定量研究 | 定量研究专题报告 证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 10 日 报告日期 分析师:郑兆磊 S0190520080006 zhengzhaolei@xyzq.com.cn 分析师:薛令轩 S0190523090001 xuelingxuan@xyzq.com.cn 相关研究 【 兴证金工】持续获取超额,严控风险 ―关注中银沪深 300 指数增强 A 暴露- ( 004881 ) 投资机会-2025.12.05 【 兴证金工 】西学东渐 -- 海外文献推 荐系列之一百八十-2025.12.03 【兴证金工】岁末年初,掘金红利资产 投资机遇-2025.12.03 乘政策技术东风,聚焦 AI 产业投资机遇 投资要点: 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 1/31 ● 政策导向叠加技术深化，AI 产业迎来配置良机 > 系统部署"人工智能+"行动,推动智能经济发展。2025年8月26日,国务院正 式发布《关于深入实施"人工智能+"行动的意见》( 简称"意见")，意见提出, 到 2030 年,智能经济成为我国经济发展的重要增长极,有望催化 AI 应用加速 落地。此外，2024 年中央经济工作会议提出的"人工智能+ ...

Policy Insights - The focus of policies is on high-quality economic development and external coordination, with significant meetings held to support the Hainan Free Trade Port as a key gateway for China's new era of opening up[3] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) held a meeting to promote the professional integration of central enterprises, emphasizing the importance of optimizing resource allocation and enhancing core competitiveness[8] Production & Infrastructure - Upstream production activities have weakened, with a slight decrease in blast furnace operating rates and stable daily consumption of thermal coal, while prices continue to rise[3] - The new housing sales volume has slightly rebounded, particularly in second-tier cities, while the second-hand housing market has significantly declined, remaining below last year's levels[3] Transportation - Urban transportation has seen a slight recovery, with air travel experiencing a significant increase, as evidenced by a rise in flight numbers and operational rates compared to last year[3] Consumer Trends - The growth rate of automobile sales has slowed, with retail and wholesale numbers continuing to rise compared to last year, but at a decelerating pace[3] Price Movements - Overall prices in the upstream sector have risen, while downstream prices have slightly decreased, particularly in vegetables, with crude oil prices showing a minor decline and iron ore prices rebounding[3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Views - The innovative drug industry chain continues to show strong performance, with the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector outperforming the CSI 300 index, rising by 3.29% while the index fell by 1.08% during the week of November 10 to November 14, 2025 [9][10] - The market potential for small nucleic acids is continuously increasing, indicating that it may become a significant technological hotspot in innovative drugs [19][22] - The sentiment in the innovative drug sector has recently declined, but the sustainability of the sector's prosperity is expected to continue, with a focus on "innovation + internationalization" [22][24] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Pharmaceutical Sector Performance - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector has shown a year-to-date increase of 22.99%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.38 percentage points [9] - The sector's valuation as of November 14, 2025, is 30.89 (PE, TTM), with a premium of 129.74% over the CSI 300 index [10] 2. Industry Events/Policy Overview - On November 14, 2025, the National Bureau of Statistics reported a stable economic performance, with industrial production increasing by 4.9% year-on-year [17] - The People's Bank of China reported an increase of 14.97 trillion yuan in RMB loans in the first ten months of 2025 [17] 3. Industry Investment Strategy - The report highlights the active business development (BD) transactions in the innovative drug sector, with significant collaborations and licensing agreements, such as the partnership between Sainty Biotech and Eli Lilly [19] - The report suggests a focus on the recovery of the medical device and traditional Chinese medicine sectors, as well as the ongoing improvement in the innovative drug industry chain [22][28] 4. Recommended Stocks - Recommended stocks include: - **Hengrui Medicine**: Expected to achieve rapid growth in both domestic and international markets [29] - **BeiGene**: Anticipated to achieve comprehensive profitability in 2025, with strong performance in its core products [30] - **Innovent Biologics**: Expected to reach a revenue target of 20 billion yuan by 2027 [31] - **Kanglong Chemical**: Projected to see significant revenue growth driven by its innovative products [32] - **WuXi AppTec**: Anticipated to maintain rapid growth in its core business and increase global production capacity [33]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market index [5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see a narrowing decline in profits in Q4 2024, with stable growth in overseas business [3]. - The