宏观经济研究 | 宏观经济研究 证券研究报告 报告日期 2026 年 01 月 29 日 分析师：段超 S0190516070004 duanchao@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：卓泓 S0190519070002 zhuohong@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：彭华莹 S0190522100002 penghuaying@xyzq.com.cn 相关研究 【兴证宏观】20260121-美国就业数据能 带来宽松交易机会吗？-2026.01.21 20260119-"斩杀线"发酵对美国经济的 影响——从移民的贡献谈起-2026.01.19 20260111【兴证宏观】海外周报第 99 期：贵金属震荡上行，降息预期推迟- 2026.01.12 美东时间 2026 年 1 月 28 日，美联储召开 FOMC 会议，公布维持 3.5%-3.75%的利率 水平。会后鲍威尔召开新闻发布会。我们解读如下： 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 1/5 一场联储独立性的讨论 ——2026 年 1 月 FOMC 会议点评 投资要点： ⚫ 如期按兵不动，市场波动不大，整体解读为利率声明偏鹰而鲍威尔发布会偏鸽。本次利 率决议维持当前 ...

行业周报 | 房地产 证券研究报告 分析师:洪波 S0190523040002 hongbo@xyzq.com.cn | 行业评级 | 中性(维持) | | --- | --- | | 报告日期 | 2026 年 01 月 25 日 | 相关研究 【 兴证地产 】商业用房最低首付比例下 调,延续实施换房退税政策 -- 新房二手 房周报（第２周）-2026.01.18 【 兴证地产】国常会部署实施促内需一揽 子政策,扩大公租房保障范围 -- 新房二 手房周报（第 1 周）-2026.01.11 【 兴证地产 】改善和稳定房地产市场预 期,两部门优化卖房增值税政策 -- 新房 二手房周报（第 53 周）-2026.01.04 分析师:靳璐瑜 S0190520080003 jinluyu@xyzq.com.cn 行业周报 | 房地产 目录 | 一、 本周市场重要信息及数据概览 . | | --- | | 二、 附录 | | （一） 长三角地区 . | | （ 二 ） 珠三角地区 ……………………………………………………………………………………… 10 | | ( 三 ) 环渤海地区 ………………………………………… ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral (maintained) [1] Core Insights - In December 2025, China's textile product exports weakened again, with yarn, fabrics, and products amounting to USD 12.58 billion, down 4.2% year-on-year; clothing and accessories exports were USD 13.41 billion, down 10.2%; and footwear exports were USD 3.91 billion, down 17.4% [2] - The recent stability of the RMB exchange rate has alleviated concerns about rapid appreciation, suggesting a focus on quality OEM companies such as Huali Group, leading auxiliary material supplier Weixing Co., and steadily expanding Kai Run Co. [2] - The report highlights a significant increase in wool auction prices due to strong demand, with the Eastern Market Index (EMI) for Australian wool rising by 107 Australian cents/kg [2] - The report suggests monitoring companies like New Australia Co. and Baolong Oriental, which have high dividend intentions, as well as Taihua New Materials, which may benefit from anti-involution policies in the chemical industry [2] Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Review - The textile and apparel sector underperformed against the CSI 300 index, with the Jiangsu textile index declining by 0.82% compared to a 0.57% drop in the CSI 300, resulting in a 0.25 percentage point underperformance [9] Section 2: Major Raw Material Prices and Industry Tracking (1) Major Raw Material Price Trends - As of January 16, 2026, cotton prices were at CNY 16,002/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.09%; polyester POY was CNY 6,700/ton, up 2.29%; and nylon POY remained stable at CNY 11,600/ton [21][23] (2) Export Data Tracking - In December 2025, China's textile exports were USD 12.58 billion, down 4.2% year-on-year; clothing exports were USD 13.41 billion, down 10.2%; and footwear exports were USD 3.91 billion, down 17.4% [29][31] - Vietnam's textile exports in December 2025 reached USD 3.65 billion, up 8.4% year-on-year, while footwear exports were USD 2.20 billion, up 4.3% [35][37] (3) Domestic and Overseas Apparel Consumption Tracking - In November 2025, China's retail sales growth was 1.3%, with apparel and footwear sales growing by 3.5% [39] - In October 2025, U.S. apparel wholesale inventory was USD 28.04 billion, with a stock-to-sales ratio of 2.04 [40]

Group 1 - Since late November, the Hong Kong stock market has weakened due to a slowdown in southbound capital inflows as the year-end approaches, leading to a decline in market risk appetite [3][14] - The three main concerns affecting the market include foreign capital reducing positions before the Christmas holiday, hedge funds shorting due to uncertainties, and worries about new regulations on mainland public funds potentially increasing selling pressure on Hong Kong stocks [3][14] Group 2 - With the new year, a new round of upward momentum in the Hong Kong stock market is expected, driven by seasonal inflows from insurance funds and the long-term allocation logic from the switch to IFRS9 accounting standards for non-listed insurance companies [5][31] - The market sentiment has dropped to a low point, significantly improving the risk-reward ratio, with signs of short covering in major tech stocks [6][18] - The proportion of short positions in leading internet stocks has shown signs of decline, indicating a potential rebound in stock prices as they reach attractive valuation levels [6][19] Group 3 - The expectation of RMB appreciation is expected to enhance the attractiveness of RMB assets, driving foreign capital inflows into Hong Kong stocks [7][42] - Historical data shows that during previous RMB appreciation cycles, the Hong Kong stock market has consistently performed well, particularly in the information technology sector [7][43] - The RMB is projected to appreciate against the USD, potentially returning to the "6" range, which could further incentivize foreign investment in