Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Views - The licensing agreement for the third-generation BCR-ABL inhibitor, Olverembatin, with Takeda marks a significant milestone, with an upfront payment of $1.1 billion and potential total payments of $1.2 billion over the next two years, along with double-digit sales royalties [3]. - Olverembatin is projected to be a best-in-class product with overseas peak sales expected to exceed $1 billion, supported by FDA approval for a global Phase III clinical trial in February 2024 [3]. - Takeda's established sales and clinical team in hematology is expected to maximize the market potential for Olverembatin, leveraging their experience with the first-generation BCR-ABL inhibitor, Ponatinib [3]. - APG-2575 is anticipated to file for NDA this year, potentially becoming the second Bcl2 inhibitor to be launched globally, with significant expansion potential in various indications [4]. - The company is expected to see rapid revenue growth driven by Olverembatin's sales and the $1 billion option payment, with projected revenues of RMB 1.02 billion, RMB 473.52 million, and RMB 918.63 million for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4]. Financial Forecasts - Total revenue for 2022 was RMB 211.86 million, with a forecasted increase to RMB 225.09 million in 2023, and a significant jump to RMB 1.02 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 353.84% [2]. - The company is expected to incur net losses, with projected net profits of RMB (882.92) million in 2022, RMB (925.64) million in 2023, and RMB (220.63) million in 2024 [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to improve from RMB (2.81) in 2022 to RMB (0.70) in 2024, indicating a potential recovery in profitability [2].
亚盛医药-B：奥雷巴替尼授权落地，全球创新步入收获期，海外价值逐步兑现