吉布提：选定问题（英）2024

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the Djibouti industry. Core Insights - Djibouti's economy has experienced significant growth driven by infrastructure investments, with real GDP increasing by 50% between 2013 and 2021. However, this growth has not translated into substantial labor market improvements, with unemployment rates remaining high, particularly among youth [11][12][40]. - The capital-intensive nature of Djibouti's growth model has limited job creation, leading to a structural unemployment rate that has increased from 24% to 26.8% during the investment boom [15][18]. - There is a notable mismatch between the skills of the labor force and the demands of the economy, exacerbated by a lack of vocational training and adult learning opportunities [11][22][23]. Summary by Sections Labor Market Dynamics - Djibouti's economic boom has not resulted in significant formal labor market gains, with an unemployment rate of 47% in 2017 and labor force participation at only 45% [13][40]. - The analysis of Okun's Law indicates that job creation has become less sensitive to economic growth, with the impact of a 1% output gap on unemployment declining significantly during the investment boom [15][18][19]. Human Capital and Education - The education system has improved, with gross primary enrollment increasing from 51.5% in 2004 to nearly 100% in 2022. However, secondary school enrollment remains low at around 50% [23][25]. - There is a pressing need for increased investment in health and education to build human capital, as current spending is below that of peer countries [41][43]. Fiscal Space and Governance - Djibouti's fiscal space has shrunk over the last decade, with a declining revenue-to-GDP ratio and poor governance of state-owned enterprises limiting the mobilization of dividends [41][42]. - The report emphasizes the importance of reforms in SOE governance, tax policy, and revenue administration to enhance fiscal space and support inclusive growth [42][54]. Economic Diversification - The report suggests that diversifying the economy away from reliance on port activities could foster job creation, with sectors like construction, tourism, and agriculture identified as potential growth areas [27][28][40]. - Significant investments are required to develop alternative sectors, improve infrastructure, and enhance connectivity to support economic diversification [29][32].