时代电气，机械团队认为，公司为轨交牵引变流系统龙头，通过"同心多元化"战略扩 展新兴装备打开第二增 长曲线。我们看好公司两大业务保持良好发展，首次覆盖给予"增持" [汤蔚翔 Table_Authors] 电话：021-38676666 登记编号：S0880511010007 [Table_ImportantInfo] 事件点评：《轮动加速，主线掘金》2025-05-19 顾一格（分析师）021-38676666 从关税摩擦缓和预期到第一阶段协议落地，关税摩擦对权益市场的冲击基本修复。4 月 3 日以来，权益市场上演了"关税冲击-缓和预期交易-协议落地后轮动加速"的行情。4 月初中美关税 摩擦升级，投资者避险情绪升温，权益市场和转债 ...

国泰海通晨报 2025 年 05 月 16 日 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 [Table_Summary] 重点推荐： 1、宏观，宏观团队认为，2025 年 4 月的金融数据，一方面体现了政策端继续发力稳增长，包括 政府债加快发行、加快使用；另一方面，仍指向内需，尤其是居民部门需求修复速度还有待提振。 国内政策仍将逐步渐进发力。 2、零售，零售团队认为，中美贸易谈判取得实质性进展，出海链受益，部分对美敞口高的公司 望迎估值修复；继续看好品牌势能崛起方向及业绩望边际改善的公司。 3、机械，机械团队认为，杭汽轮自研重型燃气轮机点火成功代表中国自主燃机再下一城，有望 加速中国燃机产业链全面国产化进程；同时，数据中心建设等需求带来全球燃机市场确定性上行。 整机市场与核心部件环节值得关注。 [周津宇 Table_Authors] 电话：021-38676666 登记编号：S0880516080007 [Table_ImportantInfo] 今日重点推荐 宏观专题：《政府加杠杆，缓解企业压力》2025-05-15 应镓娴（分析师）021-38676666、贺媛（分析师）021-38676666、梁中华（分析师） ...

Macro Overview - Consumption and infrastructure show resilience, while real estate, exports, and production face pressure. Strong performance in automotive consumption and accelerated infrastructure investment, but real estate remains under pressure and port operations for imports and exports are slowing down [1][2] - Weekly high-frequency data indicates that automotive consumption is particularly strong, while service consumption fluctuates due to holiday effects, but overall shows a marginal improvement trend. Infrastructure special bond issuance is accelerating, but the real estate market continues to be under pressure [2] Overseas Technology - Google released Gemini 2.5 Pro (I/O version), which aids front-end development and complex programming. This model is optimized for daily programming tasks and supports the creation of interactive web applications with a single prompt, significantly lowering the entry barrier for design-oriented developers [4] - The Trump administration plans to revoke the AI export restrictions established during the Biden era, which has faced strong opposition from major tech companies and foreign governments. This change is expected to enhance innovation capabilities in the U.S. AI sector [5] - Apple is considering a major overhaul of its Safari browser to incorporate AI-driven search functionalities, which may end its long-standing partnership with Google [6] Medical Devices - The domestic medical device market is expected to face pressure in 2024 due to centralized procurement and bidding rhythms, but the trend of international expansion remains positive, with an improvement in internationalization levels. Domestic demand is expected to gradually improve by 2025, leading to a sustained recovery in performance [1][7] - The medical device sector's revenue growth is projected to be 1% in 2024 Q1, 0% in Q2, -4% in Q3, 1% in Q4, and -5% in 2025 Q1. However, with the implementation of medical device update projects since December 2024, monthly bidding data is showing a continuous improvement trend [8] - The overall performance of medical consumables remains stable, with some high-value consumable companies experiencing a decline in domestic growth due to industry restructuring and price adjustments. However, the demand for essential medical consumables continues to grow, and leading companies are expected to achieve steady growth [9] IVD (In Vitro Diagnostics) - The domestic IVD market is under short-term pressure in terms of volume and price, with revenue growth projected at -11% in 2024 Q1, 0% in Q2, 3% in Q3, -10% in Q4, and -15% in 2025 Q1. The domestic market is facing challenges due to compliance upgrades and price adjustments, while overseas markets are becoming important growth points [10][11] Automotive Industry - The automotive industry maintains an "overweight" rating, with recommendations for companies involved in autonomous driving and those benefiting from the replacement of old vehicles. Companies like XPeng Motors, Ideal Auto, and Weichai Power are highlighted as beneficiaries of these trends [30][33] - The retail sales of passenger vehicles in April reached 1.791 million units, a year-on-year increase of 17%, while the cumulative retail sales for the year reached 6.918 million units, up 9% year-on-year. The new energy vehicle market also shows strong growth, with retail sales of 922,000 units in April, a 37% increase year-on-year [32]

