风格上看，各指数涨跌幅排序为：成长>0>金融>周期>消费>稳定；中盘 成长>小盘成长>中盘价值>大盘成长>小盘价值>大盘价值；基金重仓表现优 于中证全指。 分行业看，30 个中信一级行业普遍下跌；表现相对靠前的是：计算机 （1.30%），电子（1.26%），轻工制造（0.54%）；表现相对靠后的是：建材 （-2.10%），建筑（-2.01%），食品饮料（-1.68%）。概念板块方面，多数概 念板块下跌，Chiplet、AI 芯片、Sora 等大幅上涨；昨日连板、赛马、工程 机械等大幅走低。 9[Table_Title] 每日复盘 证券研究报告 2025 年 7 月 25 日 2025 年 7 月 25 日 A 股三大指数集体回调，芯片股持续拉 升 报告要点： 2025 年 7 月 25 日 A 股三大指数集体回调，芯片股持续拉升。上证指数 下跌 0.33%，深证成指下跌 0.22%，创业板指下跌 0.23%。市场成交额 17869.82 亿元，较上一交易日减少 574.20 亿元。全市场 2570 只个股上涨， 2757 只个股下跌。 资金筹码方面，主力资金 7 月 25 日净流出 573.43 亿元。其中超 ...

请务必阅读免责条款 2025 年 7 月 25 日星期五 【实时热点】 【美国债市】 资料来源：BLOOMBERG、AASTOCKS、WIND、格隆汇、国元证券经纪（香港）整理 1 证 究 报 告 券 研 特朗普当面要求鲍威尔降息 美国 7 月标普全球制造业 PMI 初值下降至 49.5，创 2024 年 12 月以来新低 欧洲央行维持三大利率不变 符合预期 欧盟通过总额 930 亿欧元的对美关税反制计划 印度与英国签署自由贸易协议 国家医保局：集采中选不再简单以最低报价作为参考 国家统计局：7 月中旬生猪(外三元)价格跌 4.6% 上海宣布调整退休人员养老金 英特尔第二季度净利润为亏损 29.2 亿美元 LVMH 集团二季度销售再度下滑 2 年期美债收益率涨 4.89 个基点报 3.918% 5 年期美债收益率涨 3.52 个基点报 3.961% 10 年期美债收益率涨 1.79 个基点报 4.398% 【经济数据】 | 重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | 海外市场重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 波罗的海干散货 ...

Market Performance - On July 24, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.65%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.21%, and the ChiNext Index gained 1.50%[2] - The total market turnover was 1,844.402 billion CNY, a decrease of 19.873 billion CNY from the previous trading day[2] - A total of 4,463 stocks rose while 916 stocks fell[2] Market Style and Sector Performance - Growth stocks outperformed other styles, with the ranking being: Growth > Cyclical > Consumer > Stable > Financial[18] - The Consumer Services sector led with a rise of 3.84%, followed by Nonferrous Metals at 2.79% and Comprehensive Finance at 2.69%[18] - The Banking sector declined by 1.38%, while Communication and Oil & Petrochemicals fell by 0.10% and 0.08%, respectively[18] Capital Flow - On July 24, 2025, the net inflow of main funds was 6.548 billion CNY, with large orders seeing a net inflow of 15.607 billion CNY and small orders continuing to see net inflows of 13.412 billion CNY[22] - The majority of ETFs, including the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300, saw a decrease in turnover compared to the previous trading day[27] Global Market Performance - Major Asian indices showed mixed results, with the Hang Seng Index up by 0.51% and the Nikkei 225 up by 1.59%[31] - European indices generally rose, with the DAX Index increasing by 0.83% and the CAC40 Index by 1.37%[31] - In the US, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1.14%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite increased by 0.78% and 0.61%, respectively[31]

Market Performance - On July 23, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated and lost the 3600-point level, closing at 3582.30, up 0.01%[15] - The Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.37%, closing at 11059.04, while the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.01%[15] - Total market turnover was 18642.75 billion CNY, a decrease of 284.50 billion CNY from the previous trading day[15] Sector and Style Analysis - Among the 30 CITIC first-level industries, most sectors declined; leading sectors included Non-Bank Financials (up 1.31%), Home Appliances (up 0.51%), and Banks (up 0.38%)[20] - The worst-performing sectors were Building Materials (down 2.56%), Defense and Military (down 1.80%), and Comprehensive Finance (down 1.35%)[20] - In terms of investment style, Financials outperformed, followed by Consumption and Growth, while Large-Cap Value stocks led over Large-Cap Growth