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2026年有色金属及新材料行业投资策略报告:供给约束叠加需求变化,多种金属价值面临重塑
Guoyuan Securities· 2026-01-30 10:24
[Table_Main] 行业研究|有色金属 证券研究报告 有色金属及新材料行业策略报告 2026 年 01 月 30 日 [Table_Title] 供给约束叠加需求变化,多种金属价值面临重塑 ——2026 年有色金属及新材料行业投资策略报告 [Table_Summary] 报告要点: 行业估值处于高性价比投资阶段,行业有望持续发力 截至2025 年12月 31 日,申万有色金属指数年内累计涨幅达94.73%, 在 31 个申万一级行业中,排名第 1 位,沪深 300 全年累计涨幅达 17.66%,跑赢沪深 300 指数 77.07pct。整体来看,今年有色金属板块 主要受国际局势及供给格局变化影响,部分金属价格持续新高。 全球格局变化,有色金属行业景气度持续 当前,中美等主要大国间的战略竞争持续深化,上游金属资源已成为 双方博弈的关键领域之一。此背景下,预计未来几年中美在关税、贸 易、金融等领域的摩擦将持续,对金属产业链的稳定性构成显著冲击。 供给端的扰动将推升原材料成本,而各国对战略金属的管控收紧,将 进一步加剧其价格上行压力。综合来看,有色金属的需求前景明朗, 具备明确的长期支撑。 看好贵金属、铜及战 ...
2026年有色金属及新材料行业投资策略报告:供给约束叠加需求变化,多种金属价值面临重塑-20260130
Guoyuan Securities· 2026-01-30 08:43
[Table_Main] 行业研究|有色金属 证券研究报告 有色金属及新材料行业策略报告 2026 年 01 月 30 日 [Table_Title] 供给约束叠加需求变化,多种金属价值面临重塑 ——2026 年有色金属及新材料行业投资策略报告 [Table_Summary] 报告要点: 行业估值处于高性价比投资阶段,行业有望持续发力 截至2025 年12月 31 日,申万有色金属指数年内累计涨幅达94.73%, 在 31 个申万一级行业中,排名第 1 位,沪深 300 全年累计涨幅达 17.66%,跑赢沪深 300 指数 77.07pct。整体来看,今年有色金属板块 主要受国际局势及供给格局变化影响,部分金属价格持续新高。 全球格局变化,有色金属行业景气度持续 当前,中美等主要大国间的战略竞争持续深化,上游金属资源已成为 双方博弈的关键领域之一。此背景下,预计未来几年中美在关税、贸 易、金融等领域的摩擦将持续,对金属产业链的稳定性构成显著冲击。 供给端的扰动将推升原材料成本,而各国对战略金属的管控收紧,将 进一步加剧其价格上行压力。综合来看,有色金属的需求前景明朗, 具备明确的长期支撑。 看好贵金属、铜及战 ...
牧原股份(2714.HK)IPO申购指南:建议谨慎申购
Guoyuan Securities· 2026-01-30 00:25
IPO 申购指南 牧原股份(2714.HK) 建议谨慎申购 2026-01-29 星期四 【招股详情】 | 保荐人 | | | 摩根士丹利、中信证券、高盛 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上市日期 | 2026 年 | 月 | | 日(周五) | | | | 2 | 6 | | 招股价格 | 港元 39.00 | | | | | | | | | | 集资额 | 104.597 | | | | 亿港元(扣除包销费用和全球发售有关的估计费用) | | | | | | 每手股数 | 股 100 | | | | | | | | | | 入场费 | 3,939.34 | 港元 | | | | | | | | | 招股日期 | 年 2026 | 月 | | 日-2026 | 月 日 2 3 | 年 | | 1 | 29 | | 国元证券认购截止日期 | 2026 年 | 月 | 日 | | | | | 2 | 2 | | 招股总数 | 27395.14 | | | | 万股(可予调整及视乎超额配售权 ...
卓正医疗(02677.HK):IPO申购指南
Guoyuan Securities· 2026-01-30 00:25
IPO 申购指南 卓正医疗(02677.HK) 建议谨慎申购 2026-1-29 星期四 | 【招股详情】 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 保荐人 | | 浦银国际、海通国际 | | | | | | | | | | 上市日期 | 年 2026 | 2 | 月 6 | 日(周五) | | | | | | | | 招股价格 | 57.7-66.6 | | 港元 | | | | | | | | | 集资额 | 2.19 | | | | | | | 亿港元(按照中间价,扣除包销费用和全球发售有关的估计费用) | | | | 每手股数 | 50 股 | | | | | | | | | | | 入场费 | 3364 | 港元 | | | | | | | | | | 招股日期 | 2026 年 | 1 | 月 29 | 日-2026 | 年 2 | | 3 | 日 | 月 | | | 国元证券认购截止日期 | 2026 年 | 2 | 月 2 | 日 | | | | | | ...