Chinese equities [7][47] Group 4 - Investment recommendations suggest a bullish stance on Hong Kong stocks, particularly led by the Hang Seng Technology Index, with expectations of continued market growth driven by earnings and liquidity [52] - Key investment opportunities include leading internet companies in the AI sector, which are expected to benefit from both domestic and foreign capital inflows [53][54] - High dividend assets are highlighted as strategic investments in a low-interest-rate environment, with a current dividend yield of 6.70% for the Hang Seng High Dividend Yield Index [58][60] - New consumption trends are emerging, focusing on traditional service consumption transformation, Z-generation spending habits, and high-end consumption recovery [61][64]

Commodity Market Insights - Gold prices experienced a significant decline of 4.4% after reaching a historical high, influenced by profit-taking and a stronger dollar[3] - Silver prices saw increased volatility, with fluctuations exceeding 5% in the first three trading days of the week, leading to an 8.4% drop due to margin increases by the CME[3] - WTI crude oil prices fell by 0.7% amid expectations of oversupply in the global market[3] Geopolitical Events - Notable geopolitical "black swan" events occurred, including an attack on Putin's residence, escalating protests in Iran due to high inflation, and a U.S. airstrike in Venezuela resulting in the arrest of President Maduro[3] - The impact of these geopolitical uncertainties on commodity prices remains to be observed, with ongoing monitoring of global geopolitical developments[3] U.S. Economic Indicators - The December FOMC meeting minutes revealed significant internal disagreements on future monetary policy, with some officials advocating for rate cuts if inflation decreases as expected[4] - U.S. existing home sales in November fell by 0.3% year-on-year, indicating continued weakness in the real estate market[4] - The Dallas Fed's business activity index dropped to -10.9, reflecting a further decline of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month[4] Eurozone Economic Performance - Eurozone manufacturing PMI for December was revised down to 48.8, indicating accelerated contraction and falling below market expectations[5] - The euro depreciated by 0.4% against the dollar, influenced by weak manufacturing data[5] - Major stock indices in Europe saw modest gains, with the Stoxx 50, DAX, and CAC indices rising by 1.8%, 0.8%, and 1.1% respectively[5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The net financing amount of local government bonds in 2026 is expected to rise overall compared to 2025, with preliminary forecasts of approximately 7.28 trillion, 7.66 trillion, and 8.04 trillion yuan under conservative, neutral, and optimistic scenarios respectively [1][16]. - The issuance rhythm of replacement bonds in Q1 2026 is expected to remain front - loaded, and the issuance rhythm of new special bonds may be faster than that in 2025 [4][34]. - The net financing amount of local government bonds in January 2026 is expected to be 649.9 billion yuan, with the issuance rhythm likely to be faster year - on - year, and the supply pressure in the second half of January is relatively large [4][41]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2026 Local Government Bond Net Supply Estimation - **New Bonds**: The issuance scale mainly depends on the budget deficit ratio determined by the National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference in March each year, the distribution of central and local fiscal deficits, and the new special bond quota. As of the end of 2025, there is still an estimated 1.16 trillion yuan of space between the local government debt limit and the balance. The preliminary forecasts of the new bond issuance scale in 2026 under conservative, neutral, and optimistic scenarios are approximately 5.43 trillion, 5.72 trillion, and 6.00 trillion yuan respectively [2][8][10]. - **Special Refinancing Bonds**: The quota is arranged as needed. Referring to the 2025 level, the preliminary forecasts of the special refinancing bond issuance scale in 2026 under conservative, neutral, and optimistic scenarios are approximately 2.3 trillion, 2.4 trillion, and 2.5 trillion yuan respectively [2][15]. - **Net Repayment of Matured Local Government Bonds**: From 2021 to 2025, the average refinancing ratio of matured local government bonds was about 87.4%. Based on this ratio, the net repayment scale of matured local government bonds in 2026 is estimated to be about 456.1 billion yuan [2][16]. 