company reported a revenue of 728.40 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease of 3.92% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 14.81 billion yuan, down 5.63% year-on-year [5]. - New orders have shown a steady increase, with a total of 15,187.65 billion yuan in new contracts signed in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a 3.08% year-on-year growth [5]. - The company is diversifying into green and emerging industries, with new orders in these sectors growing by 15.44% and 66.78% respectively [5]. - Cash flow has improved, with a net cash inflow of 70 billion yuan in Q3 2025 compared to the previous year [5]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 21.379 billion yuan, 21.784 billion yuan, and 22.137 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.57 yuan, 1.60 yuan, and 1.63 yuan [5]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 1,067.17 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 6.2% [4]. - The gross profit margin is expected to remain around 10.3% for 2024, gradually decreasing to 10.0% by 2027 [4]. - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to decline from 6.8% in 2024 to 5.1% in 2027 [4]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to be 5.1 for 2025, 5.0 for 2026, and 4.9 for 2027 [4].

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that the home appliance industry demonstrated resilience in Q3 2025, with revenue and profit showing steady growth, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 2.6% and a net profit increase of 4.8% [3][15][18] - The white goods sector continued to show stable growth, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 3.7%, while the kitchen appliances and lighting sectors saw a narrowing decline [3][15][25] - The small appliances sector experienced a year-on-year revenue growth of 6.4%, with notable performance from companies like Bear Electric and Beiding, which benefited from low base effects and improved internal operations [3][39] Group 2 - In the white goods segment, major companies such as Gree Electric and Midea Group reported mixed results, with Gree's revenue declining by 15.1% while Midea's increased by 9.9% [25][26] - The profitability of the white goods sector remained stable, with a year-on-year net profit increase of 3.5% and a slight decline in net profit margin by 0.1 percentage points [29][30] - The small appliances sector showed internal performance differentiation, with leading companies like Ecovacs and Roborock achieving significant revenue growth of 29.3% and 60.7% respectively [39][40] Group 3 - The black goods sector maintained stable volume and price increases, with companies like Hisense and Skyworth reporting revenue growth of 2.7% and 9.1% respectively [3][15] - The overall profitability in the black goods sector improved, with a year-on-year net profit margin increase of 0.7 percentage points for Hisense [3][18] - Investment recommendations suggest focusing on leading companies in the white goods sector such as Midea Group and Haier, as well as the black goods leader Hisense, due to their stable operational performance and dividend value [3][39]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes a strategic focus on the "15th Five-Year Plan," indicating that the most significant overseas disturbances may be gradually passing, with domestic factors such as the Fourth Plenary Session and third-quarter report verification likely to boost market risk appetite [3][9][11] - The report highlights the importance of technology growth sectors, particularly AI, military industry, and innovative pharmaceuticals, as key areas for investment opportunities [2][12][13] - The AI sector is identified as a focal point, with a focus on the global computing power supply chain and domestic innovation, particularly in GPU and semiconductor equipment [12][13] Group 2 - The military industry is expected to enter a new cycle of prosperity, supported by the "15th Five-Year Plan," which emphasizes national strategic deployment and the release of new orders [12][13] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector has seen sufficient emotional digestion, with expectations for revaluation driven by business development and global monetary easing [12][13] - The report includes a selection of "golden stocks" for November, including Tianshan Aluminum, Weiming Environmental Protection, and Sany Heavy Industry, among others, with a focus on their growth and value potential [4][8][19][22][33] Group 3 - Tianshan Aluminum reported a revenue of 22.32 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 7.3%, and a net profit of 3.34 billion yuan, reflecting an increase of 8.3% [15][16] - Weiming Environmental Protection achieved