略 研 究 报 告 海 外 策 略 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 Page 1 of 5 策 [Table_Title] 策略研究报告 2025年9月5日 | 周浩 | 黄凯鸿 | +852 2509 7582 | +852 2509 7214 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | hao.zhou@gtjas.com.hk | kaihong.huang@gtjas.com.hk | [Table_Summary] | 美股策略：降息能否打破 | 月"魔咒" | 9 | | | | | | | | | 标普 | 指数在 | 月通常表现偏弱 | 500 | 9 | | | | | | | | | | 每年9月标普500指数的涨跌幅 | 4.0% | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 0.4% | | | | | | | | | | 0.0% ...

Cross-Chain Technology Comparison - Mainstream cross-chain technology solutions can be categorized into three types: Relay Chain/Side Chain, Hash Time Lock/Atomic Swap, and Cross-Chain Bridge (Notary Model) [2] - Relay Chain/Side Chain relies on a central hub to verify and coordinate communication between sub-chains, akin to the "TCP/IP protocol" of blockchains [2] - Hash Time Lock/Atomic Swap ensures that transactions on different chains either succeed or fail simultaneously, maintaining atomicity [2] - Cross-Chain Bridge utilizes a group of trusted notary nodes to monitor events on the source chain and execute corresponding operations on the target chain [2] Trust Models and Challenges - Relay Chain/Side Chain centralizes trust in the security and consensus of the relay chain, while Hash Time Lock is decentralized and does not require trust in third parties [2] - Cross-Chain Bridges face centralization risks as they depend on notary nodes, which may be compromised [2] - The complexity of the relay chain architecture and the reliance on its security can pose challenges for overall network safety [2] Value and Future Trends - The integration of alliance chains with public chains is a strategic choice to overcome limitations and enhance trust and value [3] - Cross-chain interoperability is essential for breaking down "value islands" and enabling asset flow across different chains, which is crucial for the digital economy's growth [3] - Establishing a "trusted institution whitelist" for cross-chain verification nodes can enhance compliance and security, particularly in regulated industries [14] Cost and Governance Considerations - Cross-chain protocols incur high development and maintenance costs due to the need for state synchronization and transaction validation across heterogeneous chains [14] - Governance challenges arise from the need to create unified rules between the strong regulatory models of alliance chains and the community-driven governance of public chains [14] - The potential for significant losses from security breaches in cross-chain bridges highlights the need for robust security measures [14]

Group 1 - Investment Rating: Buy (Maintained) [1] - Target Price: HK$52.00, unchanged from previous target [1] - Current Share Price: HK$44.10 [1] Group 2 - The company reported strong performance in Q2 2025, with revenue growth of 3.9% year-on-year and 18.6% quarter-on-quarter, reaching RMB 437.3 billion [6] - Net profit for Q2 2025 increased by 22.2% year-on-year and 78.1% quarter-on-quarter, totaling RMB 11.1 billion [6] - The overall revenue for the first half of 2025 grew by 2.6% year-on-year to RMB 806.1 billion, while net profit rose by 14.0% to RMB 17.3 billion [6] Group 3 - The company's strategic transformation is yielding results, with the electric vehicle (EV) business growing by 60.6% year-on-year [6] - AI data center business also showed significant growth, with a notable increase in AI server shipments [6] - The consumer electronics segment faced short-term pressure, but operational improvements and product structure optimization are enhancing profit margins [6] Group 4 - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are RMB 213.2 billion, RMB 241.9 billion, and RMB 274.5 billion respectively [7] - Expected net profit for the same period is RMB 5.4 billion, RMB 7.3 billion, and RMB 9.5 billion respectively [7] - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 2.388, RMB 3.245, and RMB 4.204 respectively [7] Group 5 - The automotive intelligent system revenue is projected to grow significantly, reaching RMB 28.6 billion in 2025 [7] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 7.6% in 2025 to 8.5% in 2027 [11] - The company maintains a strong balance sheet with a net gearing ratio of 16.7% for FY25 [7][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for BOC Hong Kong with a target price of HK$42.35, revised from the previous target price of HK$38.50 [2][7]. Core Insights - BOC Hong Kong's net interest income for the first half of 2025 met expectations, while non-interest income significantly exceeded expectations, driven by a 25.8% year-on-year increase in net service fees and commissions [7]. - The bank's operating profit before provisions grew by 16.5% year-on-year, supported by strong cost control with a cost-to-income ratio of 20.8% [7]. - The bank's asset quality continues to improve, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.02%, which is below the industry average in Hong Kong [7]. - The report highlights potential catalysts for growth, including opportunities in digital assets, cross-border wealth management, and favorable policies that may boost the economy [7]. Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023, BOC Hong Kong reported a net interest income of HK$51,078 million and a net profit of HK$32,723 million [8]. - The forecast for 2025 includes a net interest income of HK$49,780 million and a net profit of HK$40,814 million, reflecting a 4.4% increase in net profit compared to 2024 [8]. - The bank's basic earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be HK$3.860 for 2025, with a dividend per share (DPS) of HK$2.165, indicating a dividend yield of 6.1% [9]. Share Price Performance - Over the past year, BOC Hong Kong's share price has increased by 53.8%, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 11.8% [5][6]. - The average share price over the last three months was HK$35.4, with a recent price of HK$35.220 [5][7].

