证券研究报告 宏观经济点评 2026 年 01 月 21 日 12 月经济数据点评：稳中提质在路上 [Table_Author] 魏争 分析师 沈夏宜 分析师 证书:S1320524100001 证书:S1320523020004 Email:weizheng@lczq.com Email:shenxiayi@lczq.com 摘要： 经济增长目标如期实现，增长动能向第三产业集中。四季度实际 GDP 同 比增长 4.5%，全年增速 5.0%，顺利完成年度目标；名义 GDP 同比增长 3.8%，全年累计增速 4.0%，GDP 平减指数为-1.0%，较此前略有收窄。 支出法角度看，GDP 增速逐季放缓，主要源于下半年消费和投资回落导 致需求端承压。生产法角度看，第二产业对 GDP 的拉动持续减弱，四季 度同比增长 3.4%，全年增速 4.5%，对 GDP 的贡献率逐季下降，其中， 建筑业延续下行。相比之下，第三产业成为经济增长的主要支撑，四季度 同比增长 5.2%，全年增长 5.4%，对 GDP 的贡献率逐季抬升，信息传 输、软件和信息技术服务业及租赁和商务服务业保持较快增长。 固定资产投资整体走弱，基建与制造业 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [6] Core Insights - The EMB (Electro-Mechanical Brake) system is identified as a key foundation for developing intelligent chassis and achieving active safety in vehicles, with mass production expected to begin in 2026 [1][3] - The EMB system features a decoupled hardware and software architecture, eliminating components like the iBooster and hydraulic lines, allowing for direct control of braking force at the wheel hub, which meets the rapid and precise braking demands of Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) [3][4] - The domestic EMB market is projected to grow at a CAGR of over 70% from 2026 to 2030, with an expected market size exceeding 11.5 billion yuan by 2030 [4][48] Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Brake Technology Development - Traditional fuel vehicles used vacuum boosters for braking, which are expected to be phased out due to their complexity and slow response times [10] - The transition to electric vehicles has led to the adoption of electric vacuum pumps, but they have not been widely accepted due to issues like noise and short lifespan [11] - In the era of intelligent and connected vehicles, both EHB (Electro-Hydraulic Brake) and EMB systems are expected to develop concurrently, with EMB being more suitable for future intelligent chassis technology [13][14] 2. Introduction to EMB Line Control Braking - EMB achieves soft and hard decoupling by directly controlling the braking force at each wheel through electrical signals, enhancing response time and efficiency [27] - The EMB system includes electronic brake calipers, controllers, and various sensors, making it the control center for multiple safety algorithms [27] - The commercial application of EMB in commercial vehicles is anticipated to be faster than in passenger vehicles due to higher demands for braking performance and safety [37] 3. Market Size and Growth Potential - The EMB market is expected to see significant growth, with projections indicating a market size of over 11.5 billion yuan by 2030, driven by the rapid development of intelligent connected vehicles [48][51] - The report outlines a detailed forecast for EMB penetration rates, estimating a market size of approximately 1.42 billion yuan in 2026, with a projected CAGR of over 70% from 2026 to 2030 [51][52] 4. Participating Companies - Several domestic companies are accelerating their layout in the EMB market, with mass production timelines generally targeting 2025-2026 [52] - Key players include traditional brake system manufacturers like Bosch and Continental, as well as domestic firms such as Berteli and Asia-Pacific Co., which are preparing for mass production [52][54] - Startups like Coordinate Systems and Huasheng Ruili are also making strides, with some already achieving prototype development and testing [53][54]

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rebound of the December PMI data needs further observation. Although the manufacturing PMI has unexpectedly rebounded, there are still potential risks, and policy support is required. The service industry has a slight rebound but remains in the contraction range, while the construction industry has significantly improved due to the release of the effects of stable - growth policies [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Manufacturing Industry - **Overall PMI**: In December, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range after eight months. Policy transmission lag, Spring Festival misalignment, and industry structure optimization are the main reasons for the unexpected rebound, but there are still problems such as the low - prosperity of small enterprises [3]. - **Production**: The December production index was 51.7%, up 1.7 percentage points from the previous value, indicating strong production resilience. The main reason for the sharp rebound is the Spring Festival misalignment, as the Spring Festival in 2026 is later than usual [4]. - **Demand**: The new order index was 50.8%, up 1.6 percentage points from the previous value, indicating a significant overall improvement in demand. The improvement in domestic demand is the core, and external demand maintains resilience. The increase in indices such as procurement volume, on - hand orders, finished - product inventory, and raw - material inventory supports the short - term