商业银行业5月金融数据点评：信贷继续“挤水分”，需求仍待修复

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Insights - The financial data for May indicates that credit continues to be "squeezed," with demand still needing recovery. The total financial indicators are losing comparability with previous data due to policy impacts [2][3]. - In May, new RMB loans increased by 950 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 410 billion, with a loan balance growth rate of 9.3%, showing a 0.3 percentage point decline compared to the previous month [3]. - The total social financing (TSF) increased by 2.07 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 506.2 billion, with a TSF stock growth rate of 8.4%, reflecting a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous month [3]. - The report highlights weak corporate loan performance, attributed to policy disturbances and poor actual financing demand, as indicated by a decline in PMI data [3]. - On the household side, short-term loans saw a minimal increase, while medium to long-term loans also showed a significant year-on-year decrease, reflecting low household financing demand [3]. - The report anticipates that credit will continue to decrease year-on-year in June 2024, influenced by high base effects and changes in financial accounting methods [3]. - The report emphasizes the need to focus on the quality and effectiveness of financial support for the real economy, as the correlation between financial scale indicators and economic development is gradually weakening [3]. - The report recommends focusing on banks with strong fundamentals, specifically highlighting Jiangsu Bank, Suzhou Bank, and China Merchants Bank as key investment opportunities [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Data Overview - May new RMB loans: 950 billion, down 410 billion year-on-year; loan balance growth: +9.3% [3]. - TSF increment: 2.07 trillion, up 506.2 billion year-on-year; TSF stock growth: +8.4% [3]. Corporate and Household Loan Analysis - Corporate short-term loans decreased by 120 billion, medium to long-term loans added 500 billion, both showing significant year-on-year declines [3]. - Household short-term loans increased by 24.3 billion, medium to long-term loans added 51.4 billion, both reflecting low demand [3]. Future Outlook - Anticipation of continued year-on-year credit decrease in June 2024 due to high base effects [3]. - Emphasis on the importance of financial support quality for the real economy [3]. - Recommendations for investment in specific banks with strong performance [3].