固定收益研究 | 债市研究 证券研究报告 2025 年 09 月 03 日 报告日期 分析师:左大勇 【 兴证固收 】"反内卷" 提升价格和经营 预期,建筑业收缩 -- 8月中采 PMI点 评-2025.09.02 【兴证固收】成交热度有所回落,收益 率下行利差收窄 -- 银行二永债周度跟 踪（2025.08.25-2025.08.29）- 2025.09.02 【 兴证固收 】四问"股债晓晓板"- 2025.09.02 股债跷跷板下信用债的"攻守道" 投资要点: 风险提示:政策落地不达预期;经济出现超预期上行,海外经济与政策出现超预期变化, 信用债违约超预期。 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 S0190516070005 zuodayong@xyzq.com.cn 分析师:肖雨 S0190524120003 xiaoyu@xyzq.com.cn 分析师:徐曦 S0190525070009 xuxi@xyzq.com.cn 相关研究 1/11 ● 一、7 月中旬以来信用债走势大致呈现"M"型 √ 观察 2025/07/21-2025/08/29 期间债市表现，整体来看，不管是利率债还是信用债， 短端相比长端更为 ...

Industry Rating - Investment Rating: Recommended (Maintain) [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical industry is expected to benefit from the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which may drive demand and support the recovery of the industry [2][4]. - The significant growth of chemical ETFs, from 2.2 billion to 15.7 billion, indicates a positive outlook for leading chemical companies and new material growth [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on core chemical assets, which are expected to see profit and valuation recovery in the medium to long term [3][5]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Long-term value in white horse stocks is emphasized, with core chemical assets expected to experience profit and valuation recovery [3]. - Attention is drawn to leading chemical companies as potential investment opportunities due to their strong market positions and growth prospects [4][5]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights the impact of external factors such as the U.S. tariffs on Indian goods, which may improve the pesticide trade between the U.S. and China, benefiting companies like Yangnong Chemical and Runfeng Shares [4]. - The recent adjustments in real estate policies in Shanghai are expected to marginally improve demand for chemical products related to the real estate sector [4]. Price Trends - The report notes that chemical product prices and price spreads are currently at bottom levels, suggesting potential for price increases in the future [5]. - Specific price movements are tracked, such as the increase in Vitamin B3 and D3 prices due to supply tightness, and the upward trend in refrigerant prices driven by supply constraints [9][10]. Supply Chain Insights - The report discusses the supply-side changes in the ethylene industry due to force majeure events, which may lead to supply recovery in the sector [4]. - It also mentions the ongoing supply constraints in the refrigerant market due to quota management, which is expected to maintain high price levels [9]. Strategic Focus Areas - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the chemical sector, such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and others, as they are likely to benefit from industry recovery and supply-side improvements [4][5]. - The emphasis is placed on the potential for strategic opportunities in the petrochemical sector as oil prices stabilize and supply-demand dynamics shift [5].

公司点评报告 | 公用事业 证券研究报告 | 报告日期 | 2025 年 09 月 01 日 | | --- | --- | | 公司评级 | 买入（维持） | 基础数据 | 08 月 29 日收盘价（元） | 28.09 | | --- | --- | | 总市值（亿元） | 6,873.12 | | 总股本（亿股） | 244.68 | 来源：聚源，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 相关研究 【兴证公用】长江电力 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报点评：稳健经营及高比例 分红趋势不改，截至 25Q1 长期借款相较 年初大幅下降-2025.05.01 【兴证公用 蔡屹】长江电力 2024 年三 季报点评：电量增长带动利润增厚，前 三季度财务费用节约明显-2024.10.31 【兴证公用 蔡屹】长江电力 2024 年半 年报点评：来水偏丰带来业绩增长，财 务费用下降明显-2024.08.31 分析师：蔡屹 S0190518030002 caiyi@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：史一粟 S0190523110001 shiyisu@xyzq.com.cn 长江电力(600900.SH) 上半年归母净利润同比+ ...