recovery of demand [5]. - **Prices**: The raw material purchase price was 53.1%, still in the expansion range, and the ex - factory price index rose 0.7 percentage points to 48.9%. The "low - selling - price, high - cost" pattern restricts corporate profit repair and investment expansion willingness [6]. - **Enterprise Structure**: Large - and medium - sized enterprises and small enterprises, as well as high - tech and consumer goods industries and traditional industries, show significant differentiation. Large - scale enterprises support the overall improvement of the manufacturing industry, while small enterprises have a low prosperity level. High - tech manufacturing and consumer goods industries perform well, while some traditional industries face demand contraction pressure [8]. Service Industry - In December, the service industry prosperity index was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, but still in the contraction range for two consecutive months. The demand has increased, and the expectation has improved, but the price is weak. The lack of service repair power mainly comes from the transformation of traditional industries and the continuous adjustment of the real - estate market [9]. Construction Industry - The construction industry prosperity index increased significantly by 3.2 percentage points to 52.8%, mainly due to the lag effect of previous stable - growth policies, the relatively high temperature in southern provinces, and enterprises seizing the construction progress near the two festivals. Structurally, demand has improved at a low level, input prices are expanding, business activity expectations are optimistic, while sales prices and the employee index are weak [10].

Production Side - In December, the operating rates for blast furnaces and electric furnaces were 78.88% and 60.10%, respectively, both lower than the previous month[3] - The rebar operating rate was 38.03%, and the grinding machine operating rate was 31.72%, both showing a decline from last month[3] - The average operating rates for PVC and PTA were 78.73% and 73.75%, respectively, indicating a general decrease in chemical product operating rates[3] - The inventory levels for asphalt, rebar, cold-rolled, hot-rolled, and float glass showed a decrease, with respective month-on-month growth rates of -3.77%, -10.26%, -4.73%, -6.82%[3] Demand Side - The average transaction area for commercial housing in 30 cities increased by 22.48% month-on-month but decreased by 31.93% year-on-year[4] - The average transaction area for land in 100 cities increased by 93.96% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.50%[4] - The average daily sales of passenger cars were 61,883 units, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 20.18% and a year-on-year decline of 26.34%[4] - The average box office revenue for movies was 675 million yuan, down 7.67% month-on-month but up 45.47% year-on-year[4] Price Side - The wholesale price index for agricultural products increased by 3.32% month-on-month and 6.94% year-on-year, with notable increases in vegetable and fruit prices[5] - The price of gasoline and diesel saw year-on-year declines of 6.82% and 5.20%, respectively[6] - The price of copper and aluminum increased by 5.28% and 1.26% month-on-month, with year-on-year increases of 21.31% and 7.28%[6]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - 2025 was a transformative year for the bond market, with yield trends shifting from a unilateral decline to narrow - range fluctuations, trading strategies evolving, market scale expanding, and asset correlations changing [3][15]. - In 2026, China's economy will feature "internal improvement, external stability, and structural optimization", with GDP growth target around 5%. Monetary policy will remain "moderately loose", and fiscal policy will be "actively expansionary" [4][5]. - The bond market in 2026 will see a positive supply trend, with institutional behavior showing "stable but changing allocation and contracting and differentiating trading". The relationship between stocks and bonds will shift from a "see - saw" to a "re - balanced" state [7][8][9]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. 2025 Bond Market Review - **Yield Trend**: Yields shifted from a unilateral decline to narrow - range fluctuations, with a pattern of "rising - falling - rising - fluctuating" for long - term yields and short - term yields anchored around policy rates [15][16]. - **Bond Products**: The bond market became a core financing channel for economic transformation, with a high - stock, fast - expanding, and government - bond - concentrated structure [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: Financial institutions' trading strategies shifted from "trend trading" to a "coupon + band" composite strategy, with commercial banks and insurance institutions as the main holders of interest - rate bonds and brokers and overseas institutions increasing market volatility [23]. - **Asset Linkage**: The traditional linkage between treasury bond yields and traditional assets (A - shares, US stocks, gold) was broken, showing "three reversals" [29]. 