3.2 How to Anticipate the Rhythm of Local Government Bond Net Supply Early? - **One - week - ahead Forecast**: Relatively accurate local government bond net supply data can be obtained 5 working days before issuance. Provincial financial departments are required to disclose key information such as the issuance scale and term at least 5 working days before the issuance of new general bonds, new special bonds, and refinancing bonds [21]. - **Monthly 21st Forecast**: On the 21st of each month, a preliminary judgment on the next - month's ten - day supply can be made. However, in practice, there are differences in information disclosure timeliness, issuance plan adjustments, and deviations between actual execution and plans. Subsequent forecasts can be dynamically revised by combining information such as national debt supply, local government bond quarterly issuance plans, local government bond limits, and local government bond weekly issuance data [22][23][29]. 3.3 Q1 2026 and January 2026 Local Government Bond Net Supply Forecast - **Policy Review and Outlook**: In Q1 2025, replacement bonds were issued intensively, and the issuance progress of new special bonds was lower than expected. In Q1 2026, it is expected that replacement bonds will maintain a front - loaded issuance trend, and the issuance rhythm of new special bonds may be faster [30][34]. - **Q1 2026 Local Government Bond Issuance Forecast**: As of December 28, 2025, the planned issuance total for Q1 2026 was about 1.75 trillion yuan. Assuming the same ratio as in 2025Q1, the actual issuance in 2026Q1 is expected to be 1.79 trillion yuan, with a corresponding net financing amount of 1.12 trillion yuan. The issuance term in 2026Q1 has no obvious pattern due to a small sample size [35][38]. - **January 2026 Local Government Bond Net Supply Forecast**: The net financing amount of local government bonds in January 2026 is expected to be 649.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 173.8 billion yuan. The supply pressure in the second half of January is relatively large. The issuance rhythm in January 2026 is likely to be faster than in the same period of 2025 [41][43]. - **Summary**: The issuance rhythm of local government bonds in January 2026 is expected to be significantly faster year - on - year. The planned issuance scale in 2026Q1 has decreased significantly year - on - year, but this is mainly due to incomplete disclosure of provincial and municipal issuance plans, so the year - on - year change has limited reference value [48].

Group 1: Industry Overview - The report maintains a positive outlook on the transportation industry, indicating a recovery phase supported by supply and demand dynamics, particularly in the aviation sector [1][75]. - The express delivery sector shows a year-on-year growth in business volume of 14.9% and revenue growth of 7.1% from January to November 2025, reflecting a robust demand environment [3][18]. - The shipping industry is experiencing fluctuations, with the BDI index at 1900 points, down 10.49% week-on-week, while the CCFI and SCFI indices show slight increases, indicating mixed market conditions [59][61]. Group 2: Aviation Sector Insights - Domestic flight volume reached 86,137 flights during the week of December 19-25, 2025, with a daily average of 12,305 flights, reflecting a 1.42% increase week-on-week and a 1.21% increase year-on-year [12][13]. - Domestic passenger volume for the same period was 12.03 million, up 3.48% week-on-week and 6.04% year-on-year, indicating strong recovery in air travel demand [12][13]. - The average ticket price for domestic flights increased by 5.47% week-on-week, while the average bare ticket price rose by 6.08%, suggesting upward pricing pressure in the aviation market [12][13]. Group 3: Express Delivery Sector Analysis - Weekly average collection volume for express delivery was approximately 580 million pieces, with a slight decrease of 1.74% week-on-week, while delivery volume increased by 3.35% [17]. - Year-to-date average collection volume stands at about 544 million pieces per day, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.98% [17]. - The express delivery industry is characterized by a CR8 index of 87%, indicating a high level of market concentration, with major players like SF Express, YTO Express, and Shentong Express showing varied growth rates [21][27]. Group 4: Shipping Sector Developments - The international dry bulk market is facing a decline, with the BDI index down 10.49%, while the international container shipping market shows resilience with the SCFI index up 6.66% [59][61]. - The VLCC-TCE rate in the international oil shipping market decreased by 30.29%, indicating volatility in oil transport pricing [60]. - The report highlights the potential for a recovery in shipping rates driven by demand from the oil and dry bulk sectors, particularly as geopolitical factors may influence pricing dynamics [81]. Group 5: Recommendations and Focus Areas - Recommended stocks include China National Offshore Oil Corporation, China Eastern Airlines, and Spring Airlines, reflecting confidence in the aviation sector's recovery [4][76]. - The report suggests focusing on logistics companies like Milkrun and Hongchuan Wisdom, which are expected to benefit from the recovery in chemical logistics and warehousing [80]. - In the shipping sector, companies like China Merchants Energy Shipping are highlighted for their potential to benefit from the oil and dry bulk market recovery [81].