Group 1: Market Trends and Influences - The implementation of the "Inflation Reduction Act" has raised concerns about increased U.S. Treasury supply in the second half of the year due to tax cuts and higher debt ceilings[2] - After the debt ceiling was lifted in June 2023, U.S. Treasury yields entered an upward trend, influenced by supply acceleration, economic resilience, and tight monetary policy[4] - In Q3 2023, U.S. Treasury yields rose contrary to economic weakness, primarily driven by increased bond supply[4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The Treasury's net financing demand for Q3 2023 was significantly raised to $1.007 trillion, the second-highest since 2021, exceeding the previous estimate of $733 billion[40] - Actual supply exceeded planned issuance, with August 2023 seeing an additional $59.1 billion issued compared to plans, contributing to rising yields[4] - Demand for U.S. Treasuries weakened, with major buyers like the Federal Reserve and foreign investors reducing holdings, leading to a shift towards more price-sensitive buyers[64] Group 3: Yield and Volatility Analysis - The yield curve inversion deepened as short-term debt supply increased and was more sensitive to monetary policy, with the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yield spread widening in May 2023 and narrowing in September[4] - The MOVE index, which measures bond market volatility, remained elevated in the second half of 2023, reflecting uncertainty in monetary policy and economic resilience[4] - The 10-year Treasury yield's term premium rose significantly after the debt ceiling was lifted, indicating increased market concerns about future supply[20]

Export Performance - In July 2025, China's exports increased by 7.2% year-on-year, surpassing the consensus forecast of 5.8% and the previous value of 5.9%[3] - The export of integrated circuits saw a significant rise, with a year-on-year growth rate increasing from 24.2% to 29.2%[5] - Trade surplus reached $98.24 billion, an increase of $12.76 billion compared to the same period last year[3] Import Performance - Imports in July 2025 rose by 4.1% year-on-year, exceeding the forecast of 0.3% and the previous value of 1.1%[3] - The surge in imports from Hong Kong was notable, with a year-on-year increase of 175%, primarily driven by demand for precious metals[5] Market Dynamics - The "price for volume" strategy adopted by enterprises helped mitigate tariff pressures, as export prices declined while volumes increased significantly[5] - European demand showed improvement, with exports to the EU rising from 7.5% to 9.2% year-on-year, reflecting a recovery in economic activity[5] Risks and Concerns - Ongoing tariff disturbances need monitoring, especially with the new "reciprocal tariffs" taking effect on August 7, which may impact demand from the U.S.[5] - There are signs of demand preemption, particularly in non-U.S. and non-EU markets, which could lead to a gradual decline in export volumes as the economic situation stabilizes[5] Economic Outlook - The resilience in external demand enhances confidence in achieving annual economic targets, despite potential downward pressures on exports due to global economic slowdowns and tariff impacts[5]

Group 1: Short-term Fiscal Relief - The "Big and Beautiful" Act, signed on July 4, 2025, raises the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, allowing the U.S. to continue its debt-driven economic growth model[2] - Recent tariff agreements with major economies are expected to generate approximately $2.1 trillion in additional tariff revenue over the next decade, alleviating some fiscal concerns[2] - The Act is projected to boost U.S. GDP by 0.15% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026, with a long-term GDP expansion of 1.2%[8] Group 2: Long-term Concerns - U.S. federal debt reached $36.2 trillion by Q1 2025, exceeding 120% of GDP, with the "Big and Beautiful" Act expected to add an additional $3.4 trillion to the debt over the next decade[25] - Interest payments are projected to rise from 3.2% of GDP in 2025 to 4.1% by 2035, creating a significant fiscal burden[28] - The reliance on tariffs, which increased the average effective tariff rate to 11.4%, may lead to a decrease in consumer purchasing power and demand for non-essential imports, potentially limiting future tariff revenue growth[18] Group 3: Impact on U.S. Soft Power - The U.S. government's unilateral policies have diminished its international credibility, affecting its global leadership role[28] - Traditional alliances are strained due to aggressive tariff policies and withdrawal from multilateral agreements, leading allies to reconsider their defense spending and reliance on the U.S.[28] - The "Big and Beautiful" Act and tariff policies are contributing to increased income inequality within the U.S., potentially undermining domestic political stability[19]