2. Fundamentals: Internal Improvement, Gradual Progress - **GDP Growth Target**: In 2025, the GDP growth target of 5% was basically achieved, with a "high - then - low" pattern. In 2026, the target may remain around 5% [37][38]. - **Consumption Growth**: In 2025, consumption momentum slowed and there was a clear trend of consumption downgrade. In 2026, consumption will moderately recover, but factors such as policy support, income, and balance - sheet repair will limit the improvement [41][42]. - **Investment Growth**: In 2025, investment growth turned negative, showing a "high - then - low" trend. In 2026, investment is expected to stop falling and stabilize, with infrastructure and manufacturing investment as the core driving forces, and the decline in real - estate investment will narrow slightly [44][45][47]. - **Export Growth**: In 2025, exports showed strong resilience. In 2026, export growth is expected to remain stable, supported by factors such as diversified trade markets, upgraded export product structures, and enterprise overseas investment [52][53]. - **Price Movement**: In 2025, prices rebounded at a low level. In 2026, CPI will moderately recover, PPI's decline will narrow, and the GDP deflator is expected to gradually recover but may still be in the negative range [59]. 3. Policy Front: Moderately Loose Monetary Policy, Actively Expansionary Fiscal Policy - **Monetary Policy**: In 2025, monetary policy was moderately loose and operation became more refined. In 2026, it will continue the "moderately loose" tone, focusing on precise measures and cross - cycle balance, with policy tools transforming from quantity - based to price - based [62][63]. - **Fiscal Policy**: In 2025, fiscal policy was significantly expansionary, with a higher deficit rate. In 2026, it will continue the "actively expansionary" main line, with characteristics of "stable total growth, optimized structure, and front - loaded rhythm" [68]. 4. Bond Supply: Scale Expansion and Structural Optimization - **2025**: The supply of interest - rate bonds increased significantly, with government bonds leading the expansion and a front - loaded fiscal leverage rhythm [75]. - **2026**: The bond market supply will be positive, featuring "scale expansion, front - loaded rhythm, investment in new areas, and longer terms", with the government bond scale expected to reach a record high [76]. 5. Institutional Behavior: Stable but Changing Allocation, Contracting and Differentiating Trading - **Allocation Disk**: Commercial banks' bond allocation will increase steadily, with a shift towards the medium - and short - term. Insurance institutions' demand for bond allocation may weaken, and there will be a re - balance between stocks and bonds [84][85]. - **Trading Disk**: The trading disk's allocation of interest - rate bonds will contract overall, with internal differentiation and more cautious strategies [86]. 6. Equity Disturbance: From "Strong Stocks, Weak Bonds" to "Stock - Bond Re - balance" - **2025**: The stock - bond relationship was mainly "strong stocks, weak bonds", with the strength of the equity market suppressing the bond market [95]. - **2026**: The equity market is likely to continue to recover, and the stock - bond relationship will shift from a "see - saw" to a "re - balanced" state, with the squeezing effect on the bond market weakening [99]. 7. Capital Price: Continued Loose Capital, Marginally Increased Volatility - **2025**: Capital prices showed a downward trend with converging volatility, with the central bank guiding the centralization of capital prices and suppressing short - term fluctuations [102]. - **2026**: Capital prices are expected to show a double - feature of "systematically downward centralization and magnified periodic volatility", with the central bank relying on multiple tools to maintain stability [103]. 8. Outlook for Major Asset Trends - **Treasury Bonds**: Yields may show a "quasi - inverted V" pattern, with an expected range of 1.6% - 1.9% for the 10 - year treasury bond yield [109][111]. - **A - shares**: The equity market is likely to show a pattern of "shock - strengthening and structural differentiation", focusing on new - quality productivity [112]. - **US Stocks**: US stocks will continue to rise with technology leading, but the upward slope may slow down, and there is a risk of valuation bubbles [113]. - **US Bonds**: US bond yields will show a downward - centralization and steepening curve, but supply pressure and inflation resilience will limit the downward space [114]. - **Gold**: Gold prices will likely remain high, fluctuating upwards, but the upward momentum may slow down [115].

