策略周观点2024年第21期：美联储下调降息预期，国内通胀仍较温和

Market Indicators - During the week of June 11 to June 14, major A-share indices showed mixed performance, with the CSI 300 index experiencing the largest decline of 0.91%, followed by the Shanghai Composite Index at -0.61%. The STAR 50 and ChiNext indices saw increases of 2.21% and 0.58% respectively [5][33]. - The average daily trading volume for the two markets was 744.79 billion yuan, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 3.07%. The electronics sector was the most active, with a trading volume of 573.13 billion yuan, followed by power equipment and pharmaceutical sectors at 220.55 billion yuan and 204.00 billion yuan respectively [8][18]. Liquidity Indicators - As of June 14, the net inflow of funds into the A-share market was 620.26 billion yuan, with a large single net amount (BBD) of -32.44 billion yuan. Northbound funds had a total buying amount of 167.20 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 17.14 billion yuan, marking a significant week-on-week decrease of 423.07% [39][23]. Valuation Levels - As of June 14, the dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the Shanghai 50 index was at a historical percentile of approximately 60.70% since 2010. Among the major indices, only six sectors had PE ratios exceeding the historical 50th percentile [44][47]. - The current valuation levels for various sectors indicate that the non-bank financial sector (55.46%), coal (60.20%), and basic chemicals (63.40%) are above the historical 50th percentile, while sectors like social services, power equipment, and computer industries are below the historical 10th percentile [47][48]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors that are aligned with the development of new productive forces, equipment upgrades, and the replacement of consumer goods. Additionally, it highlights that growth sectors are showing improved conditions, while defensive configurations in dividend styles continue to attract capital [50].