stocks[20] Capital Flow - On July 23, 2025, the net outflow of main funds was 646.03 billion CNY, with large orders seeing a net outflow of 346.87 billion CNY and super large orders a net outflow of 299.17 billion CNY[24] - Small orders continued to see a net inflow of 609.73 billion CNY, while medium orders had a slight inflow of 10.19 billion CNY[24] ETF Trading Activity - Major ETFs such as the Huaxia SSE 50 ETF and the Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF saw varied trading volumes, with the SSE 50 ETF trading at 21.25 billion CNY, an increase of 2.14 billion CNY from the previous day[29] - The CSI 500 ETF had a trading volume of 17.65 billion CNY, up by 3.66 billion CNY, while the CSI 1000 ETF traded at 10.37 billion CNY, an increase of 2.32 billion CNY[29] Global Market Overview - On July 23, 2025, major Asia-Pacific indices closed higher, with the Hang Seng Index up 1.62% at 25538.07 points and the Nikkei 225 up 3.51% at 41171.32 points[33] - In contrast, European indices showed mixed results, with the DAX down 1.09% and the FTSE 100 up 0.12%[33]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the mechanical industry [6]. Core Insights - The low-altitude economy is receiving increased policy support, which is expected to drive growth in the sector. The government is focusing on developing new industries, models, and scenarios tailored to local conditions [3][24]. - The engineering machinery sector is projected to continue its steady growth, with strong competitive advantages for domestic leading enterprises. In June 2025, sales of various forklifts reached 137,570 units, a year-on-year increase of 23.1%, with domestic sales up 27.3% [3][4]. Weekly Market Review - From July 13 to July 18, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.69%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.04%, and the ChiNext Index by 3.17%. The Shenwan Mechanical Equipment Index increased by 2.91%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.82 percentage points, ranking 4th among 31 Shenwan primary industries [2][11]. - Among sub-industries, Shenwan General Equipment, Specialized Equipment, Rail Transit Equipment II, Engineering Machinery, and Automation Equipment saw increases of 3.60%, 2.55%, 2.48%, 1.95%, and 3.23% respectively [2][14]. Key Sector Tracking - The low-altitude economy sector is being bolstered by a large-scale vocational skills enhancement training initiative, aimed at providing talent support for the healthy development of the industry [3][25]. - The mechanical equipment sector remains strong, with domestic leading companies maintaining competitive advantages in both supply and demand. The sales of forklifts in the first half of 2025 totaled 739,334 units, a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [3][4]. Investment Recommendations - For the low-altitude economy, recommended companies include Deep City Transportation, Sujiao Science and Technology, Huasheng Group, and Nairui Radar. In the complete machine sector, focus on Wanfu Aowei, Yihang Intelligent, Zongheng Co., and Green Energy Huichong. Key component manufacturers include Zongshen Power, Wolong Electric Drive, Yingliu Co., and Yingboer [4]. - In the mechanical equipment sector, recommended companies include Juxing Technology, Quanfeng Holdings, and Jiuhua Company for the export chain. For engineering machinery, focus on Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG, and Anhui Heli. In the industrial mother machine sector, recommended companies are Huazhong CNC, Kede CNC, and Hengli Hydraulic [4].