Group 1: Overall Industry Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry is experiencing a significant transformation due to geopolitical shifts and economic changes, leading to a re-evaluation of resource values and pricing mechanisms [18][24][25] - The year 2025 marked a historic bull market for precious metals, particularly gold and silver, which redefined their financial and hedging attributes [18][27] - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown remarkable performance, with the Shenwan Non-ferrous Metals Index achieving an annual increase of 87.05%, outperforming major market indices [20] Group 2: Gold Market Analysis - The long-term bullish logic supporting gold remains intact, with expectations for a structured upward trend in gold prices through 2026, driven by a weakening US dollar and rising debt risks [3][34] - The anticipated transition in US Federal Reserve leadership is expected to create short-term trading opportunities around gold prices, influenced by market uncertainties [4][34] - The demand for gold from central banks is expected to slow down, impacting the overall market dynamics for gold in the near term [3][34] Group 3: Copper Market Dynamics - The copper supply is entering a long-term structural bottleneck, with a significant decrease in new mine production expected by 2026, enhancing the bargaining power of core mines [5][9] - The smelting sector is facing a "zero processing fee" era, leading to accelerated industry consolidation as high-cost smelting enterprises exit the market [9][10] - The fundamental support for copper prices is strong, with an expected widening supply-demand gap in 2026, indicating a trend of rising prices [9][10] Group 4: Aluminum Market Trends - The aluminum industry is witnessing a shift in value dynamics, with a focus on structural premiums due to increased reliance on imported resources [10][11] - The market for alumina is expected to face challenges due to oversupply and pressure on profitability, while the electrolytic aluminum sector is poised for growth driven by energy value [10][11] - The profitability within the aluminum industry is anticipated to concentrate further towards the downstream smelting segment, presenting investment opportunities [10][11] Group 5: Lithium Market Outlook - The lithium market is projected to experience a dual increase in supply and demand in 2026, although there are risks of mismatched release rhythms [11][12] - The recovery in lithium prices is expected to be supported by a rebound in demand from the energy storage sector, despite uncertainties in the electric vehicle market [11][13] - Investors are advised to monitor the construction and installation pace of domestic energy storage projects to better capture investment opportunities in the lithium sector [11][13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints As of now, the growth rate of fiscal revenue and expenditure is running weakly. Compared with the budget target at the beginning of the year, it shows the characteristics of "slightly exceeding the revenue target, lagging expenditure progress, and expanding revenue - expenditure gap of government - managed funds". Although the general public budget revenue has exceeded the target, the lagging expenditure progress leads to low efficiency of fiscal funds use. The expanding revenue - expenditure gap of government - managed funds reflects the fragility of land finance. In the future, under the tight fiscal balance, both the revenue and expenditure sides face multiple pressures. In the short term, the focus is on the efficiency of fund implementation. Incremental policies around accelerating fund allocation and promoting the formation of physical workload are expected, which will strongly support fiscal expenditure and economic recovery in the first quarter across the year [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fiscal Revenue - The growth rate of fiscal revenue has been running at a low level and slightly exceeded the growth target at the beginning of the year. From January to November, the growth rate of general public budget revenue was 0.8%, 0.1% higher than the predetermined target. The overall revenue growth continued the low - level operation trend. Structurally, the differentiation between central and local revenues increased, with the decline of central revenue expanding and the growth rate of local revenue improving slightly, providing some support for the overall revenue. In terms of rhythm, the completion progress of fiscal revenue was 91.2%, slightly lower than the historical average (91.7%) but slightly higher than the same period in 2024 (90.5%). Overall, fiscal revenue maintained a steady recovery