Macro Analysis - The monetary policy continues to emphasize "moderately loose monetary policy" and balancing short-term and long-term goals, as well as stabilizing growth while preventing risks [1][2][24] - The People's Bank of China has indicated a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy, with a package of financial policies expected to be implemented quickly [2][24] - The report highlights the importance of balancing support for the real economy with maintaining the health of the banking system and reducing bank liability costs [1][2] Strategy Insights - The report suggests that the continuity of Chinese policies will stabilize risk outlooks, maintaining a bullish view on Chinese A/H shares [3][4] - The recent adjustments in the stock market are seen as a significant turning point, indicating a reduction in investor concerns regarding US-China competition [4] - The report maintains an optimistic outlook for the Chinese stock market, emphasizing the importance of internal factors over external uncertainties [4] Industry Comparisons - Emerging technology is identified as a key focus, with financial cycles being a potential dark horse [6] - Recommendations include sectors such as brokerage, insurance, and banks, as well as high-dividend state-owned enterprises [6] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic consumption and fixed asset investment, particularly in cyclical sectors [6] Robotics Industry - The report discusses advancements in robotics, particularly in tactile sensing technology for industrial robotic arms [11][12] - Strong Brain Technology's non-invasive smart bionic hand is highlighted for its ability to assist disabled individuals, showcasing significant technological innovation [12][14] - Amazon's Vulcan robotic arm, equipped with tactile sensing capabilities, is noted for its efficiency in handling a wider variety of packages [13] Investment Banking and Brokerage Industry - The report outlines the high-quality expansion of the investment banking and brokerage industry, driven by new regulations aimed at enhancing the development of public funds [15][16] - The new action plan focuses on improving fund products, sales channels, and operational governance, with an emphasis on long-term performance [16][17] - Recommendations include brokerage firms with strong institutional service capabilities, such as CITIC Securities and GF Securities [18]

国泰海通晨报 2025 年 05 月 09 日 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 [Table_Summary] 1、宏观，宏观团队认为，美国无论是经济前景、通胀前景，还是降息前景，都充满了不确定性， 而其根源就来自于关税政策的不确定性和关税对经济影响机制的不确定性。短期经济数据和就业 数据韧性进一步延后降息预期，预计后续通胀压力将对降息时间和幅度形成持续掣肘，衰退交易 向滞胀交易继续发酵。 2、汽车，汽车团队认为，2025 年以来美国 Robotaxi 玩家 Waymo、特斯拉以及国内厂商小马智 行、文远知行均在持续推进自身业务进展并加快布局全球其他市场。政策方面，美国自动驾驶政 策正逐渐放宽，国内也出现更多地区颁布相关管理细则，并对远程测试示范作出要求。推荐标的 嵘泰股份、新泉股份。 3、建筑，建筑团队认为，建筑业 2024 年收入/净利润/现金流/ROE 下降，负债/应收款/减值增加， 其中八大建筑央企净利润增速有所降低，一带一路国际工程公司相对略好，设计公司业绩最差， 地方基建龙头新疆和黑龙江最好，推荐顺周期大宗、一带一路/国改重组、低估值高股息/财政化 债/基建稳增长、AI/低空经济/智驾、地产房建 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][11]. Core Views - The company's core product, Dust Mite Drops, is steadily growing, while the new product, Artemisia Annua Drops, is rapidly gaining market traction. The company is also expanding its product line with various prick test solutions and making continuous progress in R&D [3][11]. - The revenue for 2024 is projected to be 925 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 9.1%, with a net profit of 318 million yuan, an increase of 2.5% [11]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its market presence, particularly in northern regions, and has initiated patient assistance programs to improve product coverage [11]. Financial Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - 2023A: Revenue 848 million yuan, Net Profit 310 million yuan - 2024A: Revenue 925 million yuan (+9.1%), Net Profit 318 million yuan (+2.5%) - 2025E: Revenue 1,061 million yuan (+14.6%), Net Profit 353 million yuan (+11.0%) [5][12]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024A: 0.61 yuan - 2025E: 0.67 yuan - 2026E: 0.79 yuan - 2027E: 0.92 yuan [11][12]. - **Valuation Metrics**: - The report assigns a PE ratio of 35X for 2025, with a target price of 23.58 yuan [11][12]. Product Performance - **Dust Mite Drops**: Revenue reached 886 million yuan in 2024, growing by 7.86% [11]. - **Artemisia Annua Drops**: Revenue of 27.01 million yuan, a significant increase of 76.43% [11]. - **Prick Test Solutions**: Revenue of 7.30 million yuan, with a growth of 103.08% due to new product approvals [11]. R&D Progress - The company has multiple projects in the pipeline, including new prick test solutions and clinical trials for various products, indicating a robust R&D strategy [11].