Group 1: Market Trends - The global bond market has experienced a rare synchronized sell-off, with the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield surpassing 5%, marking a new high in over a decade[4] - European long-term bonds, including those from France, Italy, and Germany, have also faced significant selling pressure, with some yields rising more than U.S. Treasuries during certain periods[4] - The rise in long-term rates reflects a return of global term premiums and a shift in market logic, where both U.S. and European long-term rates are increasing, but the euro is weakening, providing a respite for the dollar[3] Group 2: Economic Factors - The increase in European bond yields is more about pricing "risk" rather than "growth," driven by concerns over fiscal discipline, deficit expansion, and energy transition costs[6] - The market's reassessment of European asset credit quality and liquidity has led to a capital flight from the eurozone back to dollar assets[6] - The Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts in September could create a dynamic balance between bond market turbulence and policy responses, with the risk of reigniting inflation expectations if cuts are too aggressive[9] Group 3: Investment Implications - The traditional logic of "long-duration government bonds as a safe haven" is being challenged, necessitating a restructuring of asset allocation strategies[10] - In a high-rate environment, high-quality short-duration credit assets and highly liquid instruments may become more attractive, while long-duration investments require more precise risk management[10] - The transition from a "central bank-led pricing system" to a "market-led risk pricing" indicates a deeper change in trust mechanisms within the market, where each rate fluctuation reflects a reassessment of sovereign credit and fiscal discipline[10]

Group 1: Blockchain Architecture - Consortium blockchains emphasize performance, privacy, and governance efficiency, widely applied in finance, government, and healthcare sectors[3] - Public blockchains represent openness and decentralization, driving innovations like smart contracts, digital assets, DeFi, and NFTs[3] - The relationship between consortium and public blockchains is evolving from competition to collaboration, creating a more resilient and diverse blockchain infrastructure[3] Group 2: Technical Features - Consortium blockchains are maintained by multiple institutions with authorized nodes, typically using high-performance consensus mechanisms like PBFT and Ripple[4] - Public blockchains face structural challenges such as performance bottlenecks, high transaction costs, and insufficient privacy protection[6] - Layer 2 solutions, like Rollup, enhance public blockchain performance by processing transactions off-chain and submitting results on-chain, significantly improving efficiency and reducing costs[10] Group 3: Future Directions - A hybrid chain architecture is proposed, where consortium blockchains handle sensitive data while public blockchains manage proof and value circulation, ensuring both privacy and openness[12] - The trend towards "chain selection" indicates that future blockchain infrastructures will be diverse and modular, allowing for tailored solutions based on business needs[12] - Governance issues are becoming increasingly important as blockchain technology integrates into core sectors like finance and government, with consortium blockchains more easily meeting regulatory requirements[15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HK$46.40, revised from the previous target price of HK$42.17 [3][8]. Core Insights - The company's revenue from robotics and other LiDAR products has shown strong growth, while revenue from ADAS applications has seen moderate growth. The revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to RMB 24.46 billion (-6.8%), RMB 37.56 billion (+2.4%), and RMB 52.27 billion (+5.2%) respectively [8][10]. - The company expects adjusted net profit to turn positive in Q4 2025, with the valuation method now based on 2026 multiples to better capture growth in the rapidly developing robotics sector [8][10]. - The robotics and other business revenue has tripled year-on-year, driven by breakthroughs in various markets including lawn mowing robots, unmanned delivery, and humanoid robots [8][10]. Financial Performance Summary - For the year ending December 31, 2023, the company reported total revenue of RMB 1,120 million, with a net loss of RMB 4,337 million. The EPS was reported at RMB -44.670 [7][13]. - The revenue for 2024 is projected to be RMB 1,649 million, with a reduced net loss of RMB 482 million and an EPS of RMB -1.109 [7][10]. - By 2025, revenue is expected to increase to RMB 2,446 million, with a further reduced net loss of RMB 160 million and an EPS of RMB -0.394 [7][10]. - The gross margin is projected to improve from 8.4% in 2023 to 26.7% in 2025, indicating a positive trend in profitability [14][15]. Market Position and Competitiveness - The company has established partnerships with leading manufacturers in the lawn mower market, achieving order volumes in the seven figures. Collaborations in the unmanned delivery sector include major platforms such as Meituan and COCO Robotics [8][10]. - The average selling price for ADAS LiDAR products has decreased by 14.4% year-on-year, while the gross margin for this segment has increased by 4.4 percentage points to 19.4% [8][10]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the growing demand in the robotics sector, supported by its strong partnerships and innovative product offerings [8][10].