机械行业周报:低空发展稳健,看好工程机械增长
Guoyuan Securities· 2026-01-29 02:55
2026 年 1 月 18 日至 1 月 23 日,上证综指上涨 0.84%,深证成指上 涨 1.11%,创业板指下降 0.34%。其中申万机械设备上涨 2.57%,相 较沪深 300 指数跑赢 3.19pct,在 31 个申万一级行业中排名第 13。 细分子行业来看,申万通用设备/专用设备/轨交设备Ⅱ/工程机械/自动 化设备分别涨 3.33%/2.55%/2.59%/1.33%/2.29%。 na[Table_Main] 行业研究|工业 证券研究报告 重点板块跟踪 低空经济板块:本周,低空经济在垂直行业深度赋能与文旅新场景拓 展上取得重要政策进展。福建省农业农村厅发布《关于发展低空经济 助力现代农业发展的若干措施(征求意见稿)》,提出到 2030 年全省 推广农用无人机 10000 台以上、培育飞手 10000 人以上、年作业服 务面积达 2500 万亩次的具体目标,系统规划了无人机在种植、养殖、 防灾等领域的应用场景。与此同时,经济日报刊文聚焦"积极拓展低 空经济应用场景",指出"低空+文旅"是颇具潜力的方向,并以重庆 低空飞行消费周带动消费超 2 亿元、川渝跨省低空文旅航线开通为例, 展示了新业态对消费 ...
机械行业周报:低空发展稳健,看好工程机械增长-20260129
Guoyuan Securities· 2026-01-29 02:19
na[Table_Main] 行业研究|工业 证券研究报告 工业行业周报 2026 年 1 月 29 日 [Table_Title] 低空发展稳健,看好工程机械增长 ——机械行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告要点: 周度行情回顾 2026 年 1 月 18 日至 1 月 23 日,上证综指上涨 0.84%,深证成指上 涨 1.11%,创业板指下降 0.34%。其中申万机械设备上涨 2.57%,相 较沪深 300 指数跑赢 3.19pct,在 31 个申万一级行业中排名第 13。 细分子行业来看,申万通用设备/专用设备/轨交设备Ⅱ/工程机械/自动 化设备分别涨 3.33%/2.55%/2.59%/1.33%/2.29%。 重点板块跟踪 低空经济板块:本周,低空经济在垂直行业深度赋能与文旅新场景拓 展上取得重要政策进展。福建省农业农村厅发布《关于发展低空经济 助力现代农业发展的若干措施(征求意见稿)》,提出到 2030 年全省 推广农用无人机 10000 台以上、培育飞手 10000 人以上、年作业服 务面积达 2500 万亩次的具体目标,系统规划了无人机在种植、养殖、 防灾等领域的应用场景。与此同时 ...
商社美护行业周报:泡泡玛特3.5亿港元连续回购,黄金价格连续上涨
Guoyuan Securities· 2026-01-28 02:45
e _ M 金价格连续上涨 ——商社美护行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告要点: 市场表现 T a [ 行业研究|可选消费 证券研究报告 可选消费行业周报、月报 2026 年 01 月 28 日 b l [Table_Title] 泡泡玛特 3.5 亿港元连续回购,黄 维持行业"推荐"评级,重点关注服务消费,以及美护、IP 衍生品、 黄金珠宝等新消费板块。标的方面关注:若羽臣、毛戈平、上美股份、 泡泡玛特、潮宏基、老铺黄金等。 风险提示 ] 本周(2026.01.19-2026.01.23),商贸零售/社会服务/美容护理分别 +2.16%/+3.20%/+1.98%,在 31 个一级行业中排名第 16/12/17,同期 上证综指+0.84%,深证成指+1.11%,沪深 300-0.62%。 本周行业重点事件及资讯 2025 年社会消费品零售总额 50.12 万亿,同比+3.69%。12 月社零总 额 4.51 万亿元,同比+0.9%,低于 wind 一致预期的 1.5%。分消费 类型来看,2025 年商品零售累计值达 44.32 万亿,同比+3.76%;餐 饮收入 5.8 万亿,同比+3.21%。 ...
商社美护行业周报:泡泡玛特3.5亿港元连续回购,黄金价格连续上涨-20260128
Guoyuan Securities· 2026-01-28 02:12
T a [ 行业研究|可选消费 证券研究报告 可选消费行业周报、月报 2026 年 01 月 28 日 b l [Table_Title] 泡泡玛特 3.5 亿港元连续回购,黄 e _ M 金价格连续上涨 ——商社美护行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告要点: 市场表现 ] 本周(2026.01.19-2026.01.23),商贸零售/社会服务/美容护理分别 +2.16%/+3.20%/+1.98%,在 31 个一级行业中排名第 16/12/17,同期 上证综指+0.84%,深证成指+1.11%,沪深 300-0.62%。 本周行业重点事件及资讯 2025 年社会消费品零售总额 50.12 万亿,同比+3.69%。12 月社零总 额 4.51 万亿元,同比+0.9%,低于 wind 一致预期的 1.5%。分消费 类型来看,2025 年商品零售累计值达 44.32 万亿,同比+3.76%;餐 饮收入 5.8 万亿,同比+3.21%。分行业来看,2025 年消费品以旧换 新带动限额以上单位家电零售额增长 11%,通讯器材/文化办公用品/ 家具零售额分别+20.9%/+17.3%/+14.6%。限额以上单 ...
