证券研究报告 行业研究｜电子 2025 年 09 月 02 日 电子："人工智能+"政策解读，新质生产力发展 路径清晰 [Table_Author] 王竞萱 分析师 Email:wangjingxuan1@lczq.com 证书:S1320525020001 投资要点： 2025 年 8 月 26 日，国务院印发《国务院关于深入实施"人工智能+"行 动的意见》（下称《意见》），明确指出实施"人工智能+"行动的总体要求 和重点方向。其核心意义在于推动中国数字经济从连接赋能向智能驱动实 现质的跃升，此次《意见》的提出更加明确了人工智能作为新质生产力的 核心引擎作用，擘画了国家生产力范式重构的具体举措。 《意见》提出了 2027/2030/2035 三阶段发展目标，形成了清晰化的发展 路径，高度契合全球环境与国家需要。从阶段目标规划来看此次《意见》 战略地位极高，既是承接"十四五"规划和人工智能发展规划，又符合社 会主义现代化建设要求和数字中国建设愿景。 《意见》中提出了要加快实施的六方面重点行动，主要指向人工智能应用 领域，提出了促进生产力革命性跃迁和生产关系深层次变革的具体举措。 涵盖 to B/to C/to ...

Group 1: Fiscal Revenue Insights - The growth rate of general public budget revenue turned positive, with a year-on-year increase of 0.1% from January to July, ending the negative growth trend observed earlier in the year[4] - In July, the monthly growth rate reached 2.6%, the highest for the year, with both central and local revenue growth hitting new highs[4] - Major tax categories, including corporate income tax, domestic value-added tax, personal income tax, and consumption tax, contributed 94% to the revenue growth, indicating a structural improvement in revenue sources[4][25] Group 2: Fiscal Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure grew by 3.4% year-on-year from January to July, maintaining stability but showing significant divergence between central and local expenditures[5] - Central expenditure increased by 8.8%, while local expenditure growth fell to 2.5%, the lowest for the year, reflecting challenges in local fiscal management[5] - Social security and health expenditures showed strong growth, with social security spending increasing by 9.8% and health spending by 5.3%, while infrastructure-related expenditures remained weak[38] Group 3: Government Fund Performance - Government fund revenue saw a year-on-year decline of 0.7%, but the rate of decline improved, primarily due to better land transfer income[5] - Land transfer income decreased by 4.6%, indicating ongoing weakness in the real estate market, while government fund expenditure surged by 31.7%[5] - The issuance of special bonds by local governments accelerated, with completion rates reaching 63.1% of the annual quota, a 14 percentage point increase from previous values[5] Group 4: Policy Outlook and Risks - Future fiscal policies will focus on accelerating existing policies and enhancing new tools to stimulate economic growth, as indicated by recent government meetings[6] - Despite improvements in fiscal revenue and expenditure structures, challenges remain, particularly in meeting budget completion rates and addressing weaknesses in real estate-related tax revenues[6][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (downgraded) [5] Core Views - The company reported strong revenue and net profit growth in the first half of 2025, achieving operating income of 9.246 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.14%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.596 billion yuan, up 48.43% year-on-year, marking a historical high for the half-year performance [3][13] - The company is focusing on resource expansion through both internal exploration and acquisitions, with significant progress in geological exploration leading to an increase of 3.85 tons of gold metal [31][34] - The company is accelerating its international capital layout by preparing for an overseas share issuance and listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which is expected to enhance its overseas business development and optimize its capital structure [4][36] Summary by Sections Overview - The company’s performance in the first half of 2025 was driven by rising gold prices, with a significant increase in both revenue and net profit [3][13] - The second quarter of 2025 saw operating income of 4.924 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13.96% and a year-on-year increase of 31.95% [13] Resource Expansion and Projects - The company is actively increasing its gold reserves through exploration and acquisitions, with notable results from the Heihe and Qinghai mining areas [31][34] - The company acquired a 52% stake in Yunnan Western Mining, enhancing its exploration rights in the region, which is expected to boost its gold reserves [34] - The construction of overseas projects is set to begin in the fourth quarter of 2025, with