化学制药 聚焦创新抗菌，开拓感染治疗新蓝海 ——盟科药业深度报告 盟科药业-U（688373.SH） 证券研究报告/公司深度报告 2025 年 07 月 21 日 | 评级： | 增持（首次） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 2023A | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 分析师：祝嘉琦 | | 营业收入（百万元） | | 91 | 130 | 174 | 205 | 249 | | | | 增长率 yoy% | | 88% | 44% | 34% | 18% | 22% | | 执业证书编号：S0740519040001 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | | -421 | -441 | -459 | -504 | -328 | | Email：zhujq@zts.com.cn | | 增长率 yoy% | | -91% | -5% | -4% | -10% | 35% | | | | 每股收益（元） | | -0.6 ...

分析师：戴志锋 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 Email：daizf@zts.com.cn 【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】传媒互联网康雅雯：国内短剧端原生市 场飙升，海外短剧收入持续高增——2025 年 6 月短剧数据更新 证券研究报告/晨会聚焦 2025 年 07 月 17 日 欢迎关注中泰研究所订阅号 晨报内容回顾 1、《【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】策略 徐驰：特朗普 2.0 与"十五五规划" 下的市场将如何演绎？——2025 年 下半年策略展望》2025-07-17 2、《【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】固收 吕品：故事大切换——2025 年固定收 益中期策略》2025-07-15 3、《【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】传媒 互联网康雅雯：短剧扬帆出海，AI 赋 能迎来新机遇》2025-07-14 今日预览 今日重点>> 【传媒互联网】康雅雯：国内短剧端原生市场飙升，海外短剧收入持续 高增-——2025 年 6 月短剧数据更新 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 今日重点 【传媒互联网】康雅雯：国内短剧端原生市场飙升，海外短剧收入持续高增-——2025 年 6 月短剧 数据更新 海外短剧： 2025 年 6 月，出海短剧平台 ...

Email：hejy02@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740524070006 执业证书编号：S0740523020004 乘用车 | | | Email：baizz@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(百万股) | 1,633.37 | | 流通股本(百万股) | 1,509.78 | | 市价(元) | 130.12 | | 市值(百万元) | 212,533.60 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 212,533.60 | 相关报告 1、《赛力斯（601127.SH）：鸿蒙智 行合作典范，高确定性豪华 SUV 龙 头》2025-02-20 赛力斯（601127.SH） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 07 月 16 日 | 评级： | 买入（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 分析师：何俊艺 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Since 2025, the bond market has shown a "mountain" - shaped trend, with various meta - stories attracting market attention. However, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield has been oscillating within a narrow range around 1.75%, and it is difficult for interest rates to break through previous lows due to multiple constraints [3][7]. - The market needs to reconstruct stories in several aspects, such as the decoupling of real estate and interest rates, explaining new consumption through structural "breakthroughs", the end of the global low - interest - rate era, focusing on the endogenous economic momentum, and the need for step - by - step verification from commodity supply - demand, PPI - CPI to interest rates [3]. - In the second half of the year, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield is expected to be between 1.6% and 1.9%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond yield between 1.8% and 2.1%. The funds will remain flat, the yield curve will steepen, and the long - end bond interest rate will be priced around the policy rate + funds rate weighted + 30/40BP, with the interest rate peak likely to occur in the fourth quarter [3][137]. - In terms of strategies, it is recommended to maintain a neutral duration. For credit bonds, look for opportunities in short - end credit sinking and long - end high - grade bonds; for interest - rate bonds, seek opportunities in old bonds, local bonds, and non - key - maturity Treasury bonds [138][143]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamentals: Growth without Real Estate, Desensitization of Commodities and Interest Rates - The influence of the real estate sector on the bond market and GDP has been declining. The trading volume proportion of real - estate - related stocks in the A - share market has decreased from 5.58% in 2015 to 1.04% in 2025, and its weight in the Shanghai Composite Index has dropped from 4.32% in 2016 to 1.17%. The impact of real estate fluctuations on GDP has also weakened [9]. - Commodity prices, represented by real - estate - related commodities such as rebar and glass, have continued to decline. The prices of rebar and glass futures have dropped by 9% and 24% respectively as of June 30 [16]. - By observing economic indicators excluding real estate and liquor, it can be found that the market risk preference has increased, and asset prices are decoupling from the real - estate chain and the liquor industry [18][23]. 3.2 Inflation: New Consumption "Everywhere", but "Invisible" in Prices - The CPI growth rate has been low this year, but there are some signs of new consumption, such as the popularity of premium blind boxes and high - end beauty products. The traditional inflation framework may have failed, and the re - inflation framework of optional consumption has emerged [26]. - The Lego price index shows that Lego investment has a high return rate, and its price increase is not in line with the global CPI trend. China's new consumption represented by trendy toys may be experiencing a "Lego moment" [30]. - The growth logic of trendy toys such as Lego and Pop Mart is similar, including first - level quantity control, second - level circulation platforms, emotional value provision, etc. The new consumption represented by trendy toys may be at the starting point of price increases, and the traditional inflation narrative is changing [33][37]. 