trend, but the progress was slightly behind expectations, mainly affected by factors such as insufficient economic recovery resilience, tax structure differentiation, and weakening non - tax revenue support [2]. - The growth rate of tax revenue continued to improve, while the decline of non - tax revenue expanded, showing obvious structural differentiation. The growth rate of tax revenue increased by 0.1 percentage points to 1.8%, indicating enhanced tax source resilience. Non - tax revenue had negative growth for 7 consecutive months, and the decline further expanded, dragging down the overall fiscal revenue growth rate. Among major taxes, the growth rates of domestic VAT and corporate income tax declined marginally, which was consistent with weak domestic demand and enterprise profit pressure; personal income tax remained the same as the previous value, indicating limited improvement in residents' income; consumption tax increased slightly, showing certain consumption resilience. The shock - strengthening of the equity index drove the stamp duty to maintain a relatively high growth rate. Among foreign - trade - related taxes, the decline of export tax rebates expanded, and the increase of tariffs narrowed, indicating pressure on exports. The decline of vehicle purchase tax expanded, reflecting the weakening of automobile consumption. The growth rates of land value - added tax and deed tax were continuously in the negative growth range, indicating that real - estate transactions and investments were still in the bottom - exploring stage [3]. Fiscal Expenditure - The growth rate of fiscal expenditure declined continuously, and the pressure on local expenditure was significant. From January to November, the growth rate of fiscal expenditure was 1.4%, with a decline of 0.6 percentage points, significantly lower than the predetermined target of 4.4% at the beginning of the year. In terms of central and local levels, the growth rate of central expenditure decreased slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 6.2%, with a continuous decline for 6 months; the growth rate of local expenditure decreased to 0.6%, the lowest in the year, reflecting a significant increase in local fiscal expenditure constraints. The decline in local expenditure was related to the high base last year on the one hand, and reflected the characteristics of marginal weakening in the second half of the year due to the front - loaded fiscal efforts on the other hand [4]. - In terms of expenditure structure, the decline of infrastructure - related expenditure expanded, and the growth rate of livelihood expenditure slowed down from a high level. The growth rates of expenditure on agriculture, forestry, and water affairs and urban and rural community affairs both declined and reached the lowest in the year, dragging down the infrastructure investment growth rate. The obvious contraction of infrastructure expenditure might be related to insufficient connection of new project reserves and more funds being used for debt resolution. In terms of livelihood expenditure, the growth rate of social security and employment expenditure slowed down for 3 consecutive months but still remained at a relatively high level; the growth rate of education expenditure slowed down marginally for 8 consecutive months, indicating that the fiscal expenditure structure was gradually transitioning from bottom - supporting expansion to constraint balance [4]. Government - Managed Funds - The revenue and expenditure of government - managed funds were under pressure, and there was a disconnection between the issuance and use of special bonds. The decline of land transfer revenue continued to expand, dragging down the growth rate of government - managed funds revenue from - 2.8% to - 4.9% (the predetermined target was 0.7%). The growth rate of government - managed funds expenditure decreased marginally to - 15.4% (the predetermined target was 23.1%), and the growth rate slowed down for 4 consecutive months. The growth rates of government - managed funds revenue and expenditure were significantly lower than the targets at the beginning of the year by 0.7% and 23.1% respectively. The lagging expenditure progress was mainly due to the mismatch between the issuance of special bonds by local governments and project implementation. Although the issuance progress of local government special bonds reached 101.6% and the progress of new special bonds was 97% (the historical average was 95.3%), the insufficient land revenue restricted the local supporting fund expenditure ability. Coupled with the fact that some projects were not ready for timely construction, the fund expenditure progress was lagging [5].

