城市燃气行业深度报告：拐点已现，行业进入低渗透、中增速、有股息的2.0时代

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment recommendation for the urban gas industry, indicating a transition into a low penetration, moderate growth, and dividend-yielding phase [1]. Core Insights - The global natural gas price center has significantly declined, and domestic pricing policies are being continuously implemented, leading to a recovery in industry profitability [1][2]. - The urban gas sector is expected to enter a new phase characterized by stable gross margins and robust operational cash flow, enhancing its public utility attributes [1][2][3]. - The report highlights the long-term growth potential of natural gas consumption in China, driven by economic recovery and a shift towards low-carbon energy sources [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Initial Signs of Turning Point - Global natural gas consumption is projected to reach 3.96 trillion cubic meters in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, while production is expected to be 4.28 trillion cubic meters, up 0.8% [7][11]. - The global natural gas supply-demand balance is becoming looser, with the production/consumption ratio reaching 1.08, the highest since 2010 [7][11]. - The average LNG import price in China has dropped to $11.25 per million British thermal units, a decrease of 52.94% from the beginning of the year [14][17]. 2. Turning Point in Consumption - The report notes that natural gas is becoming a preferred energy source, with consumption in Asia increasing by 1.8% year-on-year in 2023, while North America shows a modest growth of 1.2% [11][21]. - The decline in gas prices and economic recovery are expected to boost gas consumption, particularly in industries like glass and ceramics [1][2][3]. 3. Urban Gas Industry Characteristics - The urban gas sector is characterized by stable gross margins, which enhance its public utility attributes and provide steady operational cash flow [1][2][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of gross margin management for urban gas companies, which operate as distributors without controlling upstream gas sources [1][2][3]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading companies with strong dividend returns, such as Xinao Gas, and suggests paying attention to other firms like Jiufeng Energy and CR Gas [1][2][3].