3.3 Economic "Scar Effect" Integral Repair: Endogenous Growth Curve of Technology and Consumption Phenomena 3.3.1 Bottom - up Integration of Technology and Consumption - The development of the technology industry, such as the rise of DeepSeek, is the result of the overseas AI model impact - response structure. The development of the AI industry has promoted the growth of product performance and asset prices [38][40]. - The growth of new consumption is also the result of long - term "integration". The performance growth of new - consumption companies is not fully reflected in their stock prices. The popularity of trendy toys represented by Pop Mart is the response to the endogenous demand of new - consumption structure [41][45]. 3.3.2 Looking at Consumption through Subsidies: Is it Demand Front - loading or Release of Endogenous Momentum? - The national subsidy for trading in old products for new ones has boosted social retail sales. However, there are concerns about the continuation of the subsidy in the second half of the year. Even if the subsidy declines, consumption still has growth potential in non - subsidy commodities and service - based consumption [51][58]. 3.4 Global Interest - Rate Perspective: The Lagged Effect of China's Interest Rates Breaking out of the "ZLB" (Zero - Lower - Bound) Zone 3.4.1 Global Perspective: Quantitative Evidence of the Gradual Rise of the Interest - Rate Level - Most countries have basically emerged from the ZLB zone. The global interest - rate factor has shown an upward trend, and China's bond market has had an independent downward trend in the past three years, but the future interest - rate level may rebound with the global trend [68][71]. - Through principal component analysis of the policy rates of 39 major countries and regions, the first and second factors have an explanatory power of 66.81% and 23.29% respectively. China's interest - rate trend is relatively independent of these global factors [74]. 3.4.2 China's Interest Rates May be Experiencing the Lagged Conduction of the Global Interest - Rate Upturn - Most countries that entered the low - interest - rate zone did not stay there permanently. Japan, which has been in the low - interest - rate zone for the longest time, also had multiple interest - rate rebounds. China's interest - rate decline may be a lagged effect, and it is difficult for China's interest rates to remain low independently of the global trend for a long time [82][94]. 3.4.3 Internal Factors Determine the Direction, External Factors Determine the Fluctuation - Tariffs are not the decisive factor for asset prices and the economic fundamentals this year. The internal factors of consumption, such as the recovery of tourism consumption, the formation of new - consumption trends, and the increase in consumer - loan growth, are more important [104][106]. - A stable trading framework for dealing with external tariff events can be established in three steps: setting a baseline, making qualitative predictions, and adjusting the baseline according to market changes [110]. 3.5 Institutional Behavior: Liability Shortage under Sufficient Liquidity? - The characteristics of institutional behavior this year are limited allocation - disk funds and a decline in the winning rate of trading - disk operations. Insurance companies have shifted to equity assets, and banks have suffered from liability - end losses, while rural commercial banks, as the main trading - disk institutions, have a lower winning rate [111][114]. - The change from sufficient liquidity to liability shortage is mainly due to the transformation of deposits from time to demand and the transfer from bank deposits to non - bank deposits. This will bring problems such as pressure on bank certificate of deposit issuance, differences in the assets and liabilities of large and small banks, and banks' need to sell bonds to support profits [118][126]. - Insurance companies' bond - buying behavior has shown trading characteristics, and bank - wealth management growth has been relatively weak [128][130]. 3.6 Changes are Brewing in the Quietness - The stock, bond, and commodity markets have shown seemingly contradictory trends this year. The equity market is relatively strong, the bond market is average, and the commodity market is weak. The pricing of the equity market is more leading and sensitive [134]. - In the second half of the year, the central bank's total - volume monetary policy is not expected to be overly loose. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield is expected to be between 1.6% and 1.9%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond yield between 1.8% and 2.1%. The yield curve will steepen, and the interest - rate peak may occur in the fourth quarter [136][137]. - Technically, the Treasury - bond futures price is in a volatile market, and there are still cautious factors in the medium term. In terms of strategies, it is recommended to maintain a neutral duration and look for opportunities in credit and interest - rate bonds [138][143].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector [2] Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in credit growth, with government bonds remaining a primary support item. In June, social financing increased by 900.8 billion yuan year-on-year, with a total of 4.2 trillion yuan added, surpassing market expectations [9][10] - The structure of social financing shows a significant increase in credit, with a notable rise in government bond issuance, which reached 1.3508 trillion yuan in June, up 503.2 billion yuan year-on-year [10][12] Summary by Sections Social Financing Growth - In June, social financing increased by 900.8 billion yuan compared to the same month last year, with a total of 4.2 trillion yuan added, exceeding consensus expectations. The year-on-year growth rate of social financing reached 8.9%, a 0.2 percentage point increase from May [9][10] Credit Situation - New loans in June amounted to 2.24 trillion yuan, an increase of 110 billion yuan year-on-year, which is higher than market expectations. The year-on-year growth rate of credit balance was 7.1%, with the growth rate remaining stable compared to the previous month [12][13] - The credit structure indicates that various types of general loans (excluding bills) have increased year-on-year, while the characteristics of bill financing have weakened. Specifically, corporate short-term loans saw a significant increase [13][18] Liquidity and Deposit Situation - In June, M1 growth rate significantly increased, and the gap between M2 and M1 narrowed. M0, M1, and M2 grew by 12.0%, 4.6%, and 8.3% year-on-year, respectively [6][12] - The total increase in RMB deposits in June was 3.21 trillion yuan, which is 750 billion yuan more than the same period last year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.3% [6][12] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the banking sector, particularly regional banks with strong certainty and advantages, such as Jiangsu Bank and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank. It also highlights the importance of high dividend stability in large banks [6][12]

Group 1: Meeting Overview - The Central Urban Work Conference was held on July 14-15, 2025, emphasizing the transition from "large-scale incremental expansion" to "stock quality improvement" in urban development[3] - The meeting highlighted the importance of high-quality urban development, with a focus on "in-depth development" and "urban renewal" as key strategies[3] Group 2: Real Estate Policy Insights - The conference proposed to "accelerate the construction of a new model for real estate development" and to "steadily promote the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated housing," but did not introduce strong stimulus measures[3] - The overall tone regarding real estate was neutral and cautious, lacking the anticipated "large-scale urban village renovation to drive investment"[3] Group 3: Urban Renewal and Infrastructure - Emphasis was placed on "steady progress" in urban village and dilapidated housing renovations, reflecting a cautious approach to avoid new debt risks and overheating housing prices[3] - The meeting outlined a clear long-term strategy for urban renewal and the development of modern urban clusters, indicating a shift from land-driven growth to quality-driven development[3] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining a "barbell strategy" in investment, focusing on stable sectors like bonds and dividends while also considering opportunities in technology sectors[3] - The anticipated economic pressure in the second half of the year suggests a cautious approach to real estate and infrastructure investments, with a focus on structural opportunities in related industries[3]

中泰正容 证券研究报告:金属观察系列 全球制造业PMI跟踪:6月,阶段性 谢鸿鹤( SAC证书编号:S0740517080003 ) 陈凯丽( SAC证书编号: S0740525050001 ) 安永超( SAC证书编号:S0740522090002 ) 2025年07月15日 中 泰 证 券 研 究 所 专 业 | 领 先 | 深 度 | 诚 信 25年6月全球制造业PMI (J.P.Morqan Global Manufacturing PMI)指数录得50.3，环比回升0.8个百分点，显著回升至扩张区间。若以2023年1月 份为启动点，目前本轮周期累计运行30个月，若以2023年6月为起始点（第二个低点），目前本轮周期累计运行25个月;而平均历史周期期度为 41个月。 具体来看: >结构上,6月全球制造业PMI呈现供需双回升格局,生产端和需求端均恢复至扩张区间。 >区域上,多数区域景气度均有好转,新兴市场大幅回升1.2个百分点,恢复至扩张区间,需要关注的是: 1、中国制造业现实好转但预期偏弱,订单回流给企业带来补库的刺激,但关税政策不明朗带来偏弱预期。 2、美国制造业超预期回升,虽然生产端显著上升至扩张 ...