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "Recommended" rating, with a focus on new consumption sectors such as beauty care, IP derivatives, and gold jewelry [5][35]. Core Insights - The total retail sales of consumer goods in China for the first half of 2025 reached 24.55 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 5%. In June, the retail sales totaled 4.23 trillion yuan, growing by 4.8% year-on-year, which was below the expected 8.4% due to the timing of the Dragon Boat Festival and the pre-release of demand during the 618 shopping festival [3][23]. - The beauty care sector is highlighted with significant developments, including the strategic expansion of Ai Er Bo Shi in Southeast Asia and the announcement of a new CEO at Kenvue [27][3]. - Bubble Mart is expected to see a revenue increase of no less than 200% and a profit increase of no less than 350% for the first half of 2025 [32][5]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - From July 14 to July 18, 2025, the trade retail, social services, and beauty care sectors experienced changes of +0.23%, +1.05%, and -0.14% respectively, ranking 18th, 13th, and 22nd among 31 primary industries [14][16]. Key Industry Data and News - In June 2025, the retail sales of consumer goods grew by 4.8%, with a total of 21.8 trillion yuan in goods retail sales for the first half of the year, reflecting a 5.1% year-on-year increase [23][22]. - The airline industry saw an increase in passenger flights, with nearly 118,000 flights executed nationwide in the 28th week of 2025, marking a 3.2% year-on-year rise [4][27]. Company Announcements - Bubble Mart's half-year performance forecast indicates a revenue growth of at least 200% and a profit increase of at least 350% [32][5]. - Other companies like Rongzi Co. and Longzi Co. also reported significant profit forecasts, with Rongzi expecting a profit increase of 31.74% to 55.69% [34][33]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Shangmei Co., Juzi Bio, Marumi Bio, and others within the beauty care and new consumption sectors [5][35].

Market Performance - On July 21, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.72%, closing at 3,559.79, marking a three-and-a-half-year high with a total market turnover of 16,996.87 billion yuan, an increase of 1,288.31 billion yuan from the previous trading day[2][15] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.86% to 11,007.49, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.87% to 2,296.88[2][15] - A total of 4,056 stocks rose, while 1,310 stocks fell across the market[2][15] Sector Performance - The best-performing sectors included building materials (up 5.64%), construction (up 3.73%), and steel (up 3.46%)[2][21] - The banking sector saw a decline of 0.77%, while comprehensive finance and computing sectors fell by 0.39% and 0.37%, respectively[2][21] Capital Flow - On July 21, 2025, the net outflow of main funds was 93.04 billion yuan, with large orders seeing a net outflow of 116.24 billion yuan, while small orders had a net inflow of 168.90 billion yuan[3][25] - Southbound funds recorded a net inflow of 70.52 billion HKD, with the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect contributing 39.00 billion HKD and the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect contributing 31.52 billion HKD[4][27] ETF Trading - Major ETFs such as the Huaxia SSE 50 ETF and the Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF saw changes in trading volume, with the former at 16.57 billion yuan (down 2.91 billion yuan) and the latter at 31.84 billion yuan (up 2.43 billion yuan)[3][30] - The net inflow for the CSI 1000 ETF was 2.65 billion yuan on July 18, indicating a strong interest in this fund[3][30] Global Market Overview - On July 21, 2025, the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.68% to 24,994.14, while the Australian S&P 200 Index fell by 1.02% to 8,668.20[4][34] - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.32% and the Nasdaq Composite up 0.05%[5][34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [7] Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry index increased by 2.85% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index and ranking 14th among 31 first-level industries [2][14] - The report highlights a broad increase in metal prices, driven by various factors including global geopolitical tensions and supply shortages [5] - Key investment opportunities are identified in industrial metals and rare earths [5] Summary by Sections Market Review - The non-ferrous metals industry index rose by 2.85% from July 7 to July 18, 2025, with small metals, new metal materials, and energy metals leading the gains at 13.93%, 7.71%, and 5.01% respectively [2][14] - Precious metals and industrial metals showed minimal changes, with precious metals up by 0.15% and