Policy Insights - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October 2025, emphasizing the need for sustained macroeconomic policy efforts[7] - A new childcare subsidy policy will provide 3,600 yuan per year for each child until the age of three, starting from January 1, 2025[17] Economic Performance - The construction sector shows signs of stabilization, with a slight decrease in funding availability for construction projects, while asphalt construction rates have increased[6] - New home sales in 30 cities have rebounded slightly but remain below last year's levels, while second-hand home sales have declined in nine cities[6] Market Trends - Upstream prices are showing mixed trends, with crude oil prices rising and coal prices remaining stable, while copper and rebar prices have decreased due to market adjustments[8] - Cement prices continue to decline, with a rising inventory-to-capacity ratio and reduced shipping rates[51] Consumer Behavior - Automobile sales are experiencing steady growth, although the year-on-year growth rate for wholesale and retail sales has decreased due to last year's high base[6] - Public transportation activity has slightly increased but remains above last year's levels, while flight execution rates have shown seasonal fluctuations[6] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected changes in domestic economic policies and global geopolitical conflicts, which could impact market stability[10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expansion of Southbound Connect and the improvement of its operating mechanism will provide new channels for domestic institutional investors to allocate overseas bonds. The expansion of participants and the improvement of the mechanism will bring new opportunities for domestic institutional investors to invest in overseas bonds. - The expansion of domestic institutional investors in Southbound Connect is expected to alleviate the unmet demand of non - bank institutions for overseas bond allocation. Non - bank institutions will have more channels to invest in overseas bonds, and the overseas bond market may see more capital inflows into high - coupon bonds such as Chinese - funded US dollar bonds and Dim Sum bonds, which may lead to a further decline in bond yields [91][92]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Recent Development of Bond "Southbound Connect" - **Background and Purpose**: Southbound Connect aims to facilitate domestic institutional investors to allocate offshore bonds by strengthening the cooperation between bond market infrastructure institutions in the Mainland and Hong Kong [11]. - **Regulatory Policy Development**: It has gone through three stages: policy preparation (2017 - 2020), policy launch (2021 - 2022), and deep - opening (2023 - present). In 2025, it is proposed to expand the scope of domestic investors to non - bank institutions and improve relevant mechanisms [13][16][17]. 3.2 Operating Mechanism and Participation Methods of Southbound Connect - **Business Operation and Regulatory Mechanism**: The scope of domestic investors is currently limited to 41 banks and QDII/RQDII - qualified institutions. Investors need to open accounts through designated domestic custodian banks or bond registration and settlement institutions and open accounts in the CMU system of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority for cross - border custody. The total annual quota for all participating institutions is 500 billion yuan, and the daily quota is 20 billion yuan [24][33]. - **Current Domestic Investors Participating in Southbound Connect**: As of July 2025, the expansion policy has not been fully implemented. The investors are still limited to primary dealers (excluding non - bank institutions and rural commercial banks) and QDII/RQDII - qualified institutional investors [32]. - **Participation Process**: It includes qualification approval and account opening, and the bidding process (viewing quotation intentions, sending quotation requests, receiving responses from quotation providers, and confirming transactions). Currently, investors mainly prefer investment - grade Chinese - funded US dollar bonds and high - rated Dim Sum bonds, and the expansion of investors may change the investment preference [38][40]. 3.3 Current Investment Opportunities in Southbound Connect - **Overall Situation of Southbound Connect Sector**: The investable bonds include offshore RMB bonds (Dim Sum bonds), Hong Kong dollar bonds, and G3 currency bonds. As of July 29, 2025, the total scale of tradable bonds in the Hong Kong market was 1.2052 trillion US dollars, with 5,892 bonds. Chinese - funded US dollar bonds and Dim Sum bonds accounted for more than 70% of the investable bonds in Southbound Connect [54]. - **Focus on Dim Sum Bonds**: The scale of Dim Sum bonds has expanded significantly since 2023. As of July 17, 2025, there were 3,099 outstanding Dim Sum bonds with a total scale of 1.5449 trillion yuan. The financial services and sovereign debt sectors have a large scale. Dim Sum bonds have a higher coupon rate than domestic bonds, especially in the urban investment, real estate, and bank sectors. However, attention should be paid to their subsequent performance as the yields have declined significantly in recent months [63][64][67]. - **Focus on Chinese - funded US dollar bonds**: As of early July 2025, there were 2,009 outstanding Chinese - funded US dollar bonds with a total scale of 666.7 billion US dollars. The real estate, internet media, bank, and urban investment sectors have a large scale. The issuance of Chinese - funded US dollar bonds has slowed down since 2023, and the newly issued bonds are mainly unrated. Chinese - funded US dollar bonds have a higher coupon rate than domestic bonds, especially in the urban investment and real estate sectors. Attention should be paid to high - quality individual bonds and short - term risks [71][74][83]. 3.4 Impact of the Expansion of Domestic Institutional Investors in Southbound Connect - **For Non - bank Institutions**: The expansion of participants is expected to alleviate the unmet demand of non - bank institutions for overseas bond allocation. They can invest in overseas bonds through the Southbound Connect channel in addition to using QDII quotas [91]. - **For the Overseas Bond Market**: Non - bank institutions have a relatively more active risk preference. High - risk - return bonds such as the real estate and urban investment sectors of Chinese - funded US dollar bonds and the urban investment sector of Dim Sum bonds may receive more attention and capital inflows, which may lead to a further decline in bond yields [92].