证券研究报告 信用业务周报 "大而美"法案与美越谈判后市场或如何演绎？ 2025年7月14日 中泰证券研究所 分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 分析师：张文宇 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明 【市场回顾】 2 【市场观察】"大而美"法案与美越谈判对市场影响几何？ 3 • 一、"大而美"法案与美越谈判对市场影响几何？ • "大而美"法案大幅提升美国债务上限，但美债风险有限。虽然"大而美"法案的通过意味着未来将有更多 美债发行，但其高收益率特征及当前宏观环境共同作用，将使海外资本在特朗普政策不确定性缓解后 ，回流美国市场，从而有效对冲因举债造成的流动性抽血压力。同时，第三季度美国若能与多国达成 新的贸易协议，美联储有望启动降息周期。降息带来的利率下行预期，将压低美债收益率，进一步增 加债券吸引力，使得国际资本持续买入美债。因此，在中短期来看，这种国际资本的买盘和潜在的降 息预期，将对冲新增举债所带来的流动性冲击，降低美债"黑天鹅"风险。虽然从中长期来看，大规模 持续举债可能会削弱美国的债务效率，但眼下市场风险已明显缓释。 • "大而美"法 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, indicating an expected increase in performance relative to the benchmark index over the next 6 to 12 months [2][14]. Core Insights - The recent policy change aims to extend the assessment period for state-owned commercial insurance companies, promoting long-term stable investments and preventing short-term performance pressures [5]. - The adjustment in performance evaluation metrics emphasizes a balanced approach between annual and multi-year indicators, enhancing the focus on sustainable growth and risk management [5]. - The report highlights that the insurance sector is increasingly favoring high-dividend stocks, with a notable increase in equity allocations, reflecting a strategic shift towards long-term value investments [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The total market capitalization of the industry is approximately 31,377.86 billion, with a circulating market value of 31,369.21 billion [2]. Policy Implications - The new directive from the Ministry of Finance encourages insurance funds to act as stabilizers in the market, promoting long-term investment strategies [5]. - The report notes that the new accounting standards for insurance contracts will be fully implemented by January 1, 2026, which is expected to positively influence the assessment of insurance companies [5]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the extended assessment period will likely reduce the negative impact of equity asset fluctuations on profit assessments, thereby increasing the tolerance for equity allocation among insurance companies [5]. - The performance of the non-bank insurance stock index has significantly outperformed the market, with an absolute return of 13.17% and a relative return of 11.14% since the beginning of 2025 [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Increase" for the coal industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - The coal price rebound is expected to exceed expectations due to continuous improvement in supply and demand margins [1]. - The report highlights strong support for coal prices driven by increased electricity demand during high-temperature weather, with significant historical peaks in power load recorded [7]. - The "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to create long-term uncertainties in domestic coal supply, while short-term supply is affected by heavy rainfall [6][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The coal industry consists of 37 listed companies with a total market value of 17,077.38 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 16,672.70 billion yuan [2]. 2. Price Tracking - The report notes that the price of thermal coal at the Qinhuangdao port was 637 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 9 yuan/ton [8]. - The average daily production of thermal coal from 462 sample mines was 5.642 million tons, showing a slight decrease compared to the previous week [8]. 3. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report indicates that the demand for thermal coal is expected to rise due to increased electricity consumption during the summer heat, with a historical peak load of 2.52 million kilowatts recorded in the southern power grid [7]. - The supply side is constrained by heavy rainfall affecting production capacity, with the utilization rate of coal mines in the Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia regions at 80.4% [6]. 4. Company Performance and Recommendations - Key companies recommended for investment include Yancoal Energy, Guohui Energy, and Shanxi Coal International, which are expected to benefit from the rebound in coal prices [6][7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-elasticity stocks in the coal sector, particularly those related to thermal and coking coal [6][7].