completion expected by mid-2027 [36] Industry Outlook - The company is optimistic about the gold price trends in the fourth quarter of 2025, with expectations of continued upward movement due to easing monetary policies and geopolitical factors [38][44] - The gold market has shown strong performance in the first half of 2025, with gold prices reaching historical highs [38] Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 18.021 billion yuan, 19.898 billion yuan, and 22.680 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to reach 3.431 billion yuan, 4.307 billion yuan, and 5.599 billion yuan [47] - The current market valuation corresponds to a PE ratio of 14.62, 11.64, and 8.96 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, supporting the "Accumulate" rating [47][49]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, bond yields may fluctuate downward. Although government bond issuance brings certain net - increase pressure, the certainty of the downward trend of capital prices is relatively high due to the marginal decline of the central bank's open - market maturity scale and the gradual subsidence of tax - period disturbances. In the long term, the bond yield is still in a downward trend under the background of weak fundamentals [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Bond Market Performance Last Week - Bond yields generally increased, the term spread widened, and the curve became steeper. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose 6BP to 1.7465%, the short - term interest rate rose slightly, and the term spread increased by 4BP. Bank - to - bank pledged repo rates and financial institution pledged repo rates both increased. The liquidity of the banking system remained reasonably abundant, and the R007 - DR007 spread narrowed, but the stratification between non - bank institutions and banks still existed [3]. Factors Driving Bond Yield Increases - The increase in market risk preference, tax - period disturbances, and the substantial increase in government bond supply jointly pushed up bond yields. The stock - bond seesaw effect, with the steady rise of the equity index, suppressed the bond market. The tax - period on the 15th led to a convergence of the money market and a significant increase in capital prices. The net increase in government bond issuance also contributed to the rise in bond yields [4]. Policy - related Influences - Policies on preventing capital idling and fiscal discount loans indicate that the pace of comprehensive interest rate cuts may slow down. The central bank's second - quarter monetary policy report emphasizes preventing capital idling, suggesting a possible delay in the pace of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts. The fiscal discount policy for personal consumption and business loans strengthens the signal of a slowdown in the pace of comprehensive interest rate cuts [5]. Fundamental Situation - Economic data generally declined, and loans in the real - sector weakened, reflecting the weak economic operation. In July, economic and financial data showed that the contradiction of "weak demand + resilient supply + low prices" continued. Industrial added - value growth slightly decreased, overall investment growth was dragged down by real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing, consumption momentum slightly slowed down, and financing in the resident and enterprise sectors was weak [6][7]. Capital - related Situation - This week, liquidity continued to be relatively loose. The maturity scale of the central bank's reverse repurchase decreased significantly, which will relieve capital pressure. The tax - period disturbances are gradually subsiding, and capital prices may decline [7]. Supply - side Situation - This week, local government bond issuance increased, and government bond issuance maintained a net - increase trend. It is expected that the central bank will adjust capital injection to maintain liquidity. The net increase in local government bond issuance this week was 2366 billion yuan compared with last week, and the net increase in Treasury bond issuance also increased by about 1000 billion yuan compared with last week. The scale of government bond payments decreased marginally compared with last week [8].

