行业比较跟踪：上游通胀可能已经接近拐点

Core Insights - The report indicates that upstream inflation may be nearing a turning point, with food prices showing significant variability, particularly in meat prices. Pork prices have increased by 4.6% year-on-year, while beef and lamb prices have decreased by 12.9% and 7.5% respectively, with lamb prices hitting historical lows [1] - The shift in consumer demand from beef and lamb to pork reflects a micro-level consumption downgrade, which has mitigated some inflationary pressures caused by supply issues [1] - The current pig cycle appears to be stabilizing, with the pig feed ratio remaining steady between 4.6 and 4.8, and the rate of reduction in breeding sows also slowing down. This suggests limited upward pressure on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) from the pig cycle [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose to -1.4% year-on-year in May, indicating a recovery in upstream prices, which is more pronounced than in midstream and downstream sectors. This price increase may have financial attributes driving it [1] Industry Analysis - The report highlights that the current environment of credit contraction in China and Japan, along with the appreciation of the US dollar, is negatively impacting inflation [15] - The global liquidity turning point is approaching, with concerns that commodity prices may return to a downward trend due to credit bottlenecks in non-US countries [15] - The report suggests that while the export and overseas market conditions remain favorable, industries such as semiconductors may benefit, but inflation cycles could limit the potential of new energy vehicles even with export advantages [15]