行业周报 | 建筑材料 证券研究报告 | 推荐（维持） | 行业评级 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期 | 2025 | 07 | 20 | 相关研究 -2024.12.29 -2024.12.24 -2024.12.15 分析师：季贤东 S0190522100003 jixiandong@xyzq.com.cn 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 1/23 ⚫ ⚫ ⚫ ⚫ ⚫ ⚫ 1% 2025 6 8.15 4.3% 2025 6 358.38 / 32.35 / ⚫ 1176 / 2.65 / 75.34% 0.34pct 3.2mm 18-19 / | | 4 | | 4 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 5 | | 6 | | | | | 2025 | | 7 | 250714-250718 | | 9 | | | | 10 | 250714-250718 | | 10 | | | | + | 250714-250718 | | 12 | 250714-250718 | | 15 | ...

| 行业评级 | 推荐（维持） | | --- | --- | | 报告日期 | 2025 年 07 月 20 日 | 相关研究 【兴证煤炭】煤炭行业周报（2025.7.6- 2025.7.12）——"反内卷"行情加持， 煤价持续走高-2025.07.14 【兴证煤炭】周报 24：酷热来袭需求提 速，动煤价格反弹可期（2025.6.29- 2025.7.05）-2025.07.06 行业周报 | 煤炭 证券研究报告 liranran@xyzq.com.cn 煤炭行业周报（2025.7.13-2025.7.19）—— 煤价全面走高，板块有望开启上攻 投资要点： 周观点（2025.7.13-2025.7.19）：1）动力煤：迎峰度夏已至，坑口煤价全面走高。本周， 坑口煤价全面上涨。供应端，主产地供应逐步恢复，晋陕蒙煤炭产量环比增加。进口端， 在国内外煤价倒挂下，进口煤延续减量，6 月进口同比显著下滑 26%，供应整体有所收紧； 需求端，酷热来袭，社会用电需求大幅攀升，日耗走高，相较去年同期已有增长。展望后 市，随着高温天气持续演绎，煤价有望延续走强。2）炼焦煤：焦煤价格全面走高，坑口现 货价格涨至长协之上。本周， ...

Inflation Data - The US CPI for June 2025 increased by 2.7% year-on-year, up from 2.4% in May, and slightly below the expected 2.6%[6] - Core CPI rose by 2.9% year-on-year, compared to 2.8% in the previous month, aligning with expectations[6] - Month-on-month CPI increased by 0.3%, up from 0.1% in May, while core CPI rose by 0.2%[6] Energy and Core Goods - Energy CPI saw a month-on-month increase of 1.94%, with fuel CPI rising by 3.5 percentage points to 1.03%[6] - Core goods CPI increased by 0.24 percentage points to 0.2%, marking the highest growth in four months[6] - Significant inflation pressure was noted in products highly dependent on China, such as clothing and furniture, reflecting tariff adjustments and inventory consumption[6] Rental and Super Core Inflation - Rent inflation rebounded with a month-on-month increase of 0.03 percentage points to 0.29%, while year-on-year growth remained stable[6] - Super core inflation, excluding housing, increased by 0.17 percentage points to 0.21%, driven by rising prices in air travel and medical services[6] Market Expectations and Risks - The expectation for a July interest rate cut has diminished, with market focus shifting to September for potential cuts[3] - Risks include persistent inflation exceeding expectations and the Federal Reserve's rate cuts being less aggressive than anticipated[4]

Group 1: Stablecoin Overview - Stablecoins are digital currencies anchored to a reference value, primarily traditional financial assets, with Tether (USDT) and USDC being the largest, valued at $156.7 billion and $61.8 billion respectively, together accounting for over 85% of the total market[30] - The total market capitalization of stablecoins reached approximately $232 billion by March 2025, a nearly 45-fold increase from $5.2 billion at the end of 2019[31] - Stablecoin transaction volume approached $35.5 trillion in the past 12 months, with $7.4 trillion in payments settled, indicating significant growth compared to traditional payment platforms like PayPal and Mastercard[36] Group 2: Regulatory Developments - The U.S. is enhancing its stablecoin regulatory framework through the STABLE Act and GENIUS Act, requiring a 1:1 reserve ratio with assets like U.S. dollars or short-term U.S. Treasury securities[54] - U.S. stablecoins, particularly USDT and USDC, hold over $170 billion in U.S. Treasury securities, ranking them as the 17th largest holder, surpassing countries like Germany and South Korea[48] - Hong Kong's Stablecoin Ordinance, effective August 1, 2025, allows for a more inclusive regulatory environment, permitting reserves in multiple currencies and maintaining a 1:1 reserve requirement[63] Group 3: Market Implications - Stablecoins are expected to play a crucial role in reshaping the international financial system, particularly in cross-border payments, due to their efficiency and low costs[70] - The integration of stablecoins with Real World Assets (RWA) is anticipated to create a sustainable growth environment, leveraging blockchain technology to enhance trust and efficiency in asset transactions[74] - The demand for decentralized and efficient payment solutions is increasing as countries seek to reduce reliance on traditional dollar-based systems amid geopolitical tensions[70]