a revenue of 5.88 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with a net profit of 2.14 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 1.14% [22][23] - Sany Heavy Industry's revenue for 2024 was reported at 77.77 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.22%, and a net profit of 5.98 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 31.98% [33][35] Group 4 - The report outlines a growth strategy for Tianshan Aluminum, focusing on its integrated aluminum industry chain and cost advantages from self-supplied power generation [15][19] - Weiming Environmental Protection's new material business has begun to generate revenue and profit, indicating a potential second growth curve for the company [22][25] - Sany Heavy Industry's global strategy has shown significant results, with international revenue accounting for 63.98% of total revenue, reflecting a strong performance in overseas markets [33][35] Group 5 - The report provides a detailed earnings forecast for the selected stocks, indicating expected growth rates and profitability for the upcoming years [8][19][22] - The growth and value portfolios have been adjusted for November, highlighting companies with strong fundamentals and market positions [4][8][19][22] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring market conditions and company performance to identify potential investment opportunities [3][9][11]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Views - The report maintains a positive outlook on the photovoltaic industry, anticipating a value reconstruction driven by supply-side reforms and the end of excessive price competition [9][18]. - The solid-state battery sector is expected to accelerate its industrialization, with significant policy support and advancements in technology leading to a clearer path towards mass production [15][19]. - The AIDC electrical equipment sector is poised for growth due to high demand and technological upgrades, particularly in the context of data centers and new power supply systems [10][14]. - The wind power industry is experiencing a recovery in pricing and profitability, with a consensus forming around the need for self-regulation and adherence to pricing rules [20][22]. - The electric grid sector is entering a phase of rapid investment growth, driven by national policies aimed at enhancing smart grid infrastructure and meeting renewable energy consumption needs [23]. Summary by Sections Industry Weekly Viewpoint - The report emphasizes the positive effects of supply-side reforms in the photovoltaic sector, which are expected to lead to improved profitability and a healthier competitive landscape [9]. - The solid-state battery industry is transitioning from technology validation to preparation for large-scale production, with major companies outlining their industrialization paths [15]. - AIDC equipment demand is expected to grow, particularly with the transition to higher voltage power supply systems in data centers [10]. Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index saw a slight increase of 0.11% during the reporting period, with the power equipment sector rising by 4.29% [24][25]. Industry Tracking - The lithium battery supply chain is experiencing price increases across various materials, driven by rising demand and supply constraints [29][32]. - The photovoltaic industry is witnessing a trend of reduced losses in Q3, indicating a recovery in profitability [18][20]. - The wind power sector is expected to see continued price recovery, supported by a stable demand environment [20][22].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue of 14.82 billion yuan, down 36.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 280 million yuan, down 86.3% year-on-year [2][3] - The company's coal business faced challenges with a decrease in both sales volume and price, leading to a coal gross margin of 20.1%, down 10.4 percentage points year-on-year [2][3] - A strategic restructuring with the controlling shareholder is expected to optimize regional resource allocation and enhance pricing power in the domestic coking coal market [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 4.696 billion yuan, a decrease of 33.0% year-on-year, and a net profit of 22 million yuan, down 96.6% year-on-year [2][3] - The average coal price per ton was 723 yuan, down 29.9% year-on-year, while the cost per ton was 578 yuan, down 19.5% year-on-year [2][3] Production and Sales - In Q3 2025, the company produced 5.12 million tons of raw coal, a decrease of 25.3% year-on-year, but saw an increase in self-produced coal sales by 10.4% year-on-year [3] - The total coal sales volume for Q3 was 6.44 million tons, with a significant quarter-on-quarter increase