“科特估”：产业逻辑与资金驱动

Long-term Perspective - The report highlights the shift from cooperation to competition between China and the US, emphasizing the rise of protectionism and trade friction since 2018, which has led to a comprehensive technological blockade against China [2][25][27] - China's manufacturing sector has benefited from globalization, leveraging its low labor costs and large market to become a major player in global trade, with manufacturing value added accounting for 27% of global manufacturing value [19][25][45] Mid-term Perspective - The concept of "new quality productivity" is identified as a key focus for central enterprises, which are expected to play a significant role in developing disruptive and frontier technologies through substantial R&D investments [54][81] - The report anticipates a new wave of state-owned enterprise (SOE) reforms aimed at creating "chain leader" enterprises that enhance supply chain resilience and security, with a focus on optimizing resource allocation [57][59] - SOEs are expected to engage in mergers and acquisitions to empower leading companies in specific sectors, enhancing their technological capabilities and market positions [60][90] Short-term Perspective - The upcoming Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee is expected to catalyze significant reforms, potentially boosting market sentiment and risk appetite for technology stocks [35][66] - The establishment of the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund Phase III, with a registered capital of 344 billion RMB, is projected to provide strong support for the semiconductor industry, enhancing market confidence [94] - The semiconductor sector is currently experiencing an upward cycle, with revenue growth of 19.7% and profit growth of 53.52% reported in the first quarter [69]