5月金融数据点评：社融边际回暖，信贷“挤水分”后或将逐步迎来改善

Group 1: Social Financing and Credit Trends - In May, new social financing amounted to 2.07 trillion RMB, an increase of 513.2 billion RMB year-on-year, with the stock growth rate rising by 0.1 percentage points to 8.4%[38] - The new RMB loans in May were 815.7 billion RMB, a decrease of 406.2 billion RMB year-on-year, indicating weak effective demand for credit[56] - Corporate short-term and medium-long term loans totaled 380 billion RMB in May, with year-on-year decreases of 155 billion RMB and 268 billion RMB respectively[39] Group 2: Monetary Supply and Deposit Trends - M1 growth rate fell by 2.8 percentage points to -4.2% in May, while M2 growth rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 7.0%[45] - The total new RMB deposits decreased by 306.4 billion RMB year-on-year, with household and corporate deposits declining by 116.4 billion RMB and 660.7 billion RMB respectively[45] - Non-bank deposits increased by 837.9 billion RMB, and fiscal deposits rose by 526.4 billion RMB, indicating a shift towards wealth management products[45] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Risks - The economic recovery is at risk of falling short of expectations, particularly in the real estate sector, which may face increased risks[46] - The issuance of government bonds is expected to provide ongoing support for social financing in the second and third quarters[40] - The marginal effects of policies aimed at "squeezing water" from financial data may gradually weaken over time, but the pace of this change remains uncertain[40]