Group 1: Investment Opportunities in 2025 - The domestic economy is expected to maintain a GDP growth rate above 5%, driven by strong export performance and advancements in AI and advanced manufacturing [6][10][12] - The new consumption trends, particularly in tea drinks and trendy products, are showing structural prosperity, although demand growth may face challenges due to base effects [6][10] - The overall investment sentiment remains cautious, with weak financing demand observed in the first half of the year, primarily driven by government bonds [6][10] Group 2: AI Investment Opportunities - The AI sector is anticipated to continue its growth, with significant investments from major tech companies, indicating a robust demand for AI capabilities [20][21] - The domestic AI infrastructure is expected to see substantial development, with a focus on hardware upgrades to support large models [20][21] - The application of AI across various sectors, including healthcare and education, is projected to create irreversible changes in profitability for the industry [22][24] Group 3: Technology Investment Opportunities - The Chinese technology sector is breaking through previous technological barriers, particularly in semiconductors, which are expected to see sustained high growth rates [25][26] - The integration of AI with manufacturing is seen as a key driver for future growth, with significant opportunities in robotics and smart manufacturing [27][28] - The focus on supply-side reforms and technological upgrades is expected to create new investment opportunities in various industries [26][28] Group 4: New Energy Investment Opportunities - Despite current challenges in the new energy sector, the long-term growth potential remains strong, with expectations of recovery as the industry stabilizes [38] - The industry is currently facing collective losses, which are unsustainable, indicating a need for restructuring and improved financial health across the supply chain [38]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the week from July 21 - 25, 2025, the bond market adjusted. The net value of benchmark market - making credit bond ETFs and science - innovation bond ETFs declined significantly, and the overall net subscription of science - innovation bonds was 5.56 billion yuan. Institutions may have redeemed ETF shares to cope with liquidity shocks [4]. - After the adjustment, some science - innovation bonds have fallen to a point where they offer value. For allocation portfolios, some exchange - traded science - innovation bonds with a remaining term of 4 - 5 years are worth considering; for trading portfolios, short - term index component science - innovation bonds are more attractive [4]. - The science - innovation bond ETF is expected to expand further. After the adjustment, index component science - innovation bonds with a widening relative spread have certain value, and investors can participate at the current adjusted points and wait for the spread to recover [46]. Summary by Directory I. First Batch of Science - Innovation Bond ETFs Expanded Rapidly in One Week after Listing - On July 17, 2025, 10 science - innovation bond ETFs were listed. By July 25, the total scale exceeded 100 billion yuan, with a growth rate of over 250% [15]. - The 10 products were all raised on July 7, 2025, and the total raised scale was about 29 billion yuan, indicating strong market demand [15]. - There are differences in product elements such as redemption methods, product durations, and component bond capacities among these 10 science - innovation bond ETFs [20]. II. Index Component Bonds of Science - Innovation Bond ETFs Led the Decline in this Adjustment - In terms of net value fluctuations, the net value of benchmark market - making credit bond ETFs and science - innovation bond ETFs declined by about 0.3% in a week [29]. - In terms of subscription and redemption data, the overall net subscription of science - innovation bonds was 5.56 billion yuan, while short - term financing ETFs and benchmark market - making credit bond ETFs with good liquidity were more affected by redemptions, suggesting that institutions may have redeemed shares for liquidity reasons [4]. - In terms of the performance of underlying component bonds, science - innovation bond index component bonds had a faster adjustment speed and a larger adjustment range. Exchange - traded non - science - innovation index component science - innovation bonds and inter - bank science - innovation bonds were relatively more resilient [35]. III. Which Science - Innovation Bonds Have Fallen to an Attractive Level? - After the adjustment, the overall yield of science - innovation bonds increased, and the inversion between the average valuation of short - term component bonds and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit yield improved significantly. However, the yields of 1 - year - below and 1 - 2 - year science - innovation bond index component bonds of AAA grade were still 1 - 2 BP lower than the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit yield [39]. - The relative spread between exchange - traded and inter - bank science - innovation bonds of the same issuer showed differentiation. Index component science - innovation bonds with a widening relative spread have certain value, and investors can participate at the current adjusted points [44]. - For allocation portfolios, some exchange - traded science - innovation bonds with a remaining term of 4 - 5 years are worth considering due to the relatively large increase in valuation compared to their inter - bank counterparts and the attractive static coupon income [46]. - For trading portfolios, it is more advisable to focus on 1 - 2 - year index component science - innovation bonds that have adjusted significantly, have a large outstanding scale, and a valuation higher than 1.67% [49].