Policy and Industry Trends - The Chinese government aims to make the smart economy a key growth driver by 2030, as outlined in the "Artificial Intelligence+" action plan released on August 26, 2025[9] - Local governments are actively promoting AI integration with the economy, with Shanghai's "AI+ Manufacturing" initiative targeting 3,000 companies for smart applications by 2028[13] AI Sector Performance - The communication industry achieved a revenue of CNY 13,249.50 billion in H1 2025, marking a 3.0% year-on-year growth, with net profit increasing by 7.7% to CNY 1,376.05 billion[15] - The optical module sector saw revenues of CNY 49.61 billion in H1 2025, a 63.4% increase, and net profits surged by 115.5% to CNY 11.16 billion[21] Market Indices and Investment Opportunities - The CSI STAR & CHINEXT Artificial Intelligence Index has an annualized return of 19.02% since its inception, significantly outperforming broader indices like the CSI 300[48] - The index covers 15 sub-industries, with the top three being communication equipment, semiconductors, and software development, reflecting strong market interest in AI[48] Profitability and Growth Projections - The computer industry reported a net profit of CNY 38.92 billion in Q1-Q3 2025, a 61.52% increase year-on-year, driven by strong demand for computing power[43] - The AI chip market in China is projected to grow from CNY 65.2 billion in 2023 to CNY 161.1 billion by 2026, indicating a robust demand for high-performance chips[37] Risk and Investment Considerations - The upcoming rebalancing of the CSI STAR & CHINEXT AI Index is expected to improve stock concentration and lower valuation levels, enhancing the risk-return profile for investors[48] - Investors should be aware of the high-risk nature of equity funds, as past performance does not guarantee future results[48]

Policy Insights - The focus of policies is on high-quality economic development and external coordination, with significant meetings held to support the Hainan Free Trade Port as a key gateway for China's new era of opening up[3] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) held a meeting to promote the professional integration of central enterprises, emphasizing the importance of optimizing resource allocation and enhancing core competitiveness[8] Production & Infrastructure - Upstream production activities have weakened, with a slight decrease in blast furnace operating rates and stable daily consumption of thermal coal, while prices continue to rise[3] - The new housing sales volume has slightly rebounded, particularly in second-tier cities, while the second-hand housing market has significantly declined, remaining below last year's levels[3] Transportation - Urban transportation has seen a slight recovery, with air travel experiencing a significant increase, as evidenced by a rise in flight numbers and operational rates compared to last year[3] Consumer Trends - The growth rate of automobile sales has slowed, with retail and wholesale numbers continuing to rise compared to last year, but at a decelerating pace[3] Price Movements - Overall prices in the upstream sector have risen, while downstream prices have slightly decreased, particularly in vegetables, with crude oil prices showing a minor decline and iron ore prices rebounding[3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Views - The innovative drug industry chain continues to show strong performance, with the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector outperforming the CSI 300 index, rising by 3.29% while the index fell by 1.08% during the week of November 10 to November 14, 2025 [9][10] - The market potential for small nucleic acids is continuously increasing, indicating that it may become a significant technological hotspot in innovative drugs [19][22] - The sentiment in the innovative drug sector has recently declined, but the sustainability of the sector's prosperity is expected to continue, with a focus on "innovation + internationalization" [22][24] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Pharmaceutical Sector Performance - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector has shown a year-to-date increase of 22.99%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.38 percentage points [9] - The sector's valuation as of November 14, 2025, is 30.89 (PE, TTM), with a premium of 129.74% over the CSI 300 index [10] 2. Industry Events/Policy Overview - On November 14, 2025, the National Bureau of Statistics reported a stable economic performance, with industrial production increasing by 4.9% year-on-year [17] - The People's Bank of China reported an increase of 14.97 trillion yuan in RMB loans in the first ten months of 2025 [17] 3. Industry Investment Strategy - The report highlights the active business development (BD) transactions in the innovative drug sector, with significant collaborations and licensing agreements, such as the partnership between Sainty Biotech and Eli Lilly [19] - The report suggests a focus on the recovery of the medical device and traditional Chinese medicine sectors, as well as the ongoing improvement in the innovative drug industry chain [22][28] 4. Recommended Stocks - Recommended stocks include: - **Hengrui Medicine**: Expected to achieve rapid growth in both domestic and international markets [29] - **BeiGene**: Anticipated to achieve comprehensive profitability in 2025, with strong performance in its core products [30] - **Innovent Biologics**: Expected to reach a revenue target of 20 billion yuan by 2027 [31] - **Kanglong Chemical**: Projected to see significant revenue growth driven by its innovative products [32] - **WuXi AppTec**: Anticipated to maintain rapid growth in its core business and increase global production capacity [33]