Economic Context - At the 2025 Jackson Hole meeting, Fed Chair Powell hinted at a potential shift towards easing monetary policy, with a 25 basis point rate cut in September seen as almost certain by the market[4] - The U.S. economy is facing dual challenges: inflation pressures rising due to tariff increases and a weak labor market with synchronized supply and demand softening[4] Inflation and Employment - Core PCE inflation has risen to 2.9%, above last year's level, with significant increases in commodity prices[4] - Despite a low unemployment rate of 4.2%, non-farm employment growth has sharply slowed, indicating increasing risks to job stability[6] Policy Framework Changes - Powell announced the abandonment of the "compensatory" average inflation targeting introduced in 2020, reverting to a more traditional flexible inflation target[7] - This adjustment reflects a recognition that intentional mild inflation overshooting is not suitable in the current economic context, especially amid severe and persistent inflation shocks[7] Market Reactions - Market expectations for a September rate cut have surged, with over 85% probability indicated in federal funds futures[7] - If the Fed opts for more aggressive easing, such as a 50 basis point cut or a series of cuts, it could lead to significant impacts on risk assets, particularly in the tech sector and emerging markets[8] Dollar and Risk Assets - The dollar faces structural pressures, potentially weakening further if the Fed accelerates rate cuts, which could increase commodity prices and affect capital flows to emerging markets[8] - The stock market may experience a revaluation, with increased risk appetite and capital inflows into high beta assets like tech stocks[8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for VSTECS (00856 HK) with a target price of HK$14.00, revised from the previous target price of HK$8.18 [1]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated strong performance in the first half of 2025, with earnings per share exceeding expectations by 3.7%. Revenue growth was particularly robust in the cloud computing segment, which saw a year-on-year increase of 67.9%, surpassing expectations by 8.2% [5]. - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 has been revised upwards to HK$14.03 billion (+16.0%), HK$16.28 billion (+19.2%), and HK$20.36 billion, respectively. The current target price corresponds to a price-to-book ratio of 2.0 times and a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.9 times for 2025 [5][6]. - The company has secured several significant projects in the cloud computing space and maintains strong relationships with domestic chip design companies, positioning it well for future growth [5]. Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023, VSTECS reported total revenue of HK$73.891 billion and a net profit of HK$922 million, with an earnings per share (EPS) of HK$0.656 [4]. - The projected revenue for 2025 is HK$103.922 billion, with a net profit forecast of HK$1.403 billion and an EPS of HK$1.009, reflecting a growth of 33.3% in EPS compared to 2024 [4][7]. - The company’s cloud computing revenue for the first half of 2025 was HK$2.620 billion, marking a significant increase of 67.9% year-on-year [6]. Segment Performance - The cloud computing segment is expected to grow significantly, with projected revenues of HK$5.477 billion in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 39.2% [9]. - The Southeast Asia expansion has also been fruitful, with revenues reaching HK$16.735 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22.5%, driven by strong growth in markets like Thailand and the Philippines [5][6]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates that VSTECS is currently trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.2 for 2024 and is expected to decrease to 11.4 by 2025, suggesting an attractive valuation relative to its growth prospects [10]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 11.6% in 2023 to 17.7% by 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [14].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of Haitian International to "Buy" with a target price of HK$26.00, revised from HK$25.12 [1]. Core Insights - Haitian International reported strong mid-year performance with overseas sales growth exceeding expectations, while domestic sales remained stable. The shift of supply chains from mainland China to Southeast Asia is driving overseas sales growth, which is expected to continue for the remainder of the year. This trend may offset weak domestic sales [1]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to RMB 17,949 million (+1.2%), RMB 17,711 million (+0.1%), and RMB 20,309 million (+1.0%) respectively. Expected earnings per share for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 2.127 (+2.6%), RMB 2.032 (+1.4%), and RMB 2.301 (+1.7%) respectively [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, revenue reached RMB 90.18 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.2%. The sales structure saw slight changes, with the Jupiter series showing a quarter-on-quarter growth [1]. - The overseas sales amounted to RMB 38.18 billion, a year-on-year increase of 34.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20%. Notably, revenue from Southeast Asia grew significantly, reaching RMB 17.83 billion, a year-on-year increase of 90.0% [1]. - Domestic sales remained stable at RMB 52.01 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 0.3% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 5.5% [1]. Financial Projections - The report provides detailed financial projections, including total revenue, net profit, and earnings per share for the years 2023 to 2027. For instance, the projected net profit for 2025 is RMB 3,395 million, with an EPS of RMB 2.127 [2][15]. - The gross margin is expected to be around 32.9% in 2025, with operating profit margin and net margin projected at 21.9% and 18.9% respectively [16]. Market Position - Haitian International's market capitalization is approximately HK$34,442 million, with a share price of HK$21.580. The company holds a significant position in the injection molding machine market, contributing to its robust overseas sales performance [1][2].