Group 1: Export Performance - July export growth was 7.2%, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, exceeding the Wind consensus expectation of 5.8%[5] - Exports to the US decreased by 21.7%, a decline that expanded by 5.5 percentage points from the previous month[6] - Exports to the EU increased by 9.2%, with exports to Germany rising significantly by 13.1%[6] Group 2: Regional Export Trends - Exports to ASEAN maintained resilience with a growth rate of 16.6%[6] - Exports to Latin America rebounded with a growth rate of 7.7%[6] - Exports to Canada accelerated with a growth rate of 6.7%[6] Group 3: Product Category Insights - Labor-intensive product exports saw a decline, with bag exports at -10.0% and clothing at -0.6%[7] - Mechanical and electrical products supported export growth, with a growth rate of 8.0%, contributing 4.8 percentage points to overall export growth[7] - High-tech product exports grew by 4.2%, contributing 1.1 percentage points to export growth[7] Group 4: Import Trends - July imports increased by 4.1%, a significant rise of 3.0 percentage points from the previous month[8] - Energy product imports showed structural improvement, with copper ore imports up by 26.4%[8] - Agricultural product imports continued to recover, with a growth rate of 5.1%, up 3.2 percentage points from the previous month[8] Group 5: Future Export Pressures - Export pressures are expected to increase due to potential impacts from new tariffs imposed by the US, ranging from 10% to 41%[10] - The "rush to export" effect may manifest more significantly in Q4, compounded by base pressure, leading to further downward pressure on export growth[10]

Employment Data - In July, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 73,000, significantly below the expected 106,000 and the previous value of 14,000[3] - The unemployment rate slightly rose to 4.2%, with the previous value at 4.1% and the forecast at 4.3%[3] - The Labor Department revised the non-farm employment data for May and June, with May's initial value of 139,000 adjusted down to 19,000 and June's from 147,000 to 14,000, totaling a downward revision of 253,000[3] Labor Market Trends - The average monthly job growth over the past three months is now only 35,000, a sharp decline from the first quarter's average of 111,000, indicating a potential overestimation of previous employment strength[3] - The labor force participation rate decreased to 62.2%, contributing to the stability of the unemployment rate despite job losses[10] - The number of foreign-born workers decreased by 1.241 million from January to July, while the domestic-born workforce increased by 3.073 million, affecting overall labor supply[12] Market Reactions and Federal Reserve Implications - Following the employment data release, U.S. stock markets fell, bond yields declined, and the dollar weakened, reflecting heightened market risk aversion[5] - The disappointing employment figures have led to increased market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September and October[5] - Key factors for the Fed's decision will include inflation data for July and August and the potential impact of political pressures from the Trump administration[15]

Production Side - As of the fourth week of July, the blast furnace operating rate was 83.48%, stable compared to the previous period and above last year's average[19] - The rebar operating rate increased to 43.95%, up 2.38 percentage points from the previous period, exceeding last year's average[19] - The cement mill operating rate recorded 36.95%, a slight decrease compared to the previous period[19] - The asphalt inventory saw a significant decline, indicating an acceleration in physical work volume in the infrastructure sector[7] Demand Side - In July, the real estate market remained weak, with the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities down by 27.43% month-on-month and 11.26% year-on-year[7] - The average daily sales of passenger cars were 53,006.50 units, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 21.88%[8] - The total box office revenue for movies was 84,200.00 million yuan, showing a month-on-month increase of 99.53% but a year-on-year decline of 14.85%[8] Trade and Prices - The CCFI (China Containerized Freight Index) rose to 1,305.40, with a month-on-month growth of 2.19%[9] - The SCFI (Shanghai Containerized Freight Index) decreased to 1,684.07, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 16.42%[9] - The CPI showed a mild increase in consumer prices, while industrial product prices fluctuated, with PPI pressures from weak energy prices[9]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The economic situation judgment is optimistically cautious, with the macro - policy emphasizing continuity and stability, and leaving room for policy adjustment. The "15th Five - Year Plan" is set to play a crucial role in China's modernization process [7]. - Monetary policy remains moderately loose, with a possibility of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. Structural tools are emphasized for targeted support [8]. - Fiscal policy is more proactive, with accelerated implementation of existing policies and potential new policies in consumption, technology, and foreign trade [14]. - The mid - term bond market yield is expected to continue its downward trend despite recent upward fluctuations [18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Economic Situation and "15th Five - Year Plan" - The current macro - economy is stable with progress but still faces challenges. Macro - policies aim to maintain the upward trend, with a focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations [7]. - The "15th Five - Year Plan" is a key stage for China's modernization, with a dual mission of connecting the "14th Five - Year Plan" and the 2035 vision [7]. 3.2 Monetary Policy - The moderate - loose tone of monetary policy remains unchanged. The focus shifts to the priority of structural tools over aggregate ones, with an emphasis on guiding funds to the real economy [8]. - There is a possibility of interest rate cuts in the second half of the year due to factors such as the differentiated structural economic recovery, expected Fed rate cuts, and historical rate - cut rhythms [10][12]. 3.3 Fiscal Policy - Fiscal policy remains proactive, with a focus on accelerating the issuance and use of government bonds and ensuring the bottom - line of "Three Guarantees" at the grassroots level [14]. - In the second half of the year, the implementation of existing fiscal policies will accelerate, and new policies may be introduced to support consumption, technology, and foreign trade [17]. 3.4 Bond Market - The recent rise in bond yields is due to the resonance of economic fundamentals, policy, and capital factors. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose from about 1.65% to 1.75% in mid - to late July [18]. - Considering the policy's emphasis on continuity and stability and the economic weak - recovery reality, the mid - term bond yield is expected to continue its downward trend [18][19].