of 18.8% [3] Profit Forecast and Investment Strategy - The company is expected to see net profits of 446 million yuan, 495 million yuan, and 570 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.18, 0.20, and 0.23 yuan [4] - The price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is projected to be 47.0, 42.4, and 36.8 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company is experiencing a slowdown in revenue growth due to supply chain transitions, but expects performance to accelerate in Q4 [2][3] - The company has announced a profit distribution plan to enhance shareholder returns, proposing a cash dividend of 2 RMB per 10 shares, totaling 80.155 million RMB [3] - The report anticipates stable gross margins and ongoing cost reduction opportunities as the company optimizes logistics and supply chain operations [3] Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: Projected total revenue for 2024A is 81.24 billion RMB, with expected growth rates of 33.7% in 2024, 11.1% in 2025, 30.4% in 2026, and 15.7% in 2027 [3] - **Net Profit Forecasts**: The company's net profit is expected to be 3.34 billion RMB in 2024, with growth rates of -19.2% in 2024, 13.6% in 2025, 36.8% in 2026, and 23.5% in 2027 [3] - **Gross Margin**: The gross margin is projected to remain stable, with a slight increase from 34.7% in 2024 to 35.3% in 2027 [3] - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: Expected to improve from 10.3% in 2024 to 14.3% in 2027 [3] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Forecasted EPS is 0.83 RMB for 2024, increasing to 1.59 RMB by 2027 [3] Market Performance - The report notes that the North American market revenue decreased by 18.8% year-on-year in Q3, while the European market revenue increased by 14.8% [3] - The company aims to enhance market share in Europe through product optimization and new product launches, while the North American market is expected to recover as production capacity shifts to Southeast Asia [3] Incentive Plans - The company has announced an incentive plan with revenue targets of 94.9 billion RMB for 2025, 118.6 billion RMB for 2026, and 136.4 billion RMB for 2027, indicating a commitment to growth [3]

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook for the Hong Kong food and beverage sector, indicating potential investment opportunities in resilient companies within the industry [2][9]. Core Insights - The report outlines six phases of the Hang Seng Consumer Staples Index, highlighting the cyclical nature of the industry and the impact of external factors such as economic conditions and policy changes on consumer demand [3][4][28]. - The analysis emphasizes the importance of identifying resilient stocks in the food and beverage sector, particularly in the upstream farming and downstream dairy product industries, as they are expected to benefit from market dynamics and policy support [6][7][53]. Summary by Sections Phase Review of the Hang Seng Consumer Staples Index - Phase 1: Downward trend due to slowing GDP and reduced consumer demand, leading to a decline in the index [3]. - Phase 2: Strong recovery driven by global economic recovery and improved earnings of leading consumer staples companies [3]. - Phase 3: Period of volatility influenced by trade tensions and tightening global liquidity [3]. - Phase 4: Rapid increase in the index due to the rigid demand for essential consumption during the pandemic [3]. - Phase 5: Continuous decline influenced by repeated pandemic disruptions and rising raw material costs [4]. - Phase 6: Valuation recovery initiated by domestic consumption policies and inflow of long-term capital [4][28]. Investment Opportunities in the Food and Beverage Sector - Upstream farming opportunities are highlighted, with a focus on the dairy and beef sectors, where prices are expected to stabilize and rise due to supply constraints and recovering demand [6][44]. - Downstream dairy product opportunities are supported by recent policies aimed at boosting demand and improving market competition, which will benefit leading companies in the sector [7][53]. Investment Recommendations - Companies such as Yurun Agriculture (09858.HK) and Modern Farming (01117.HK) are recommended for their strong cash flow and potential to benefit from the anticipated recovery in raw milk prices [9][57]. - The report suggests that policy support will create upward momentum for companies like Mengniu Dairy (02319.HK) and H&H International Holdings (01112.HK), which are positioned to capitalize on market opportunities [10][57]. - The potential for industry restructuring and the emergence of leading companies is noted, particularly in the coconut water segment, with recommendations for IFBH (06603.HK) [11][58].