Group 1: Industrial Profit Trends - In April 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits maintained positive growth, primarily supported by export demand, while revenue growth showed a marginal decline[9] - The middle-stream profit growth weakened, mainly due to the energy and chemical industries, consistent with the decline in related commodity prices[12] - The downstream profit improved, particularly in the automotive sector, indicating a potential impact from export demand[15] Group 2: Inventory and Demand Dynamics - In March and April 2025, industrial enterprises showed signs of inventory destocking, with raw material inventory growth rates declining marginally in March and finished product inventory growth rates also decreasing in April[10][42] - The inventory turnover days and inventory-to-sales ratio for industrial enterprises remain high, indicating ongoing inventory management challenges[52] - As of March 2025, the inventory growth rate compared to the entire year of 2024 increased, primarily due to structural replenishment in consumer goods[47] Group 3: Risks and Market Outlook - Risk factors include unexpected changes in domestic economic policies and global geopolitical conflicts, which could impact industrial performance[11][53] - The report highlights the need for careful monitoring of market conditions and potential shifts in consumer demand as economic indicators evolve[53]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [2] Core Insights - The implementation of public fund reforms is expected to enhance the constraint of performance benchmarks, leading to an increased allocation towards the significantly underweighted banking sector [4][9] - The new assessment mechanism for public funds emphasizes investor returns and aligns the interests of fund companies with investors, which is likely to result in a greater focus on fund performance and benchmark deviations [4][9] Summary by Relevant Sections Public Fund Reform Impact - The China Securities Regulatory Commission released a plan on May 7, 2025, to promote high-quality development of public funds, which includes establishing a performance evaluation system centered on fund investment returns [4][9] - Fund managers are required to have performance indicators account for no less than 80% of their evaluation, with significant penalties for underperformance relative to benchmarks [4][9] Industry Allocation Insights - As of the end of 2024, the banking sector accounted for only 3.81% of active fund holdings, while the weight of the banking sector in the CSI 300 index was 13.67%, indicating a deviation of nearly 10 percentage points [6][12] - The new public fund assessment mechanism is expected to lead to an increase in bank holdings among active funds, thereby reducing the deviation from performance benchmarks [6][12] Individual Stock Insights - Major banks such as China Merchants Bank and Industrial Bank have significant underweight positions in active funds, with deviations of 1.9% and 1.5% respectively, suggesting that these banks may benefit from increased allocations as funds adjust their holdings [6][27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In March 2025, the net financing scale of Chinese - issued US - dollar bonds in the primary market was positive, with an increase in issuance volume month - on - month. The main issuers were comprehensive banks, integrated oil companies, and sovereign bonds. In the secondary market, the long - and short - term interest rates of US Treasury bonds fluctuated, and the pressure on US Treasury bonds increased. The overall yield of the Xingzheng Chinese - issued US - dollar bond tracking index declined, and the spread widened [4][37][39] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Primary Market of Chinese - issued US - dollar Bonds - **Overall Situation**: In March, the issuance volume increased month - on - month, and the net financing scale was positive. The main issuers were comprehensive banks, integrated oil companies, and sovereign bonds. The issuance volume in March was 207, compared with 37.79 in February 2025 and 76.85 in 2024. The net financing amount was 151.79 [4] - **Key Industry Tracking** - **Real Estate Industry**: In March, there were 7 issuances with a total amount of 61.14 [22] - **Banking and Urban Investment Financing Platforms**: In March, 10 issuances totaled 20.67, and 27 issuances totaled 46.01 [31] 3.2 Secondary Market of Chinese - issued US - dollar Bonds - **Market Overview**: In March, the long - and short - term interest rates of US Treasury bonds fluctuated, and the pressure on US Treasury bonds increased. The 2 - year US Treasury bond yield decreased from 4.08% in February to 4.03% in March, a decrease of 5bp; the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield decreased from 4.24% in February to 4.23% in March [37] - **Xingzheng Chinese - issued US - dollar Bond Tracking Index**: The overall yield declined, and the spread widened. The yield changes were 0.05, 0.41, 0.91, and the spread changes were 30.74bp, 19.19bp, 16.47bp [39][41] - **Tracking of Active Bonds and Active Issuers in the Month** - **Active Issuers in March**: There were several active Chinese - issued US - dollar bond issuers in March, but there may be deviations in statistical data [44] - **Valuation Changes of Active Bonds in March**: There were significant valuation changes in some bonds in March. For example, the valuation yield of BN3850672 changed by 815.13bp, and that of BQ3057743 changed by 288.40bp [49]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company for the first time [2]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the domestic backlight display module industry, specializing in the research, production, and sales of backlight display modules, with a focus on Mini LED and LIPO technologies as future growth drivers [4][5]. - The company has received a high-tech enterprise certification, allowing it to enjoy a reduced corporate income tax rate of 15% for three consecutive years from 2024 to 2026 [4]. - The company is expected to see significant growth in revenue and net profit over the next few years, driven by the expansion of its Mini LED and LIPO businesses [4][37]. Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 1,026 million yuan in 2023 to 2,600 million yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 30.46% [4][37]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 46 million yuan in 2023 to 348 million yuan in 2026, reflecting a CAGR of 147.3% from 2024 to 2025 and 55.3% from 2025 to 2026 [4][37]. - The gross margin is anticipated to improve from 13.1% in 2023 to 25.8% in 2026, indicating enhanced profitability [4][37]. Business Growth Drivers - The Mini LED market is rapidly developing, particularly in the automotive sector, where the company has established partnerships with several well-known clients, positioning itself for significant growth [4][15][22]. - The LIPO technology is becoming a key trend in high-end smartphone displays, with the company having successfully achieved mass production of this technology, enhancing its competitiveness in the OLED market [4][36][24]. Market Position - The company is positioned in the midstream of the LED industry chain, benefiting from the expanding downstream liquid crystal display module market, which is expected to grow significantly due to increased production capacity in China [5][8]. - The domestic LCD panel capacity share is projected to rise from 67% in 2023 to 70% by 2025, further driving demand for backlight display modules [8].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights a positive trend in IDC's Q1 performance, with a projected revenue of 3895.89 billion, reflecting a growth of 4.56% [4][8] - The report indicates a significant increase in capital expenditure (CAPEX) for 2024, estimated at 613.7 billion, which is a 17% increase [4][8] - The 5G sector is expected to grow substantially, with a projected growth rate of 17.1% for 2024 [4][8] Summary by Sections IDC Performance - IDC's Q1 revenue is projected at 3895.89 billion, with a growth of 4.56% [4][8] - The report notes a 10.49% increase in a specific segment, with revenue reaching 90.30 billion [4][8] - Another segment is expected to decline by 10.60%, with revenue at 66.99 billion [4][8] Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) - CAPEX for 2024 is projected at 613.7 billion, marking a 17% increase [4][8] - The report anticipates an 8% decrease in CAPEX for 2025, estimated at 1512 billion [4][8] 5G Sector Insights - The 5G sector is projected to grow by 17.1% in 2024, with significant investments expected [4][8] - The report indicates that 5G technology will account for 85% of the market share in the coming years [4][8] Industry Events - Several companies are scheduled for shareholder meetings and earnings releases, including Ruiming Technology and China Telecom [12]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights a strong performance in the real estate sector, particularly in Hong Kong local stocks, with notable companies such as New World Development (+4.5%), Link REIT (+0.7%), and Hang Lung Group (+0.4%) showing positive trends [4][5] - The report emphasizes the support from the central government for the real estate market, including measures to lower reserve requirements and interest rates, aimed at stabilizing the market and promoting healthy development [4][43][44] - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Beike, Greentown China, China Resources Land, China Overseas Development, Yuexiu Property, and Longfor Group, as well as property management firms like China Resources Vientiane Life, Greentown Service, and Poly Property [4][45] Market Overview - The report notes that the cumulative sales area in 30 major cities reached 5.06 million square meters in March 2025, representing an 8.8% increase year-on-year [36] - The report provides insights into the performance of various sectors, with property management companies like Jin Ke Service (+9.3%), Country Garden Services (+1.0%), and Binjiang Services (+0.8%) performing well [12][13] Company Performance - The report details the performance of key companies, with Beike reporting a net income of 93.5 billion yuan for 2024, a 20.2% increase year-on-year, despite a 30.8% decrease in net profit [41] - The report also highlights the performance of Hong Kong local stocks, with companies like Kerry Properties and Swire Properties showing slight declines, while others like New World Development and Link REIT showed gains [6][7][8] Policy Support - The report discusses the unprecedented policy support for the real estate sector, including a combination of measures aimed at stabilizing the market and addressing public concerns regarding housing [43][44][45] - The central economic work conference reiterated the importance of stabilizing the real estate market and preventing risks, indicating that more supportive policies are expected in the future [4][44]