Production Insights - As of the fourth week of July, the national blast furnace operating rate was 83.48%, stable compared to the previous period and above last year's average[11] - The rebar operating rate increased to 43.95%, up by 2.38 percentage points from the previous period, also above last year's average[11] - The cement mill operating rate recorded 36.95%, showing a slight decline compared to the previous period[3] Inventory and Capacity Utilization - As of the fourth week of July, rebar inventory decreased by 4.29% compared to the previous period, indicating a reduction in stock levels[27] - The capacity utilization rate for electric furnaces was 53.48%, up by 2.51 percentage points from the previous month, slightly above last year's average[46] - Cement clinker capacity utilization was 58.10%, down by 0.45 percentage points from the previous month, below last year's average[46] Demand Trends - In July, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 cities decreased by 27.43% month-on-month and 11.26% year-on-year[4] - The average daily sales of passenger cars were 53,006.50 units, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 21.88%[4] - The volume of postal express collection was 3.704 billion pieces, down by 5.29% month-on-month but up by 15.14% year-on-year[4] Price Movements - The average price of cement was 338.17 yuan/ton, down by 0.33% month-on-month, below last year's average[67] - The price of rebar increased by 4.14% month-on-month to 3,310.40 yuan/ton, still below last year's average[68] - The price of asphalt rose by 0.40% month-on-month to 3,823.00 yuan/ton, above last year's average[69]

Economic Overview - The actual GDP growth rate for the US in Q2 was 3%, exceeding expectations of 2.6% and the previous value of -0.5%[3] - The contribution of net exports to GDP shifted from a drag of -4.61% in Q1 to a boost of 4.99% in Q2[3] - Inventory contributions turned negative at -3.17% in Q2, compared to a positive contribution of 2.59% in Q1[3] Consumption Insights - Consumer spending showed a mild recovery with a year-on-year growth of 1.4%, up from 0.5% in the previous quarter[4] - Durable goods consumption improved from -0.28% to 0.27%, while service consumption rose from 0.30% to 0.53%[4] - Non-durable goods consumption declined, contributing 0.18% compared to 0.29% in Q1, reflecting the impact of tariff policies[4] Investment Trends - Private investment decreased significantly, with an overall growth rate of -3.09% in Q2, down from 3.9% in Q1[4] - Equipment investment's contribution to GDP fell from 1.11% to 0.26%, despite knowledge-based investments maintaining growth[4] - Residential and construction investments continued to face pressure in a high-interest-rate environment, with contributions declining further[4] Trade and Inventory Dynamics - Imports decreased by 30.3% in Q2, a smaller decline than the previous quarter's increase of 37.9%[5] - Exports turned negative at -1.8% due to the impact of tariffs, indicating a shift in trade dynamics[5] - Inventory consumption in Q2 was greater than the accumulation in Q1, contributing -3.17% to GDP[5] Government Spending - Federal government spending remained low, contributing only 0.08% to GDP, while state and local government spending increased to 0.32%[5] - Defense spending rebounded to 0.08%, while non-defense spending continued to decline[5] Future Outlook - The economic growth in Q2 relied heavily on trade fluctuations, with weak performance in consumption, investment, and government spending[11] - The expectation of continued pressure on consumption and investment in Q3 due to tariff impacts and delayed interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve[11] - The upcoming quarter is critical for assessing economic risks, particularly regarding inflation and labor market changes[12]