industrial metals down by 0.56% [14] Metal Prices - As of July 18, 2025, COMEX gold closed at $3,355.50 per ounce, up 0.58% over two weeks; COMEX silver closed at $38.43 per ounce, up 3.74% [3][21] - Black tungsten concentrate (≥65%) price rose to 180,000 CNY per ton, up 4.05% [21] - The rare earth price index reported at 192.24, up 5.17% over two weeks [3][47] Important Events - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced ongoing efforts to implement high-quality development plans for the copper, aluminum, and gold industries, focusing on stabilizing growth and promoting transformation [4][63] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on industrial metals and rare earth investment opportunities due to rising prices and market demand [5]

Market Overview - Global markets showed a trend of "growth assets leading, risk aversion cooling," with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 5.53% due to easing US-China tariff negotiations and improved internet profit expectations[4] - The Nasdaq continued to reach new highs, increasing by 1.51%, driven by better-than-expected retail data and the recovery of AI chip supplies[4] - A-share market favored growth style, with total A-share trading volume increasing by 3.4% week-on-week, but valuation pressures are rising as the CSI 800 PE ratio is at the 33rd percentile of the past three years[4] Fixed Income Market - Short-term bonds outperformed long-term bonds, with 2-year treasury futures up by 0.02% while 30-year bonds fell by 0.04%, indicating a flattening yield curve[4] - The AAA credit spread has compressed to the 9th percentile of the past three years, suggesting a preference for high-grade credit bonds[4] Commodity Market - Agricultural products surged due to weather-related supply concerns, with US corn up by 3.82% and soybean meal up by 2.86%[4] - However, European shipping rates plummeted by 20.01% due to weak demand, reflecting significant divergence in the commodity market[4] Derivatives Strategy - Implied volatility for stock indices hit a three-month low, with the Shanghai 50 ETF IV dropping by 8.04%, indicating a shift from risk-averse to risk-seeking assets[4] - The current low volatility environment poses risks for option sellers, necessitating caution against potential Gamma risks[4] Asset Allocation Recommendations - Focus on short-duration high-grade credit bonds to mitigate long-term interest rate risks in the bond market[5] - Consider US equity opportunities as economic data shows marginal improvement and tariff disruptions ease[5] - Maintain a cautious stance on A-shares due to potential volatility from lowered profit expectations and policy catalysts[5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the semiconductor and semiconductor equipment industry [5] Core Insights - The approval of NVIDIA's H20 and AMD's MI308 chips for export to China is expected to significantly boost demand for AI chips in China, leading to positive performance expectations across the related industry chain [1][3] - TSMC has raised its revenue growth guidance for 2025 to a range of 30%, indicating strong demand in the semiconductor sector [3][31] - The overseas AI chip index rose by 4.3% this week, driven by the export approvals, while the domestic AI chip index increased by 1.7% [1][10] - The smartphone market saw a 1% year-on-year decline in Q2 2025, marking the first drop after six consecutive quarters of growth, with Samsung maintaining the largest market share at 19% [2][24] Market Indices Summary - The overseas AI chip index increased by 4.3% this week, with notable stock price increases for AMD (over 7%), NVIDIA, and TSMC (over 4%) [1][10] - The domestic A-share chip index rose by 1.7%, with significant gains from Cambrian (over 5%) and others [10] - The NVIDIA mapping index surged by 6.7%, reflecting increased demand expectations for AI chips [10][13] - The server ODM index grew by 2.2%, driven by the anticipated demand for servers due to the chip exports [10][15] - The domestic storage chip index fell by 0.4%, with mixed performance among various companies [10][19] - The power semiconductor index remained stable with a 1.0% increase [10][16] Industry Data Summary - In Q2 2025, global smartphone shipments decreased by 1%, with Samsung leading the market at 19% share, followed by Apple at 16% and Xiaomi at 15% [2][24] - The share of smartphones equipped with AMOLED displays rose to 63%, while LCD displays dropped to 37% [2][27] Major Events Summary - NVIDIA and AMD received U.S. government approval to sell H20 and MI308 chips in China, respectively [3][30] - Apple is set to launch a foldable iPhone using Samsung's OLED panels, with a projected price exceeding 15,000 RMB [3][30] - Several companies, including SiTew and TSMC, reported significant revenue growth forecasts for 2025 [3][31][32]