Inflation Data Summary - The U.S. November CPI year-on-year growth is 2.7%, lower than the expected 3.1%[1] - The month-on-month growth from September to November is 0.2%, down from the previous value of 0.3%[1] - Core CPI year-on-year is 2.6%, below the expected 3.0% and the previous value of 3.0%[1] Price Trends - Non-core prices, including gasoline and food, showed a downward trend, with food prices year-on-year at 2.6%, down from 3.1%[2] - Energy prices year-on-year increased to 4.2%, primarily due to higher fuel (11.3%) and electricity (6.9%) prices[2] - Core goods prices year-on-year are at 1.4%, slightly down from 1.5%[2] Data Reliability Concerns - The reliability of the November CPI data is questioned due to the lack of October data collection caused by the government shutdown[3] - The absence of October data may lead to an underestimation of the CPI, particularly in housing, which has a significant weight in the overall CPI calculation[3] Market Reactions and Future Expectations - Following the CPI release, the market slightly increased expectations for a rate cut in March 2026 to 56.8%[5] - The overall sentiment remains cautious due to concerns over the quality of the CPI data, despite the lower-than-expected inflation figures[5] - If inflation in Q1 2026 remains below expectations and the job market does not improve significantly, the Federal Reserve may cut rates once in the first half of the year and approximately twice throughout the year[5]

Production - In November, industrial added value increased by 4.8% year-on-year, with a month-on-month growth of 0.4%, indicating resilience in industrial operations[1] - The service production index grew by 4.2% year-on-year, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[1] Investment - Fixed asset investment in November saw a month-on-month decline of 12.0%, with a cumulative growth rate dropping to -2.6%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month[2] - Infrastructure investment showed a cumulative growth rate of 0.1% for broad infrastructure and -1.1% for narrow infrastructure, both continuing to decline[2] - Real estate investment fell by 15.9% cumulatively, with funding and sales also showing significant declines, indicating ongoing instability in housing prices[2] Consumption - Social retail sales grew by 1.3% year-on-year in November, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to high base effects from last year[3] - Restaurant consumption showed relative resilience with a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, while retail sales of goods increased by only 1.0%, reflecting a notable slowdown[3] Policy Outlook - The necessity for policy support has increased due to continued weak demand, with the December Central Economic Work Conference emphasizing the need for proactive fiscal measures and enhancing macroeconomic governance[5] - The policy toolbox remains ample, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply[5]

Employment Data Summary - In November, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 64,000, slightly above the expected 50,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, higher than the anticipated 4.5%[1] - The October non-farm payrolls were revised to a decrease of 105,000 due to significant federal government employee losses during the government shutdown[1] - The September non-farm payrolls were also revised down from 119,000 to 108,000[1] Sector Performance - In November, the goods-producing sector added 19,000 jobs, with construction contributing 28,000 jobs, indicating a recovery in the housing cycle[2] - The service sector added 50,000 jobs, down from 61,000 in the previous month, with notable declines in transportation, warehousing, and leisure and hospitality sectors[2] - Government employment continued to decline, with a loss of 5,000 jobs in November following a loss of 157,000 in October[2] Economic Impact of Government Shutdown - The October government shutdown had broader impacts beyond government employment, affecting private sector job growth, which fell from 104,000 in September to 52,000 in October[3] - Retail sales in October showed no growth, indicating a temporary contraction in overall economic demand due to the shutdown[3] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate increased to 62.5% in November, up from 62.4% in October, driven by a rise in employment among the 16-24 age group[4] - Job vacancy rates remained stable at 4.6%, suggesting a slight easing in recruitment demand[4] Unemployment Trends - The U6 unemployment rate rose significantly to 8.7% from 8.0% in September, with part-time employment due to economic reasons increasing to 7.831 million[5] - Initial claims for unemployment benefits rose to 236,000, indicating a potential increase in unemployment risks[5] Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Following the employment data release, market expectations for interest rate cuts in 2026 increased slightly, with the average expected cut rising from 55.4 basis points to 59.3 basis points[6] - The likelihood of a rate cut in March 2026 rose from 49.5% to 53.2%, reflecting growing confidence in potential monetary easing[6]