传媒行业周报:OpenAI ARR突破200亿美元,元宝宣布投入10亿春节现金红包
Guoyuan Securities· 2026-01-27 06:24
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's performance [5][29]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant growth in AI applications, with OpenAI's annual recurring revenue (ARR) expected to exceed $20 billion by 2025, driven by advancements in computing power and product commercialization [3][26]. - The gaming sector shows strong performance, with top mobile games achieving high download numbers and revenue rankings, indicating robust consumer engagement [2][17]. - The film industry is experiencing a resurgence, with a total box office of 304 million yuan in the last week, and several films scheduled for release during the upcoming Spring Festival [22][24]. Market Performance - From January 19 to January 25, 2026, the media industry (Shenwan) increased by 1.98%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 0.84% [12]. - Within the media sector, advertising and marketing led the gains with a 6.05% increase, while digital media saw a decline of 3.96% [12][16]. Industry Key Data AI Applications - For the week of January 12 to January 18, 2026, the estimated iOS downloads for major AI applications were as follows: Deepseek at 238,700, Doubao at 2,100,900, Tencent Yuanbao at 807,000, and Qianwen Qimai at 1,233,700, with respective week-over-week changes of -14.52%, +0.87%, +2.27%, and +15.66% [2][17]. - The weekly token usage on the OpenRouter platform was 7.50 trillion, showing a slight decrease of 1.96% [2][17]. Gaming Data - The top five mobile games on iOS as of January 24, 2026, were "Honor of Kings," "Peacekeeper Elite," "Crossfire: Gunfight King," "Endless Winter," and "Arknights: End of the World," with "Arknights" achieving over 30 million downloads globally [2][19]. - Upcoming game releases include "Survival 33 Days" by 37 Interactive Entertainment, scheduled for February 15, and "EVE," an AI companion product by a company invested in by Kying Network, expected to launch on March 14 [21][26]. Film Data - The total box office for domestic films reached 304 million yuan, with "Return to Silent Hill" leading the weekly box office at 66.06 million yuan, accounting for 21.7% of the total [22][23]. - Four films have been scheduled for the Spring Festival, including "Fast Life 3" and "Silent Awakening" [24]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on themes such as AI applications and cultural exports, with particular attention to sub-sectors like gaming, IP, short dramas, marketing, and publishing. Specific companies highlighted for investment include Giant Network, Kying Network, Perfect World, 37 Interactive Entertainment, Century Huatong, and others [3][27].
传媒行业周报:OpenAIARR突破200亿美元,元宝宣布投入10亿春节现金红包-20260127
Guoyuan Securities· 2026-01-27 06:09
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's performance [5][29]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant growth in AI applications, with OpenAI's annual recurring revenue (ARR) expected to exceed $20 billion by 2025, driven by advancements in computing power and product commercialization [3][26]. - The gaming sector shows strong performance, with top mobile games achieving high download numbers and revenue rankings, indicating robust consumer engagement [2][17]. - The film industry is experiencing a resurgence, with a total box office of 304 million yuan in the week of January 19-25, 2026, and several films scheduled for release during the upcoming Spring Festival [22][23]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - From January 19 to January 25, 2026, the media industry (Shenwan) increased by 1.98%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 0.84% [12]. - The advertising and marketing sector led the gains with a 6.05% increase, while digital media saw a decline of 3.96% [12][16]. Key Industry Data AI Application Data - For the week of January 12-18, 2026, the estimated iOS downloads for major AI applications showed varied performance, with Deepseek down by 14.52% and Tencent's Yuanbao up by 2.27% [2][17]. - The weekly token usage on the OpenRouter platform was 7.50 trillion, reflecting a slight decrease of 1.96% [2][17]. Gaming Data - The top five mobile games on iOS as of January 24, 2026, included "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite," with "Tomorrow's Ark: The End of Days" entering the top five shortly after its release [2][19]. - Upcoming game releases include "Survival 33 Days" set for February 15 and "EVE," an AI companion app, expected to launch on March 14 [21][26]. Film Data - The total box office for domestic films reached 304 million yuan, with "Return to Silent Hill" leading the week with a box office of 66.06 million yuan [22][23]. - Four films have been scheduled for the Spring Festival, indicating a strong pipeline for theatrical releases [22][23]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on themes such as AI applications and cultural exports, with specific attention to sub-sectors like gaming, IP, short dramas, marketing, and publishing [3][27]. - Notable companies to watch include Giant Network, Perfect World, and Kuaishou, among others [3][27].