Group 1: Key Recommendations - The report highlights strong performance from Shijia Photonics, with significant profit improvement and a revenue growth of 42.38% year-on-year, reaching 1.074 billion yuan in 2024 [4] - Ningde Times reported a Q1 2025 revenue of 847 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, with a net profit of 139.6 billion yuan, reflecting a 32.9% growth [7] - The real estate sector has seen a notable acceleration in land acquisition processes, with a total proposed acquisition amount exceeding 130 billion yuan since March 2025 [10] - The Tokamak nuclear fusion project is accelerating, benefiting from technological advancements and increased capital expenditure, driving rapid development in the industry chain [4] - In the biopharmaceutical sector, Inven Bio is focusing on ADC new drug development, achieving multiple licensing agreements and showcasing significant market potential [5] Group 2: Company Performance Insights - Shijia Photonics has raised its profit forecast for 2024-2026, with net profits expected to reach 0.64 billion yuan in 2024, 1.42 billion yuan in 2025, and 2.24 billion yuan in 2026, leading to an increase in target price to 26.66 yuan [3] - Ningde Times' battery sales exceeded 120 GWh in Q1 2025, with a gross margin of 24.4% and a net margin of 17.6%, indicating stable profitability [7] - Inven Bio's DB-1303 and DB-1311 products are showing promising therapeutic potential, with expected peak sales in China reaching 2.6 billion yuan and in the US reaching 1.6 billion USD [17][18] Group 3: Industry Trends - The real estate sector is experiencing a policy relaxation, with a focus on stabilizing market expectations and addressing idle land and industry debt risks [10][12] - The nuclear fusion industry is entering a rapid growth phase, with the market expected to reach 681 billion yuan by 2025-2030, driven by significant investments in experimental reactors [15] - The lithium battery sector is witnessing price stability across various materials, with lithium carbonate averaging 72,600 yuan per ton, indicating a balanced supply-demand dynamic [34]

Macro Insights - China's manufacturing sector shows resilience despite challenges from US trade policies, which are expected to lead to a slow return of manufacturing to the US due to high labor costs and incomplete supply chains [1][2] - Emerging economies face significant barriers in replacing Chinese manufacturing, with countries like Indonesia and Malaysia showing signs of premature deindustrialization, while Vietnam's manufacturing remains limited to downstream assembly [1][2] Strategy and Market Outlook - The report suggests a shift in the main contradictions affecting the Chinese stock market from economic cycles to declining discount rates, indicating a bullish outlook for Chinese A/H shares [3][4] - The Chinese stock market is expected to continue its upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising from a low of 3040 to around 3300 [2][4] Industry Focus: Food and Beverage - The konjac (魔芋) snack market is highlighted as a growing segment, driven by health trends and significant product expansion from leading companies like Salted Fish and Three Squirrels [12][14] - The konjac industry benefits from a strong value chain, with high margins in both processing and end products, and the potential for increased per capita consumption in China compared to Japan [12][13] Industry Focus: Mechanical Engineering - The report discusses advancements in controlled nuclear fusion, with significant breakthroughs in projects like the EAST and BEST, indicating a promising future for the nuclear fusion industry [15][16] - The market for nuclear fusion is projected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting a market size of $496.55 billion by 2030, driven by clean energy demand and technological advancements [18][19] Industry Trends: Real Estate - The real estate sector is experiencing a divergence between weak investment and strong sales, with a notable improvement in cash flow for developers despite ongoing challenges [27][28] - The report emphasizes the importance of structural opportunities and innovative models in the real estate market, suggesting that external pressures may accelerate internal demand [29][30]